The Telegraph asks the question and highlights Ed Balls' victory - won by only 1,101 votes while UKIP polled 1,506.
"Jason" left a comment on ConHome listing some of the Tory near misses and the UKIP vote (on a spot check his figures look correct):
- Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901
- Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829
- Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
- Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
- Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267
- Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043
- Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408
- Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881
- Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506
- Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
- Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188
- Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200
- Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
- Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928
- St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757
- St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560
- Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428
- Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737
- Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
- Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711
- Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274
The trouble with these analyses is that they assume most of the UKIP vote would have gone to the Conservatives. I'm not so sure but it's worth re-reading a blogpost from Janet Daley in the light of these findings. Three weeks ago she wrote: "In the name of its own principles, UKIP should now feel morally obliged to withdraw its candidates from the general election – or at least from contesting any seat in which a Liberal Democrat might oust a Conservative. If it does not – and if it thus succeeds in depriving the Conservatives of a working majority and inflating the LibDem result by default - it will have been responsible for providing the most Europhile party in British politics with signficant power in a coalition government."
Tim Montgomerie
