By Tim Montgomerie
On ToryDiary yesterday I noted five underlying reasons why I think Cameron has a good shot at re-election if the Coalition holds together.
One of the reasons for drawing up the list was my fear that the Coalition is about to begin a long period of extreme unpopularity as it begins its frontloaded cuts process. We need some reasons to believe that things will get better as we emerge from the valley of cuts in 2013/2014.
I acknowledged in the comments thread that a sixth reason could easily have been Cameron himself. He's turning out to be a natural Prime Minister. Years of office will hurt him but he is currently 20% more popular than the Coalition.
Philip Cowley of Nottingham University pointed me to a seventh reason for hope; the incumbency factor.
In an article for LabourUncut Professor Cowley noted how incumbent Labour MPs were significantly more likely to hold their seats:
- Of the nine top 100 Tory target seats at the last election they failed to take nine. Eight of these were held by an incumbent Labour MP.
- "Labour’s vote fell by an average of 7.4% points in its seats that were not defended by the incumbent MP, more than two points higher than the equivalent statistic in seats where the incumbent stood again (–5.2%)."
Most significantly, Cowley notes how Conservative MPs first elected in 2005 got the biggest bounce in 2010:
"The Conservative vote rose on average by 2.9% points in Conservative held seats that were not being defended by an incumbent, but 4.1% where the incumbent MP was still in place. And incumbent Conservative MPs who first won their seats in 2005 – and who thus had the opportunity to acquire a personal vote for the first time – saw their vote increase on average by 5.6%."
Given that 49% of Tory MPs are new, that's encouraging news - if they work as hard as the 2005 intake!
> Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley's British General Election of 2010 has been published by Palgrave.
