Tim Montgomerie
After the Crewe by-election I was given a briefing by one of the CCHQ hands who had masterminded the Tory triumph. The secret, I was told, was to win the first fortnight and define the campaign.
Bearing this in mind it is difficult to see the Tories doing well in Oldham East and Saddleworth. Paul Goodman was noting a lack of urgency six weeks ago. Last Friday Jonathan Isaby blogged the contrasts between previous mobilisation efforts and the low energy campaign in support of our candidate Kashif Ali. Yesterday, in The Sunday Telegraph, Melissa Kite reported that David Cameron had ordered the cancellation of a leaflet delivery by dozens of volunteers. She wrote:
"Mr Cameron is said to be “desperately worried” about the prospect of a poor Lib Dem showing which could dent Nick Clegg’s credibility and destabilise the Coalition. He fuelled speculation of an unofficial pact to give the Libs a clear run at Labour when he told my colleague James Kirkup that he “wished them well” in the contest on January 13. Now one senior Tory activist tells me: “Cameron told us explicitly and in no uncertain terms, do not go to Oldham. Even a thousand extra votes won by us could make it difficult for the Lib Dems. We were told to stay away.”
I rang and txted various members of the Cabinet yesterday and was able to establish the following:
- William Hague - long-term overseer of the party's coperations in the north - will definitely be campaigning in 'Old and Sad'.
- Eric Pickles will also be there. I haven't missed a by-election since 1974, he told me, and won't be missing this one.
- Liam Fox is currently in the Gulf visiting troops for Christmas but he expects to visit.
- Another definite is International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell.
What was clear from my ring round was that the Cabinet hadn't been asked to go. One Cabinet minister said that he would go if ordered but, so far, there hadn't even been any discussion of the campaign.
The Cabinet have, however, been asked to identify any and all ways in which they can help the Liberal Democrats. "Give them anything you can" had been the message from Number 10.
I spoke to a senior Tory official last night and explained what I had discovered. "A Lib Dem victory in Old and Sad would be the best thing that could happen to the Coalition", I was told. "Even a good showing would stabilise things. If the Lib Dems can pull off a good show when they are at 8% in the polls it would give Nick Clegg all he needs to reassure his party that dismal poll ratings don't mean much."
What did Old and Sad Tories make of this 'help-the-LibDems' strategy? My contact laughed. "Don't be surprised if a lot of bling is thrown in their direction in the months ahead. And don't bet against there being a Lord Ali of Oldham sometime in the next two years!"
He also discounted the bettiong on the by-election. "It's not as bad as most think for the Liberals. We wouldn't be helping them if we didn't think it was worth it."
