ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Andrew Bridgen MP: All Conservatives should come and help Kashif Ali in Oldham East and Saddleworth - not least to help crush talk of Coaliton candidates in future elections

Andrew Bridgen is Conservative MP for North West Leicestershire.

I have recently read disturbing reports suggesting that the Conservative Party has a lack of commitment towards winning the forthcoming by-election in Oldham East and Saddleworth.

There has been a lot written, not only in the national newspapers, but also on this site, which has questioned our Party’s appetite to compete, even with speculation that some would prefer another party to be victorious or, at least, that they should not lose too badly.

I write this article as an entreaty to all members, supporters and activists of our great Party, a Party which has amply demonstrated that it has a formidable by-election winning team and strategy over the past few years.  Do not let the murky waters of coalition politics or the ill-informed media obscure your vision of the prize which is within our grasp of winning in Oldham East and Saddleworth.  I have spoken to CCHQ staffers who are giving up their Christmas holiday to run a full and effective campaign to win the seat. Our campaign has already delivered four leaflets and is now delivering the election address, but we need to do more.

We were just 2,400 votes behind Labour at the General Election last May which, if turnout is reduced, could now be far less in actuality.  Without a concerted Conservative effort we are gifting this seat to the Socialists, something I personally find unpalatable.

I will be travelling up to Oldham today with a team of my campaign activists - these are the battle-hardened veterans who helped us to achieve a 12% swing from Labour in North West Leicestershire at the General Election.

We may not all be enamoured by compromises being made due to being in coalition Government but we are, I hope, all dedicated and committed Conservatives and our candidate, Kashif Ali, has the right to expect and demand our full support.  I intend to give it to him and I hope you will too. For those who oppose any thought of coalition candidates at the next General Election I can assure you a poor Conservative result in this by-election makes this more, not less, likely.

There are already too many Labour MPs in Parliament given the damage the last Government inflicted across all areas of our society, let there not be another one.  All that socialism gives us is an equal share of misery and all that is required for bad things to happen is for good men (and women) to do nothing.

Let's get more troops on the ground and fight to win Oldham East and Saddleworth for the Conservative Party.

Ten candidates will contest the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election (but no Nick Griffin)

By Jonathan Isaby

Yesterday saw the official close of nominations for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election, to be held on Thursday January 13th.

There are ten candidates standing, with the only surprise being that BNP leader and North West MEP, Nick Griffin, who had announced his intention to stand here, will not be on the ballot paper after all. Instead his party is putting up an ex-publican.

The candidates are:

• Debbie Abrahams (Labour)
• Derek Adams (BNP)
• Kashif Ali (Conservative)
• Peter Allen (Green)
• David Bishop (Bus-Pass Elvis Party)
• The Flying Brick (Monster Raving Loony Party)
• Loz Kaye (Pirate Party)
• Stephen Morris (English Democrats)
• Paul Nuttall (UKIP)
• Elwyn Watkins (Liberal Democrat)

The full result at the general election was:

Woolas (Lab) - 14,186 (31.9%; -10.7)
Watkins (LIb Dem) - 14,083 (31.6%; -0.5)
Ali (Con) - 11,773 (26.4%; +8.7)
Stott (BNP) - 2,546 (5.7%)
Bentley (UKIP) - 1,720 (3.9%; +1.8)
Nazir (Christian) - 212 (0.5%)

Hague, Pickles, Fox and Mitchell all pledge to visit Oldham East and Saddleworth... but is it already too late?

Tim Montgomerie

After the Crewe by-election I was given a briefing by one of the CCHQ hands who had masterminded the Tory triumph. The secret, I was told, was to win the first fortnight and define the campaign.

Bearing this in mind it is difficult to see the Tories doing well in Oldham East and Saddleworth. Paul Goodman was noting a lack of urgency six weeks ago. Last Friday Jonathan Isaby blogged the contrasts between previous mobilisation efforts and the low energy campaign in support of our candidate Kashif Ali. Yesterday, in The Sunday Telegraph, Melissa Kite reported that David Cameron had ordered the cancellation of a leaflet delivery by dozens of volunteers. She wrote:

"Mr Cameron is said to be “desperately worried” about the prospect of a poor Lib Dem showing which could dent Nick Clegg’s credibility and destabilise the Coalition. He fuelled speculation of an unofficial pact to give the Libs a clear run at Labour when he told my colleague James Kirkup that he “wished them well” in the contest on January 13. Now one senior Tory activist tells me: “Cameron told us explicitly and in no uncertain terms, do not go to Oldham. Even a thousand extra votes won by us could make it difficult for the Lib Dems. We were told to stay away.”

I rang and txted various members of the Cabinet yesterday and was able to establish the following:

• William Hague - long-term overseer of the party's coperations in the north - will definitely be campaigning in 'Old and Sad'.
• Eric Pickles will also be there. I haven't missed a by-election since 1974, he told me, and won't be missing this one.
• Liam Fox is currently in the Gulf visiting troops for Christmas but he expects to visit.
• Another definite is International Development Secretary Andrew Mitchell.

What was clear from my ring round was that the Cabinet hadn't been asked to go. One Cabinet minister said that he would go if ordered but, so far, there hadn't even been any discussion of the campaign.

The Cabinet have, however, been asked to identify any and all ways in which they can help the Liberal Democrats. "Give them anything you can" had been the message from Number 10.

I spoke to a senior Tory official last night and explained what I had discovered. "A Lib Dem victory in Old and Sad would be the best thing that could happen to the Coalition", I was told. "Even a good showing would stabilise things. If the Lib Dems can pull off a good show when they are at 8% in the polls it would give Nick Clegg all he needs to reassure his party that dismal poll ratings don't mean much."

What did Old and Sad Tories make of this 'help-the-LibDems' strategy? My contact laughed. "Don't be surprised if a lot of bling is thrown in their direction in the months ahead. And don't bet against there being a Lord Ali of Oldham sometime in the next two years!"

He also discounted the bettiong on the by-election. "It's not as bad as most think for the Liberals. We wouldn't be helping them if we didn't think it was worth it."

Is CCHQ taking the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election seriously?

By Jonathan Isaby

1am update: David Cameron's remarks to The Daily Telegraph's James Kirkup don't exactly suggest a burning will to win.  See here.

11am update: ConHome appears to have jolted CCHQ into some action. At 10.44am the Candidates Department sent an email to those on the Candidates List entitled "Can you help Kashif Ali and his team in Oldham East and Saddleworth?" and inviting them to assist the campaign as all MPs were yesterday...

---

I really hope the answer to the question in the title above is yes - and I would be delighted to see any evidence seeking to prove me wrong. Please email me if you have any.

But I am detecting increasing concerns from various quarters that the party machine is not putting its all behind Kashif Ali's campaign to win the seat in which he was less than 2,500 votes behind the winning candidate in May.

Many of those I have spoken to fear that CCHQ has decided not to fight Oldham East and Saddleworth seriously in order to maximise the chances of the (second-placed) Lib Dems gaining the seat from Labour.

My evidence is twofold.

In previous by-elections - many of which saw the Conservatives beginning in a far less auspicious position - MPs were instructed that they were expected to make a certain number of trips to the constituency to campaign. Yet the email message sent out by the Government Chief Whip to his colleagues yesterday made no such demands:

"Kashif Ali is the Conservative candidate in Oldham East and Saddleworth. Kashif, who was the candidate in May's General Election, has made this election a genuine three horse race. There are just 2400 votes in it. Now he needs your help. His team are already working hard across the area, knocking on doors and delivering leaflets.

"Andy Stephenson, MP for Pendle is the campaign manager and wants to encourage colleagues to support the campaign. Please contact Andy for further information or the two campaign support coordinators..."

Even more shocking to me is the fact that those who were on the pre-election Candidates List have not heard a peep from CCHQ about the by-election. Again, in similar previous contests, those on the list - and selected candidates for that matter - were effectively told that unless they made three trips to the seat to campaign, their commitment to the cause would be questioned and their chances of remaining on the list and/or finding a seat would be diminished.

The lack of communication with those on the Candidates List about the campaign for the January 13th by-election is even more astounding given that between now and the end of March CCHQ is assessing all those very people on the pre-election list who want to remain on it.

The first criterion by which those applicants are being assessed is "energy and commitment", so I would have thought that the powers-that-be would be using the by-election as a prime opportunity to judge that, gaining an army of campaign volunteers in the process.

I would have suggested that CCHQ has consciously not told the Candidates List about the contest as some kind of elaborate initiative test, but for the fact that in recent days I have spoken to several ex-candidates who have tried to offer their campaigning services and not yet been taken up on their offers.

Anyhow, in the absence of any communication from CCHQ, ConHome hereby fulfils its public service duty by announcing that should you want to do your bit for Kashif Ali, you should call Caroline Dickinson on 01274 363000 or email her.

The Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election looks set to will take place on January 13th

By Jonathan Isaby

11am update: The writ has formally been moved in the Commons by Lib Dem whip Alistair Carmichael so it is game on for January 13th.

---

At yesterday's PMQs, Labour MP Chris Ruane broadcast rumours that the Lib Dems intended moving the writ for the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election today.

This they are now definitely expected to do, which will mean a contest to elect a new MP for the seat taking place on Thursday January 13th.

By convention, the party which held the seat previously (in this case Labour) moves the writ, but senior government sources indicated yesterday that this is not a conventional by-election, since an election has not been declared void in this manner for 99 years.

Today's Independent suggests that the Lib Dems want the swift poll because "over 1,200 students studying at the Huddersfield University campus in Oldham will still be on holiday when by-election takes place".

It is certainly early in the year by historical standards.

By my reckoning it will be the first January by-election since 1986, when there were contests in 15 Northern Irish seats on the same day after the mass resignation of unionist MPs over the Anglo-Irish Agreement.

It will be the first January by-election in mainland Britain in since that in Hull North on January 27th 1966, which propelled Kevin MacNamara into the Commons.

And the last time a by-election was this early in the year was when the South Norfolk by-election of 1955 was also held on January 13th. The last recorded contest earlier than this in the year that I can find a reference to was the Skipton by-election of 1944, which took place on January 7th.

In the Commons yesterday Ruane talked about the writ being moved with "unseemly haste". Labour know more than a little about that: I will never forget Labour's offensive breach of convention in 2008 when they moved the writ for the Crewe and Nantwich by-election before Gwyneth Dunwoody's funeral had even taken place.

Meanwhile, David Cameron confirmed to me last night that he will personally be going to Oldham to campaign for Kashif Ali, the Conservative candidate.

Kashif Ali selected to fight Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election

By Jonathan Isaby

The Conservatives in Oldham East and Saddleworth have selected Kashif Ali to contest the by-election caused by the judicial ruling of the general election in the constituency to have been void.

Kashif is a local man born and bred, a barrister and former Deputy Chairman of the Manchester Conservative Federation. He also sits on the Board of a national charity providing housing and support services for adults with mental health problems and learning difficulties.

He fought the seat at the general election, when he increased the Conservative vote by 8.7% to put the party into a strong third place. The full result in May was:

Woolas (Lab) - 14,186 (31.9%; -10.7)
Watkins (LIb Dem) - 14,083 (31.6%; -0.5)
Ali (Con) - 11,773 (26.4%; +8.7)
Stott (BNP) - 2,546 (5.7%)
Bentley (UKIP) - 1,720 (3.9%; +1.8)
Nazir (Christian) - 212 (0.5%)

He said on his reselection:

“It is a great honour and extremely exciting to be the Conservative candidate for Oldham East and Saddleworth.  It’s an honour because I was born and brought up here, I live in the constituency and feel strongly about doing everything I can to help improve the area for local residents.

“For the last three years I have been fighting for local people.  I have been fighting to secure investment in local NHS services, to deliver a zero percent increase in Council tax, to deliver a cinema complex, to restore Oldham market to its former glory days, to bring common sense to the Council’s parking charges and enforcement regime, to cut Councillors allowances and to deal with anti-social behaviour which is so widespread in many communities.

“As we go into this by-election, being an Oldhamer born and bred, I promise if elected to be a committed, listening and accessible local MP who will make local economic regeneration and fighting crime his two top priorities.”

Elwyn Watkins will stand again for the Lib Dems, whilst Labour have selected Debbie Abrahams. BNP leader Nick Griffin has indicated that he will also be standing.

Regional list rankings announced for next year's Scottish Parliament elections

By Jonathan Isaby

The results have just been announced of the ballot for the regional list rankings of candidates for next year's  Scottish Parliament elections. They are as follows:

Central Scotland (2007: 1 regional MSP, 0 constituency MSPs)
1.  Margaret Mitchell MSP
2.  Robert Crozier
3.  Graham Simpson
4.  Bob Burgess
5.  Allan Finnie
6.  Mark Brown
7.  Jonathan Tidswell

Glasgow (2007: 1 regional MSP, 0 constituency MSPs)
1.  Malcolm MacAskill
2.  Ruth Davidson
3.  Martin McIntyre
4.  Iain Whyte
5.  Andrew Morrison
6.  David Meikle
7.  Richard Sullivan

Highlands & Islands (2007: 2 regional MSPs, 0 constituency MSPs)
1.  Jamie McGrigor MSP
2.  Mary Scanlon MSP
3.  Douglas Ross
4.  Edward Mountain
5.  Kerensa Carr

Lothians (2007: 1 regional MSP, 1 constituency MSP)
1. David McLetchie MSP
2. Gavin Brown MSP
3. Cameron Buchanan
4. Gordon Lindhurst
5. Iain McGill
6. Jamie Halcro Johnston
7. Scott Douglas
8. Christopher Donnelly
9. Andrew Hardie

Mid-Scotland & Fife (2007: 3 regional MSPs, 0 constituency MSPs)
1. Murdo Fraser MSP
2. Elizabeth Smith MSP
3. Miles Briggs
4. Belinda Don
5. Callum Campbell
6. Neil Benny
7. Ian McFarlane
8. Allan Smith
9. James Reekie

North East Scotland (2007: 2 regional MSPs, 0 constituency MSPs)
1.  Alex Johnstone MSP
2.  Nanette Milne MSP
3.  Jimmy Buchan
4.  Hughie Campbell Adamson
5.  Ross Thomson
6.  Stewart Whyte
7.  Geordie Burnett Stuart
8.  Sandy Wallace
9.  Colin Stewart
10. Brian Docherty

South of Scotland (2007: 1 regional MSP, 3 constituency MSPs)
1. Derek Brownlee MSP
2. John Scott MSP
3. Peter Duncan*
4. Gill Dykes
5. Grant Fergusson
6. Colin McGavigan

* John Lamont MSP was third on the list but has elected to stand solely in his existing constituency of Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire 

West of Scotland (2007: 2 regional MSPs, 0 constituency MSPs)
1. Annabel Goldie MSP
2. Jackson Carlaw MSP
3. Maurice Golden
4. Stephanie Fraser
5. Alistair Haw
6. Graham Smith
7. Mark Nolan
8. Alistair Campbell
9. Gordon McCaskill

Nick Webb selected to fight Newport East at next year's Welsh Assembly election

By Jonathan Isaby

Newport East Conservatives met on Tuesday night to select a candidate to fight the seat at next year's Welsh Assembly election.

They chose Nick Webb, a public affairs consultant and political analyst with a specialism in PR for planning and development matters.

The Conservatives start in third place, although at the 2007 election were less than 1,900 votes behind the incumbent Labour Assembly Member.

He said after his selection:

“I am honoured to have been selected by Newport East Conservatives, and look forward to fighting a positive campaign.  I want to start by following the lead of Chloe Smith, MP for Norwich North, who signed a Clean Campaign Pledge, when she first stood as a candidate in 2009.  I think it is vitally important that voters are engaged by an honest campaign, and not turned off by the less pleasant face of politics.”

“On polling day I don’t want people to simply vote Labour out. That won’t be enough to win this constituency. I want them to vote with confidence and optimism for the Conservatives. I want them to vote with hope for a better day.”

You can read his blog here.

Candidates denied possibility of appeal in their application to stay on approved list

Tim Montgomerie

CCHQ is currently reassessing candidates and whether they can stay on the approved list. As part of the process they are asked to sign the form above, agreeing to there being no Appeal.

This seems to be unfair and unnecessary. Many candidates have given many years to the party, working in by-elections, in their own seats, attending party launches, spending lots of money on party events. They are essential to the smooth working of the party.

The interview process that will now decide their future is described in the brief note reproduced below. Most of the competencies were formally established at the Parliamentary Assessment Board that every candidate has already had to pass. Interviewees who took part in the A-list interviewing process, in 2006, described very inconsistent styles of questioning. Without a lot more reassurance about the quality control of the two person interviewing process that each of today's candidates will face, a process of appeal would appear to be a respectful acknowledgement of what might have been years of voluntary service to the Conservative Party.