ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

MPs have thus far had more chance of being promoted if they were an "A-Lister"

By Jonathan Isaby

After the general election last year, I noted that of the original 100 members of the Priority List (A-List), 38 had been elected MPs - equivalent to 26% of the 147 new MPs elected in 2010.

So if these were the people who the party leadership was keenest to see on the green benches, are they similarly being fast-tracked with promotions now they are in the Commons?

The following A-Listers have already been given PPS or party appointments:

1 A-Lister was appointed a party vice-chairman last July

• Andrew Stephenson - Vice-Chairman (Youth)

2 A-Listers were appointed Parliamentary Private Secretaries last September

• Angie Bray - PPS to Francis Maude
• Conor Burns - PPS to Hugo Swire

5 A-Listers were appointed Parliamentary Private Secretaries last November

• Nick Boles - PPS to Nick Gibb
• George Freeman - PPS to Gregory Barker
• Esther McVey - PPS to Chris Grayling
• Mark Menzies - PPS to Charles Hendry
• Anna Soubry - PPS to Simon Burns

That accounts for 8 out of a total of 24 of the new intake who have already been given roles (22 PPSs and 2 vice-chairmen).

In other words, exactly one third of those have been promoted were A-Listers, whilst two thirds of those who have been promoted were not A-Listers.

So, proportionately:

• 8 of the 38 A-List new MPs have received preferment - 21%
• 16 of the 109 non-A-List new MPs have received preferment - 15%

All of which suggests that the A-Listers have thus far been marginally more likely to get a first post - which is not entirely surprising, given the leadership's eagerness to have them in Parliament in the first place.

Later in the week I will investigate whether the A-Listers have been more or less inclined than their colleagues to rebel against the Government.

Simon Baynes to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd at the Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

Simon Baynes has been selected this week to contest Dwyfor Meirionnydd at May's Welsh Assembly election.

The seat was created for the 2007 Welsh Assembly election (being represented by Daffydd Elis-Thomas, the Plaid Cymru Presiding Officer at Cardiff Bay, who also represented much of the area under previous boundaries) and Simon fought the newly-created Westminster seat on the same boundaries at last year's general election. On that occasion he attained an impressive 7.3% swing from Plaid to the Conservatives, overtaking Labour to take second place.

Simon is a Powys County Councillor and a Deputy Chairman of the Welsh Conservatives and you can read more about him on his website.

Gerry Adams is formally appointed to an office of profit under the Crown, disqualifying him from the Commons

By Jonathan Isaby

26th January 3.30pm update:

It's official; David Cameron told the Commons at PMQs and here is the formal notice from the Treasury:

Gerry Adams has been appointed to an office of profit under the Crown* in order that he could vacate the seat he won but never took in the Commons.

Sinn Fein had attempted to avoid this. UTV quoted their spokesman as saying earlier in the week:

"We couldn't give a toss [about these rules]. He's not going to apply for these offices. He has sent in a resignation letter like any ordinary person. We want a byelection in West Belfast. There's no written constitution; they just make it up anyway. It's strange men who parade around in tights. Republicans are not losing any sleep over this."

But as John Bercow told the Commons yesterday:

"There are procedures to be observed, and observed they must be."

The questions now is: who by tradition, moves the writ for a by-election, and when, if there is no sitting MP in the Commons from the party of the outgoing MP? The precedent is the second by-election in Fermanagh and South Tyrone of 1981, following the death of Bobby Sands, but I cannot pinpoint the Hansard reference...

* Nick Watt of the Guardian has a statement from Adams claiming he never applied for the office of profit under the Crown.

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In what was a busy day politically, it may have ecaped your notice that Gerry Adams - who did of course never take his seat at Westminster - yesterday resigned as MP for Belfast West. This he has done in order to contest a seat at the Irish general election on March 11th, the BBC reported.

Although I'm not sure who will move the writ (given that there is no member of Sinn Fein in the Commons to do so, and usually - though not always - it is someone from the sitting MP's party who does so), it will prompt a by-election in what is one of the safest seats in the United Kingdom.

At the general election, Adam held it with a majority of 17,579 over the SDLP candidate. The DUP trailed in third with 7.6% of the vote, with the UCUNF candidate losing his deposit with 3.1% of the vote.

How to join action days in Barnsley Central ahead of parliamentary by-election

By Jonathan Isaby

I am prompted by Emma Pidding, the National Volunteer By-Election Co-Ordinator, to publicise two action days which are upcoming in Barnsley Central. A parliamentary by-election will be pending there as soon as sitting MP Eric Illsley formally resigns his seat in advance of him being sentenced following his guilty pleas to three counts of false accounting.

The action days will take place on Friday 21st January and Saturday 22nd January, between 10am and 6pm, meeting at the campaign centre situated at 9a High Street, Penistone, S36 6BR (Tel: 01226 762155). It is situated half a mile from Penistone railway station.

If you would like to join one of the action days, please email [email protected].

Owen Meredith selected to fight Caerphilly at the Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

Owen Meredith has been selected this week to fight his home seat of Caerphilly at the Welsh Assembly election in May.

He said on his selection:

"It is a huge honour to have the opportunity to contest Caerphilly in this election. I was born and brought up in Caerphilly and it has been my family home for more than 35 years.

“There is so much potential here, but also a lot of problems we need to work on. I want to see Caerphilly thrive and be an economic centre in South Wales. I am deeply concerned by the state we are in, as a town and a nation. It is amazing to think that after 12 years of devolution, Wales is the worst performing economy in the UK. In the right hands, the Welsh Assembly has the power to do so much more for the people of Caerphilly and the rest of Wales.

“Every day I am struck by how much better things could be. My campaign will be about working together to make the positive changes that so many of us have been waiting for, for so long. Building an enterprising local economy; supporting local young people to gain the right education and skills; and protecting the most vulnerable people in society – this is our chance to make that change happen.”

There is lots more about Owen on his website.

Equalisation of constituency sizes will create unnatural seats like "Devonwall", says report

Tim Montgomerie

The equalisation of constituency sizes - a reform that will significantly address the advantage currently enjoyed by Labour from the division of seats across the UK - will create many unnatural seats. That is the predictable conclusion of a new report written by Lewis Baston for Democratic Audit.

The BBC highlights some of the consequences:

• "Urban seats in cities like Doncaster and Coventry would have to take in countryside wards with few shared interests";
• "One constituency would have to unite areas in the Isle of Wight and Hampshire";
• "The island of Anglesey would be joined to Bangor across the Menai Strait"; and
• "A "Devonwall" seat would give one MP responsibility for parts of Cornwall and Devon."

Many small conservatives will object to these unnatural seats but they are a necessary consequence of eliminating the disparity whereby "the Conservative MP for the Isle of Wight, Andrew Turner, was elected by 103,480 voters, while the member for Arfon in north Wales, Plaid Cymru's Hywel Williams, answers to 42,998 people."

"The coalition would have won in Oldham East had it fielded just one candidate"

Tim Montgomerie

Over at The Spectator David Blackburn writes: "The coalition would have won in Oldham East had it fielded just one candidate."

Really?

Let's just take a look at the numbers...

• Debbie Abrahams for Labour won 14,718 votes.
• Elwyn Watkins for the Liberal Democrats won 11,160 and Conservative Kashif Ali won 4,481 making a total of 15,641.

On the face of it that would translate into a Coalition majority of 923.

But would every Tory voter and every Lib Dem voter support a Coalition candidate?

For David Blackburn's statement to be true you'd need 94% of Tory and LibDem voters to support the Coalition candidate and none of the other 6% to support the Labour candidate. I just don't think that would happen.

Last week an Angus Reid poll found that only 83% of Tory voters would support a Coalition candidate and the number of LibDem voters who would do the same would be even lower.

I've heaped praise on Mark Pritchard for opposing Coalition candidates but he has shot his own argument in the foot in the last 24 hours by backing such candidates in by-elections. We need the Conservative Party to fight every seat in every part of the country. Coalition candidates in by-elections would offend many of our core supporters.

Labour hold Oldham East and Saddleworth

By Jonathan Isaby

1.53am RESULT - LAB HOLD

Debbie Abrahams (Labour) - 14,718 (42.1%; +10.3%)
Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat) - 11,160 (32.0%; +0.3%)
Kashif Ali (Conservative) - 4,481 (12.8%; -13.6%)
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) - 2,029 (5.8%; +2.0%)
Derek Adams (BNP) - 1,560 (4.5%; -1.3%)
Peter Allen (Green) - 530 (1.5%)
The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party) - 145 (0.4%)
Stephen Morris (English Democrats) - 144 (0.4%)
Loz Kaye (Pirate Party) - 96 (0.3%)
David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis Party) - 67 (0.2%)

Labour majority: 3,558
Lib Dem to Lab swing of 5.0%
Con to Lab swing of 11.9%
Turnout: 48.1%

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The polls closed at 10pm in Oldham East and Saddleworth and with the result expected around 1.30am I will try and pull together the rumours that are doing the rounds about the result.

As of 11.45pm:

• Turnout is said to be between 40% and 45%.
• Labour insider John McTernan is predicting a victory for his candidate by 5,000. 
• Tory campaign manager Andrew Stephenson is quoted by The Guardian's Andrew Sparrow as saying: "Things have not gone as we would have hoped... Whoever starts in third place is going to get squeezed... It appears that our vote has been squeezed quite strongly, particularly by the Lib Dems."

Midnight: LabourList predicts Labour majority of "between 3 and 5,000"

12.10am Tim Farron, Lib Dem President, tells Sky News that they have come "a decent second"

12.12am Joey Jones from Sky News say turnout is "just over 48%"

12.30am Laura Kuenssberg on the BBC says Labour majority could be "up to 3,000"

12.35am Tory Deputy Chairman Michael Fallon on the BBC is singing from the same hymn sheet as Andrew Stephenson: "If you're the third party in a by-election you get squeezed"

12.40am Turnout formally confirmed as 48.06%.

12.41am Andy Burnham still downplaying expectations: "It's looking promising, it's not in the bag yet"

12.50am Andrew Sparrow predicts "a Labour majority of at least 4,500"

1.05am On the BBC, Andrew Stephenson says nine Cabinet ministers visited during the campaign and that there were 300 Tory activists in the seat last Saturday. He says that the Tory position has slipped from the general election but insists the Tories have held a "reasonable third place".

1.12am Debbie Abrahams, Labour candidate and now certain to be the newest MP in the Commons, has arrived at the count. She is greeted with a bouquet of flowers...

1.35am Conservative sources estimate the parties' votes "crudely" as Lab 14,000, Lib Dem 10,000 and Con 4,000, with UKIP in fourth place. They point to the fact that Labour have started third in four by-elections over the last 13 years while they were in government - Winchester, Romsey, Cheadle and Henley - and lost their deposits at all of those contests. The Conservatives tonight are "nowehere close" to losing the deposit like that.

A by-election is now due to take place in Leicester South

By Jonathan Isaby

March 5th update:

LabourList reports that Sir Peter Soulsby, the Labour MP for Leicester South, has (as expected) today been selected as Labour candidate for Mayor of Leicester.

As such, he has announced his intention to resign as an MP to concentrate on the mayoral campaign and it is strongly expected that the by-election will take place on May 5th, coinciding with local elections and the AV referendum.

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After today's by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth, we know another is already on the cards in Barnsley Central, which is being vacated by Eric Illsley.

But Sky News' Jon Craig reveals that there is a high possibility of a third by-election before too long:

Now, I can reveal, there is likely to be a third byelection, in Leicester South, because Labour MP Sir Peter Soulsby is tipped to become his party's candidate for Mayor of Leicester in an election in May and is expected to quit the Commons if he is successful.

The selection of Labour's mayoral candidate in Leicester is due in late February or early March, I'm told, and senior Shadow Cabinet allies of Ed Miliband tell me Labour would like to hold the Barnsley and Leicester South byelections on the same day.

Leicester South was the scene of a by-election in 2004 when the Lib Dems temporarily snatched the seat from Labour, only for Sir Peter to take it back in 2005. He held it last May wit a majority of 8,808 over the Lib Dems. The full result was:

Labour - Sir Peter Soulsby                    21,479  45.6% (+6.2)
Liberal Democrat - Parmjit Singh Gill    12,671  26.9% (-3.7)
Conservative - Ross Grant                    10,066  21.4% (+3.6)
BNP - Adrian Waudby                             1,418    3.0% (+3.0)
Green - Dave Dixey                                    770   1.6% (-1.6)
UKIP - Christopher Lucas                           720   1.5% (+1.5)

Andrew Stephenson MP: Labour’s negative and disingenuous campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth is based on dodgy claims, shaky statistics and lies

Andrew Stephenson is MP for Pendle, a Conservative Party vice chairman and Campaign Manager for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election.

As we enter the last few days of the by-election campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth, it’s no surprise that Labour are resorting to dodgy claims and shaky statistics to hold on to the seat.

In contrast to Kashif Ali’s positive campaign, Labour are misleading voters about public spending and, more specifically, police budget cuts in this by-election.

The first piece of chicanery surrounds what they would do, if they were in government, to deal with their disastrous legacy of debt. Their candidate in Oldham, Debbie Abrahams, has said there is a ‘strong Labour alternative’ to our deficit reduction programme.  But we all know, from Ed Miliband’s admission that Labour’s policies are a blank piece of paper, they haven’t provided a credible alternative at all.  It’s simply wrong to say they have.

The next aspect of their misleading campaign lies in the statement found on much of their literature: ‘wrong cuts, wrong time’.

Let’s deal with ‘wrong cuts’ first. 

Eric Illsley sentenced to a year in jail after his guilty plea to false accounting over his expenses

By Jonathan Isaby

February 10th 4.45pm update:

Illsley has just been sentenced to a year in jail. The BBC has more.

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Eric Illsley, the MP for Barnsley Central, has just pleaded guilty to all three charges of false accounting relating to more than £14,000 of his parliamentary expenses claims, reports the BBC.

Unlike David Chaytor - the ex-Labour MP who was jailed last week - Illsley did not stand down at the election and was returned as a Labour MP last May with a majority of over 11,000. It was only after he was charged - a fortnight after the election - that Labour withdrew the whip from him.

He wil not be sentenced for another four weeks, so it remains to be seen whether he, like Chaytor, is given a custodial sentence. Any MP sentenced to serve 12 months or more in prison is automatically disqualified from retaining their seat.

Even if he is not given that long a custodial sentence, it seems hard to imagine how he could realistically remain an MP in the circumstances.

So a Barnsley Central by-election looks a strong possibility.

The result last May was:

Labour - Eric Illsley                      17,487    47.3%    -10.4%
Liberal Democrat - Chris Wiggin    6,394    17.3%    +0.7
Conservative - Piers Tempest        6,388    17.3%    +2.5
BNP - Ian Sutton                            3,307      8.9%    +4.4
UKIP - David Silver                        1,727      4.7%
Independent - Donald Wood             732      2.0%
Independent - Tony Devoy                610      1.6%
Socialist Labour - Terry Robinson     356      1.0%

> The BBC notes that since the Second World War two sitting MPs have been disqualified after being imprisoned - Captain Peter Baker (Conservative) in 1954, and John Stonehouse (Labour) in 1976. Labour MP Terry Fields was imprisoned for non-payment of community charge in 1991, but only for 60 days, so was not disqualified.

Update: The ever well-informed Anthony Wells of UK Polling Report corrects the BBC assertion:

No MP has ever been disqualified under the law banning people serving sentences over a year. The law was only passed in 1981 following the election and death of Bobby Sands, hence preventing a second hunger striker standing in the second by-election.  Capt Peter Baker was expelled by a resolution of the House at his own request (he wrote to the Speaker after his imprisonment and asked the House to vote to expel him), Stonehouse applied to the Chiltern Hundreds.

7.15pm update:

Pressure is growing on Eric Illsley to resign as an MP from both the Government and his former party.

David Cameron's spokesman said:that:

"If someone has defrauded the people they are there to represent, that is quite an untenable position."

Meanwhile, Ed Miliband said:

"I don't think [Illsley] can be a credible voice for his constituents having pleaded guilty to such a serious offence."

Andrew Sparrow cites Labour sources as indicating that, "if Illsley does not resign, the party will call for a vote in the Commons to have him expelled".

Wednesday 2.15pm update:

Sky News reporting that Eric Illsley says he will quit as an MP before his next court appearance in four weeks' time), causing a by-election in Barnsley Central.

2.30pm Here's his full statement (hat tip Total Politics)

“I would like to apologise to my constituents, family and friends, following my court appearance, for the distress and embarrassment caused by my actions that I deeply, deeply regret. I have begun to wind down my parliamentary office, following which I will resign from Parliament before my next court appearance. I will be making no further comment.”

Lib Dem literature in Oldham East and Saddleworth continues to vilify Phil Woolas

By Jonathan Isaby

Following on from looking at the Conservative and Labour literature being distributed in Oldham East and Saddleworth, below is a selection of that being pumped out by the Liberal Demcrats.

There are several common themes: the oh-so-familiar bar charts and very stongly worded attacks on the seat's former Labour MP Phil Woolas, whose disqualification has caused the by-election. One leaflet below states that "it's time to clean up politics and put an end to Labour's personal American-style negative campaigning" several lines below the statement "Labour and Phil Woolas have brought shame on the area".

There is, as with the other parties' campaigns, quite a bit about crime and policing: the Lib Dems make the point that the police are facing cutbacks due to Gordon Brown's Government spending money it didn't have.

Labour heading for thumping victory in Oldham with two polls showing the Lib Dems 17% behind

Tim Montgomerie

Two polls tonight suggest Labour is heading for a thumping victory in Oldham East and Saddleworth.

• An ICM survey of 504 voters in Oldham East and Saddleworth finds the Labour candidate is on 44% (up 12%) since the election and the Lib Dem candidate is on 27% (down 5%). The Tory vote has been squeezed - falling from 26% last May to 18% now.
• A poll of 1,503 voters in the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, undertaken by Lord Ashcroft - and published in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph - suggests that Labour has the support of 46% of voters (up 14% since the General Election) and only 29% will vote Liberal Democrat (-3%). The Conservatives are in third place on 15% (down 11% on last May's result). Only 11% of those surveyed said that they would change their mind.

On the back of these two polls the Lib Dems will undoubtedly be distributing leaflets this week attempting to squeeze the Tory vote further but 17% looks too big a gap to close.

DETAIL FROM THE LORD ASHCROFT/ SUNDAY TELEGRAPH POLL

The biggest factor changing people's votes appears to be the tuition fees vote. 28% said the Lib Dem/ Coalition u-turn was the biggest single factor influencing their vote. The next biggest factor at 10% was "voting tactically/ a Conservative vote is a wasted vote". 5% said "didn't like Phil Woolas" was their primary reason.

Labour's campaign literature in Oldham virtually ignores Ed Miliband and concentrates on attacking "police cuts"

By Jonathan Isaby

After showing you some of the Conservaitve campaign literature being distributed in Oldham East and Saddelworth, here's a look at what Labour have pumped out as their main election address.

In the form of an eight-page A5 booklet, much of it is devoted to fluffy personal details about the candidate, whilst the big political message is the "Save Our Police" campaign, opposing cuts to the police. I reproduce a second flyer on police cuts below the election address.

Most strikingly, there is no reference in the text of the address to Ed Miliband or any national Labour politician. There is just a small picture of the new Labour leader at the bottom of page 7.

The Conservative campaign in Oldham East and Saddleworth turns its fire on Labour

By Jonathan Isaby

As we enter the fnal weekend before the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, the Conservative campaign enters a new phase, with a new swathe of leaflets turning the fire onto Labour.

In order to volunteer and help deliver some of them, or even to register your desire to do some telephone canvassing from wherever you are, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

The new leaflets each feature one side contianing a positive list of Coalition Government achievements thus far:

But the reverse side features one of eight different attacks on Labour, as below:

Kashif Ali's literature shows what a positive campaign the Conservatives are fighting in Oldham East and Saddleworth

By Jonathan Isaby

As promised yesterday, below is a look at the kind of literature the Conservatives are distributing in Oldham East and Saddleworth. In all cases, please click to enlarge.

In order to volunteer and help deliver some of it, or even to register your desire to do some telephone canvassing from wherever you are, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

The first electoral address highlighted the main themes of Kashif Ali's positive campaign in terms of the local issues he is championing, as well as including a clean campaign pledge not dissimilar to that used to good effect in Norwich South in 2009:

Below are the pages from an In Touch leaflet being delievered across the constituency. It highlights the first class local credentials of the Conservative candidate; explains why the Spending Review was necessary; includes a piece by Baroness Newlove about the work she is doing to promote active, safer communities; and promotes positive things the "Conservative-led coalition" has already achieved.

David Cameron says the Conservatives are "fighting very hard for every vote" as he becomes the first Tory Prime Minister in nearly 50 years to campaign in a by-election

By Jonathan Isaby

David Cameron is today visiting Oldham East and Saddleworth to campaign for Conservative by-election candidate, Kashif Ali.

This will be the first time in nearly fifty years that a Conservative Prime Minister has gone out on the stump in such a contest: Macmillan returned to his old Stockton seat to support the Conservative candidate in a by-election there in 1962, whilst Douglas-Home did of course fight and win a by-election himself after disclaiming his peerage on his appointment as Prime Minister in 1963.

But Heath, Thatcher and Major all opted never to campaign in by-elections, with Wilson and Callaghan taking the same view.

Tony Blair campaigned in Uxbridge in the summer of 1997 - where Labour's Andy Slaughter was roundly defeated by John Randall - and his only other by-election outing as PM was again unsuccessful, in Eddisbury.

Gordon Brown went to two by-elections as Prime Minister - Glenrothes and Glasgow North East, both in his native Scotland.

Check back later for coverage of the Prime Minister's visit to Oldham.

6.15pm update:

David Cameron has now been to Oldham East and he said that the party was "fighting very hard for every vote" and that Kashif Ali would make "a very good Member of Parliament":

"This is actually about choosing a new Member of Parliament for Oldham and Saddleworth. That's the key thing and who's going to make the best candidate to replace the Labour MP who had a seat taken away from him because of the way he behaved during the election. It's about someone to stand up for this area in parliament. Our candidate is very strong and I think he'd do a very good job... I'm the first Prime Minister for years to campaign in an English by-election… There were lots of byelections in England and you didn't see Gordon Brown and you didn't see Tony Blair."

Earlier in the day he spoke at an event at which he answered journalists' questions about the by-election. His reply is 30 seconds into the clip.

With a week to go until the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, Kashif Ali needs and deserves all our help

By Jonathan Isaby

I returned to London late last night from a 48-hour trip to Oldham East and Saddleworth, where I saw at first hand the Conservative by-election campaign in action and stuffed more envelopes, delivered more leaflets and hit more doorsteps than I cared to count in support of our candidate, Kashif Ali.

Readers will be aware that before Christmas I was not uncritical of the party's perceived sense of urgency (or lack thereof) about fighting the by-election; but be in no doubt, Kashif's team, expertly headed by Darren Mott from CCHQ and Andy Stephenson MP, are in no way giving the other candidates an easy ride - they are fighting for every vote and they deserve the help and support of all Conservative members.

This week has seen a steady stream of senior members of the Government visiting the seat, including Andrew Lansley, Oliver Letwin, Andrew Mitchell and Patrick McLoughlin, along with dozens of other MPs, many bringing activists from their patch with them. There will be many more there today and over the coming days.

Many of those who have not been able to get to Oldham in person have been doing telephone canvassing from wherever they are.

At the general election - with a very small local party membership and without target seat status and all its associated benefits - Kashif was less than 2,500 votes behind the victorious Labour MP. He was the only one of the candidates from the three main parties to increase his share of the vote.  

So I hope that with a week to go, all Conservatives reading this will be moved to volunteer to help him, preferably by paying a visit to the seat, or alternatively by volunteering to do telephone canvassing from the comfort of wherever you are. It is especially important that a large number of people are there on the ground to help get out the vote on polling day, next Thursday.

To volunteer, please email the campaign or call 07506 028382 or 07939 622561. Click here to download the map of where to find the campaign HQ.

Over the coming days I will be looking at some of the parties' campaign themes and reproducing some of the literature being distributed.