ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Anne McIntosh secures comfortable victory over Liberal Democrats in Thirsk and Malton

Anne McIntosh won the Thirsk and Malton election yesterday - delayed from 7th May because of the death of a declared candidate. The numbers below are for yesterday with the 2005 results in brackets:

• Anne McIntosh (Conservative) 20,167 (25,702), 52.9% (51.9%)
• Howard Keal (Liberal Democrat) 8,886 (9,314) 23.3% (18.8%)
• Jonathan Roberts (Labour) 5,169 (11,585) 13.5% (23.4%)
• UKIP 2,502 (1,522) 6.6% (3.1%)

The Yorkshire Post had described the election - the first between the Coalition partners - as "an old-fashioned election scrap". They cite these remarks from the Lib Dem candidate:

"Another Lib Dem hand on the tiller in government can only strengthen our part in the coalition. Lib Dem policies are now at the heart of government – had we left them to their own devices they would have lurched to the Right, but we have dragged them into the centre ground."

Congratulations to Anne McIntosh.

Tim Montgomerie

Coalition plans for all postal primaries risk giving MORE power to party HQs

One of the most innovative reforms that Team Cameron introduced in opposition was all postal primaries. In these primaries ALL local voters were able to choose which person should become their Tory candidate.

They were only used in two seats - Totnes and Gosport - but they were judged a success. CCHQ believe that they meant candidates were endorsed by thousands of local people rather than a few hundred.

One of the reasons why they were only used twice was the expense. Both all postal ballots are thought to have cost approximately £40,000.

In yesterday's Coalition Agreement there is a commitment for the taxpayer to fund 200 all-postal primary ballots:

"We will fund 200 all-postal primaries over this Parliament, targeted at seats which have not changed hands for many years. These funds will be allocated to all political parties with seats in Parliament that they take up, in proportion to their share of the total vote in the last general election."

While I welcome the basic idea I have a few related concerns.

The idea won't be cheap from a Conservative Party that, when writing its own agenda, promised to cut the cost of politics. If primaries each cost about £40,000 the total bill for the taxpayer will be £8m.

Douglas Carswell MP has put forward an alternative idea. He has said that any group of local people* wanting to put up an alternative Tory candidate in a traditionally safe Tory seat (or a Labour candidate in a safe Labour seat etc) should be able to do so at the time of annual local elections.  In other words, when voters go to the polling booths on the first Thursday in May to choose their local councillors (or MSPs, AMs, MEPs etc) they might also be given a ballot paper that allows them to choose between the two, three or however many people wanting to be their Conservative, for example, candidate.

There are problems with this idea. Postal primaries under the Carswell scheme could only happen at election times and many constituencies don't vote every year. Constituencies may not be contiguous with local authority boundaries raising the prospect that part of a 'safe seat' might be voting and another part would not be voting.

Despite these problems the Carswell idea has one big advantage (as well as being cheaper). It puts the power to unseat MPs into the hands of local people rather than party HQs. Under the Coalition plan - if I understand it correctly - it will be the party high-ups that will decide which seats get the opportunity to have all postal primaries. Under the Carswell plan any group of local people can run an alternative primary candidate against  their local MP if they suspect he or she has passed their sell by date.

It may be that a combination of the two ideas is the best way forward.

Tim Montgomerie

* A certain threshold of voters would have to be reached to ensure there was a significant local demand for such a contest.

Farage, with moustache, claims UKIP stopped Tory majority

The former leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, gave his first interview since his dreadful plan crash.

Speaking to BBC1's Politics Show he said that Cameron would be Prime Minister of a majority Tory government if he had accepted UKIP's non-aggression pact:

"The other effect of course of UKIP in the campaign was I think there’s little doubt that because of UKIP, Cameron was unable to form a majority government and, and do I feel guilty about that?  No.  I mean don’t forget, last year I made Cameron an offer.  I said if you promise that an incoming Tory government will give the British people a free and fair referendum on their future relations with the EU, we will not contest the election against you.  If Cameron had taken up that offer, there wouldn’t be a coalition.  There would be a strong Tory government in place now."

On 8th May ConHome investigated UKIP's devastating effect in key marginals.

Tim Montgomerie

Lib Dems will press ahead with challenge to Anne McIntosh at the delayed election in Thirsk and Malton

The death of the UKIP candidate in Thirsk and Malton after close of nominations meant that the general election poll had to be postponed until May 27th.

Conservative Anne McIntosh (pictured) will defend a notional majority of a little over 14,000 in the newly drawn seat, but despite the new coalition arranegemnt at Westminster, it has been confirmed in the Yorkshire Post that the Liberal Democrats will be contesting the seat:

The Liberal Democrat candidate in the Thirsk and Malton by-election, which will be held in a fortnight, said today he is looking forward to a "full-on fight" against the Tories... Howard Keal confirmed the Lib Dems will continue to contest the North Yorkshire seat, which was the only constituency where there was no poll last week due to the death of the UKIP candidate during the campaign. Mr Keal said he is looking forward to his chance to "upset the apple cart".

Jonathan Isaby

49% of Conservative MPs are newly elected

While waiting - like all us - for news from the Liberal Democrats, Grant Shapps MP has been number crunching on the new Tory intake. Here are his conclusions:

• Fewer than one in five current Conservative MP’s were in Parliament during the last Conservative government under John Major. 
• 56 – or 18%  – Conservative MPs served in the Commons before 1997.
• 49% of Conservative MPs are newly elected.
• More than four-fifths (81.6%) of current Tory MPs were first elected in 1997 or later.
• 9 Conservative MPs (3%) were first elected in 1979 or earlier.
• Three MPs remain from pre-1974: Sir Peter Tapsell, Ken Clarke and Sir Alan Haslehurst.
• 54 Tory MPs remain from the 2005 intake; 22 from 2001 and 24 from the 1997-2001 Parliament.
• 18 MPs, first elected in the 1983-87 Parliament are on the Conservative benches.

Interesting stuff.

Jonathan Isaby has already listed the 36 A-listers who became MPs and also a full list of the parliamentary party.

Tim Montgomerie

38 of the original 100 A-Listers are now MPs

The Sunday Times today looks at the make-up of the new intake of Conservative MPs.

Among the statistics it offers is that 38 of the original 100 members of the infamous A-List were elected on Thursday.

For reference, they are:

• Louise Bagshawe (Corby)
• Harriett Baldwin (Worcestershire West)
• Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East)
• Gavin Barwell (Croydon Central)
• Nick Boles (Grantham and Stamford)
• Karen Bradley (Staffordshire Moorlands)
• Angie Bray (Ealing Central and Acton)
• Steve Brine (Winchester)
• Fiona Bruce (Congleton)
• Conor Burns (Bournemouth West)
• Damian Collins (Folkestone and Hythe)
• Caroline Dinenage (Gosport)
• Jane Ellison (Battersea)
• George Freeman (Norfolk Mid)
• Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park)
• Andrew Griffiths (Burton)
• Sam Gyimah (Surrey East)
• Rebecca Harris (Castle Point)
• Chris Heaton-Harris (Daventry)
• Margot James (Stourbridge)
• Pauline Latham (Derbyshire Mid)
• Andrea Leadsom (Northamptonshire South)
• Phillip Lee (Bracknell)
• Brandon Lewis (Great Yarmouth)
• Jack Lopresti (Filton and Bradley Stoke)
• Paul Maynard (Blackpool North and Cleveleys)
• Esther McVey (Wirral West)
• Mark Menzies (Fylde)
• Priti Patel (Witham)
• Mark Pawsey (Rugby)
• Andrew Percy (Brigg and Goole)
• Amber Rudd (Hasting and Rye)
• Laura Sandys (Thanet South)
• Anna Soubry (Broxtowe)
• Andrew Stephenson (Pendle)
• Mel Stride (Devon Central)
• Elizabeth Truss (Norfolk South West)
• Heather Wheeler (Derbyshire South)

Jonathan Isaby

John Glen celebrates victory in Salisbury by singing 300 year-old song about turnips!

I was delighted earlier to watch the new MP for Harlow Robert Halfon's gracious victory speech earlier, kindly sent to me by Graeme Archer.

The most unusual vioctory routine must be the one that awaits the candidate elected by the great people of Salisbury. Tradition dictates that the new MP sings a song about fighting turnip beetles, first sung 300 years ago. It was a tradition observed by the outgoing MP, Rob Key. The LibDem candidate said that he wouldn't sing it if elected. What a spoil sport! John Glen - elected on Thursday with a majority of 5,996 - did sing it.

There's more about the tradition and an audio of John's performance here.

Tim Montgomerie

Did UKIP cost the Tories a Commons majority?

The Telegraph asks the question and highlights Ed Balls' victory - won by only 1,101 votes while UKIP polled 1,506.

"Jason" left a comment on ConHome listing some of the Tory near misses and the UKIP vote (on a spot check his figures look correct):

• Bolton West: Labour 18,329; Conservative 18,235; UKIP 1,901
• Derby North: Labour 14,896; Conservative 14,283; UKIP 829
• Derbyshire NE: Labour 17,948: Conservative 15,503; UKIP 2,636
• Dorset mid & Poole: Labour 21,100; Conservative 20,831; UKIP 2,109
• Dudley North: Labour 14,923; Conservative 14,274; UKIP 3,267
• Great Grimsby: Labour 10,777: Conservative 10,063: UKIP 2,043
• Hampstead & Kilburn: Labour 17,332; Conservative 17,290; UKIP 408
• Middlesbrough South: Labour 18,138; Conservative 16,461; UKIP 1,881
• Morley (Ed Balls): Labour 18,365; Conservatives 17,264; UKIP 1,506
• Newcastle-Under-Lyme: Labour 16,393; Conservatives 14,841; UKIP 3,491
• Plymouth Moor View: Labour 15,433; Conservatives 13,845; UKIP 3,188
• Solihull: Liberal 23,635; Conservatives 23,460; UKIP 1,200
• Somerton & Frome: Liberal 28,793; Conservatives 26,976; UKIP 1,932
• Southampton Itchen: Labour 16,326; Conservatives 16,134; UKIP 1,928
• St Austell & Newquay: Liberal 20,189; Conservatives 18,877; UKIP 1,757
• St Ives: Liberal 19,619; Conservatives 17,900; UKIP 2,560
• Telford: Labour 15,977; Conservatives 14,996; UKIP 2,428
• Walsall North: Labour 13,385; Conservatives 12,395; UKIP 1,737
• Walsall South: Labour 16,211; Conservatives 14,456; UKIP 3,449
• Wells: Liberal 24,560; Conservatives 23,760; UKIP 1,711
• Wirral South: Labour 16,276; Conservatives 15,745; UKIP 1,274

The trouble with these analyses is that they assume most of the UKIP vote would have gone to the Conservatives. I'm not so sure but it's worth re-reading a blogpost from Janet Daley in the light of these findings. Three weeks ago she wrote: "In the name of its own principles, UKIP should now feel morally obliged to withdraw its candidates from the general election – or at least from contesting any seat in which a Liberal Democrat might oust a Conservative. If it does not – and if it thus succeeds in depriving the Conservatives of a working majority and inflating the LibDem result by default - it will have been responsible for providing the most Europhile party in British politics with signficant power in a coalition government."

Tim Montgomerie

Hits and misses on the Tory target list at the 2010 General Election

During the course of election night we will keep track of the progress of our candidates in target seats (based on the notional figures for the new boundaries  compiled by Profs Ralllings and Thrasher at the University of Plymouth which all the media will also be using).

Check back here regularly during the course of the night to see the hits and misses on the Tory targets.

The seats are divided into several categories:

1. Seats currently held by Labour
2. Seats currently held by the Lib Dems
3. Seats currently held by Others
4. Seats which are now notionally deemed to be held by Labour which need to be gained back by the existing Conservative MPs
5. Seats gained at by-elections which were won by Labour in 2005
6. Seats which are now notionally deemed to be Conservative but were held by Labour/Lib Dems on the old boundaries
7. Seats where a new candidate is standing in a notionally Conservative seat or where a sitting MP retired
8. Seats lost by the Conservatives

In each category the seats are listed in order of where they appear in the list of top 200 targets (any gains from outside that list will of course be added), along with the name of the Conservative candidate. Once the result is declared, the text will go blue if the Conservative is elected, red if Labour win the seat etc.

1. Seats currently held by Labour
1. Gillingham and Rainham - Rehman Chishti MP - Con gain
2. Crawley - Henry Smith MP - Con gain
5. Harlow - Robert Halfon MP - Con gain
7. Croydon Central - Gavin Barwell - Con gain
8. Portsmouth North - Penny Mordaunt MP - Con gain
9. Battersea - Jane Ellison MP - Con gain
10. Hove - Mike Weatherley MP - Con gain
15. Stroud - Neil Carmichael MP - Con gain
16. Dartford - Gareth Johnson MP - Con gain
17. Basildon South and Thurrock East - Stephen Metcalfe MP - Con gain
18. Ealing Central and Acton - Angie Bray MP - Con gain
19. City of Chester - Stephen Mosley MP - Con gain
21. Colne Valley - Jason McCartney MP - Con gain
22. Cardiff North - Jonathan Evans MP - Con gain
23. Hastings and Rye - Amber Rudd MP - Con gain
24. Calder Valley - Craig Whittaker MP - Con gain
25. Stourbridge - Margot James MP - Con gain
27. Milton Keynes South - Iain Stewart MP - Con gain
28. Corby - Louise Bagshawe MP - Con gain
31. Vale of Glamorgan - Alun Cairns MP - Con gain
32. Swindon South - Robert Buckland MP - Con gain
33. Dorset South - Richard Drax MP - Con gain
35. High Peak - Andrew Bingham MP - Con gain
36. Loughborough - Nicky Morgan MP - Con gain
37. Aberconwy - Guto Bebb MP - Con gain
38. Watford - Richard Harrington MP - Con gain
39. Birmingham Edgbaston - Deirdre Alden - Lab hold
40. Stafford - Jeremy Lefroy MP - Con gain
42. Broxtowe - Anna Soubry MP - Con gain
44. Burton - Andrew Griffiths MP - Con gain
45. Brighton Kemptown - Simon Kirby MP - Con gain
46. Bury North - David Nuttall MP - Con gain
47. Redditch - Karen Lumley MP- Con gain
48. Rugby - Mark Pawsey MP - Con gain
49. Pendle - Andrew Stephenson MP - Con gain
50. Wolverhampton South West - Paul Uppal MP - Con gain
51. Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South - Simon Hart MP - Con gain
52. South Ribble - Lorraine Fullbrook MP - Con gain
53. Derbyshire South - Heather Wheeler MP - Con gain
54. Bristol North West - Charlotte Leslie MP - Con gain
55. Dumfries and Galloway - Peter Duncan - Lab hold
56. Tamworth - Christopher Pincher MP - Con gain
58. Cleethorpes - Martin Vickers MP - Con gain
60. Swindon North - Justin Tomlinson MP - Con gain
61. Westminster North - Joanne Cash - Lab hold
62. Worcester - Robin Walker MP - Con gain
64. Harrow East - Bob Blackman MP - Con gain
66. Great Yarmouth - Brandon Lewis MP - Con gain
68. Eltham - David Gold - Lab hold
69. Brigg and Goole - Andrew Percy MP - Con gain
71. Bedford - Richard Fuller MP - Con gain
72. Stevenage - Stephen McPartland MP - Con gain
73. Hendon - Matthew Offord MP - Con gain
74. Chatham and Aylesford - Tracey Crouch MP - Con gain
75. Brentford and Isleworth - Mary Macleod MP - Con gain
76. Bradford West  - Zahid Iqbal - Lab hold
77. Rossendale and Darwen - Jake Berry MP - Con gain
78. Hammersmith - Shaun Bailey - Lab hold
79. Blackpool North and Cleveleys - Paul Maynard MP - Con gain
80. Halifax - Philip Allott - Lab hold
81. Lancaster and Fleetwood - Eric Ollerenshaw MP - Con gain
82. Dewsbury - Simon Reevell MP - Con gain
83. Dudley South - Chris Kelly MP - Con gain
84. Northampton North - Michael Ellis MP - Con gain
85. Warrington South - David Mowat MP - Con gain
87. Wirral South - Jeff Clarke - Lab hold
89. Lincoln - Karl McCartney MP - Con gain
90. Leicestershire North West - Andrew Bridgen MP - Con gain
92. Gedling - Bruce Laughton - Lab hold
93. Halesowen and Rowley Regis - James Morris MP - Con gain
94. Nuneaton - Marcus Jones MP - Con gain
98. Warwick and Leamington - Chris White MP - Con gain
99. Dover - Charlie Elphicke MP - Con gain
100. Keighley - Kris Hopkins - MP - Con gain
103. Poplar and Limehouse - Tim Archer - Lab hold
104. Stirling - Bob Dalrymple - Lab hold
105. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport - Oliver Colvile MP - Con gain
106. Dudley North - Graeme Brown - Lab hold
107. Elmet and Rothwell - Alec Shelbrooke MP - Con gain
108. Reading West - Alok Sharma MP - Con gain
109. Tynemouth - Wendy Morton - Lab hold
110. Morecambe and Lunesdale - David Morris MP - Con gain
111. Pudsey - Stuart Andrew MP - Con gain
113. Ipswich - Ben Gummer MP - Con gain
114. Bolton West - Susan Williams - Lab hold
115. Bolton North East - Deborah Dunleavy - Lab hold
116. Waveney - Peter Aldous MP - Con gain
117. Sefton Central - Debi Jones - Lab hold
118. Tooting - Mark Clarke - Lab hold
120. Amber Valley - Nigel Mills MP - Con gain
121. Barrow and Furness - John Gough - Lab hold
123. Gloucester - Richard Graham MP - Con gain
125. Thurrock - Jackie Doyle-Price MP - Con gain
127. Brighton Pavilion - Charlotte Vere - Green gain
129. Copeland - Chris Whiteside - Lab hold
131. Stockton South - James Wharton MP - Con gain
132. Carlisle - John Stevenson MP - Con gain
133. Batley and Spen - Janice Small - Lab hold
135. Kingswood - Chris Skidmore MP - Con gain
136. Hyndburn - Karen Buckley - Lab hold
137. Weaver Vale - Graham Evans MP - Con gain
138. Renfrewshire East - Richard Cook - Lab hold
139. Lancashire West - Adrian Owens - Lab hold
140. Vale of Clwyd - Matt Wright - Lab hold
142. Luton South - Nigel Huddleston - Lab hold
143. Telford - Tom Biggins - Lab hold
144. Coventry South - Kevin Foster - Lab hold
145. Warwickshire North - Dan Byles MP - Con gain
146. Newport West - Matthew Williams - Lab hold
148. Leeds North East - Matthew Lobley - Lab hold
150. Erewash - Jessica Lee MP - Con gain
151. Dagenham and Rainham - Simon Jones - Lab hold
152. Sherwood - Mark Spencer MP - Con gain
153. Ellesmere Port and Neston - Stuart Penketh - Lab hold
154. Derby North - Stephen Mold - Lab hold
157. Norwich South - Antony Little - Lib Dem gain
158. Edinburgh South - Neil Hudson - Lab hold
159. Luton North - Jeremy Brier - Lab hold
160. Chorley - Alan Cullens - Lab hold
161. Edinburgh South West - Jason Rust - Lab hold
163. Ochil and South Perthshire - Gerald Michaluk - Lab hold
165. Gower - Byron Davies - Lab hold
166. Birmingham Selly Oak - Nigel Dawkins - Lab hold
167. Exeter - Hannah Foster - Lab hold
170. Bristol East - Adeela Shafi - Lab hold
171. Wakefield - Alex Story - Lab hold
172. Blackpool South - Ron Bell - Lab hold
173. Bridgend - Helen Baker - Lab hold
174. Bassetlaw - Keith Girling - Lab hold
177. Harrow West - Rachel Joyce - Lab hold
178. Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East  - Paul Bristow - Lab hold
179. Ealing North - Ian Gibb - Lab hold
180. Southampton Test - Jeremy Moulton - Lab hold
181. Nottingham South - Rowena Holland - Lab hold
182. Feltham and Heston - Mark Bowen - Lab hold
184. Plymouth Moor View - Matthew Groves - Lab hold
185. Blackburn - Michael Law-Riding - Lab hold
186. Delyn - Antoinette Sandbach - Lab hold
187. Dulwich and West Norwood - Kemi Adegoke - Lab hold
188. Clwyd South - John Bell - Lab hold
189. Slough - Diana Coad - Lab hold
191. Birmingham Northfield - Keely Huxtable - Lab hold
192. Brent North - Harshadbhai Patel - Lab hold
193. Newcastle-under-Lyme - Robert Jenrick - Lab hold
194. Walsall South - Richard Hunt - Lab hold
195. Walsall North - Helyn Clack - Lab hold
196. Morley and Outwood - Antony Calvert - Lab hold
197. Edinburgh North and Leith - Iain McGill - Lab hold
198. Cannock Chase - Aidan Burley MP - Con gain
199. Southampton Itchen - Royston Smith - Lab hold
200. Stretford and Urmston - Alex Williams - Lab hold

2. Seats currently held by the Lib Dems
3. York Outer - Julian Sturdy MP - Con win
4. Romsey and Southampton North - Caroline Nokes MP - Con gain
6. Cheltenham - Mark Coote - Lib Dem hold
11. Somerton and Frome - Annunziata Rees-Mogg - Lib Dem hold
12. Eastleigh - Maria Hutchings - Lib Dem hold
13. Westmorland and Lonsdale - Gareth McKeever - Lib Dem hold
20. Hereford and South Herefordshire - Jesse Norman MP - Con gain
26. Carshalton and Wallington - Ken Andrew - Lib Dem hold
29. Taunton Deane - Mark Formosa - Lib Dem hold
43. Chippenham - Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones - Lib Dem win
57. Torbay - Marcus Wood  - Lib Dem hold
59. Sutton and Cheam - Philippa Stroud - Lib Dem hold
63. Cornwall North - Sian Flynn - Lib Dem hold
65. Richmond Park - Zac Goldsmith MP - Con gain
67. Cheadle - Ben Jeffreys - Lib Dem hold
70. Portsmouth South - Flick Drummond - Lib Dem hold
86. Truro and Falmouth - Sarah Newton MP - Con gain
88. Southport - Brenda Porter - Lib Dem hold
95. Leeds North West - Julia Mulligan - Lib Dem hold
96. Brecon and Radnorshire - Suzy Davies - LD hold
97. Camborne and Redruth - George Eustice MP - Con gain
101. Newton Abbot - Anne Marie Morris MP - Con gain
102. Devon North - Philip Milton - LD hold
112. Cornwall South East - Sheryll Murray MP  - Con gain
119. St Austell and Newquay - Caroline Righton - Lib Dem hold
122. Winchester - Steve Brine MP - Con gain
124. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - John Lamont - Lib Dem hold
126. Argyll and Bute - Gary Mulvaney - Lib Dem hold
128. Dorset Mid and Poole North - Nick King - Lib Dem hold
130. Oxford West and Abingdon - Nicola Blackwood MP - Con gain
134. Bath - Fabian Richter - LD hold
149. Colchester - Will Quince - Lib Dem hold
155. Sheffield Hallam - Nicola Bates - Lib Dem hold
156. Harrogate and Knaresborough - Andrew Jones MP - Con gain
164. Lewes - Jason Sugarman - Lib Dem hold
168. Norfolk North - Trevor Ivory - Lib Dem hold
169. Yeovil - Kevin Davis - Lib Dem hold
175. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine - Alex Johnstone - Lib Dem hold
176. Kingston and Surbiton - Helen Whately - Lib Dem hold
183. Twickenham - Deborah Thomas - Lib Dem hold
190. Hazel Grove - Annesley Abercorn - Lib Dem hold
210. Montgomeryshire - Glyn Davies MP - Con gain

3. Seats currently held by Others
30. Perth and North Perthshire (SNP) - Peter Lyburn - SNP hold
41. Angus (SNP) - Alberto Costa - SNP hold
91. Wyre Forest (Ind) - Mark Garnier MP - Con gain
141. Moray (SNP) - Douglas Ross - SNP hold

4. Seats which are now notionally deemed to be held by Labour which need to be gained back by the existing Conservative MPs
14. Milton Keynes North - Mark Lancaster MP- Con win
34. Northamptonshire South - Brian Binley MP - Con win

5. Seats gained at by-elections which were won by Labour in 2005
147. Crewe and Nantwich - Edward Timpson MP - Con hold
162. Norwich North - Chloe Smith MP - Con hold

6. Seats which are now notionally deemed to be Conservative but were held by Labour/Lib Dems on the old boundaries
Enfield North (Lab in 2005) - Nick de Bois MP - Con win
Finchley and Golders Green (Lab in 2005) - Mike Freer - Con win
Rochester and Strood (Medway was Lab in 2005) - Mark Reckless MP - Con win
Selby and Ainsty (Lab in 2005) - Nigel Adams MP - Con win
Sittingbourne and Sheppey (Lab in 2005) - Gordon Henderson MP - Con win
Solihull (Lib Dem in 2005) - Maggie Throup - Lib Dem win
Somerset North East (Wansdyke was Lab in 2005) - Jacob Rees-Mogg MP - Con win
Staffordshire Moorlands (Lab in 2005) - Karen Bradley MP - Con win
Thanet South (Lab in 2005) - Laura Sandys - Con win
Wirral West (Lab in 2005) - Esther McVey MP - Con win

7. Seats where a new candidate is standing in a notionally Conservative seat or where a sitting MP retired
Beckenham - Bob Stewart MP - Con hold
Bournemouth West - Conor Burns MP - Con hold
Bracknell - Phillip Lee MP - Con hold
Bromsgrove - Sajid Javid MP - Con gain
Cambridgeshire North East - Steve Barclay MP - Con gain
Castle Point - Rebecca Harris MP - Con hold
Congleton - Fiona Bruce MP - Con hold
Daventry - Chris Heaton-Harris MP - Con hold
Derbyshire Mid - Pauline Latham MP - Con win
Devizes - Claire Perry MP - Con hold
Devon Central - Mel Stride MP - Con win
Esher and Walton - Dominic Raab MP - Con hold
Filton and Bradley Stoke - Jack Lopresti MP - Con win
Folkestone and Hythe - Damian Collins MP - Con hold
Fylde - Mark Menzies MP - Con hold
Gosport - Caroline Dinenage MP - Con hold
Grantham and Stamford - Nick Boles MP - Con hold
Hampshire East - Damian Hinds MP - Con hold
Hexham - Guy Opperman MP - Con hold
Macclesfield - David Rutley MP - Con hold
Maidstone and The Weald - Helen Grant MP - Con hold
Meon Valley - George Hollingbery MP  - Con win
Norfolk Mid - George Freeman MP - Con hold
Norfolk South West - Elizabeth Truss MP - Con hold
Northamptonshire South - Andrea Leadsom MP - Con win
Orpington - Jo Johnson MP - Con hold
Penrith and The Border - Rory Stewart MP - Con hold
Salisbury - John Glen MP - Con hold
Skipton and Ripon - Julian Smith MP - Con hold
Sleaford and North Hykeham - Stephen Phillips MP - Con hold
Spelthorne - Kwasi Kwarteng MP - Con hold
Staffordshire South - Gavin Williamson MP - Con hold
Stratford-on-Avon - Nadhim Zahawi MP - Con hold
Suffolk Central and Ipswich North - Dan Poulter MP - Con hold
Suffolk Coastal - Therese Coffey MP -  Con hold
Suffolk West - Matthew Hancock MP - Con hold
Surrey East - Sam Gyimah MP - Con hold
Tiverton and Honiton - Neil Parish MP - Con hold
Totnes - Sarah Wollaston MP - Con hold
Witham - Priti Patel MP - Con win
Woking - Jonathan Lord MP - Con hold
Worcestershire West - Harriett Baldwin MP - Con hold
Wycombe - Steve Baker MP - Con hold

8. Seats lost by the Conservatives

Eastbourne - Nigel Waterson loses to Lib Dems
Wells - David Heathcoat-Amory loses to Lib Dems

Jonathan Isaby

A thank you to all who joined the voluntary party's marginals tour

Over the course of the last month, the voluntary party's tour of marginal seats has clocked up campaign visits to no fewer than 72 constituencies across England, from St Ives in the South West to Tynemouth in the North East.

Those who organised the tour, Emma Pidding and Simon Mort, have asked to convey the following message of thanks to all who have joined them on the campaign trail:

"We have undertaken a vast range of the usual campaigning tasks anything from sticking stamps on envelopes, manning street stalls, leaflet delivering, canvassing and this week we have been assisting in the GOTV strategy. Each day different people have joined us – we have welcomed Peers, past Convention Officers, MEPs, some Regional and Area Officers, Councillors, and Candidates (not selected) all supplementing the local teams.

"From our Tour it is clear that we have some truly exceptional PPCs working so very hard to ensure victory for the Conservatives tomorrow. We also have the amazing support of a huge number of volunteers across the country totally dedicated to seeing David Cameron in Number 10. The Tour team just wanted to say a big thank you to those fantastic people that have joined us, and also thank you so much to all the hundreds of activists that have been working flat out in their own localities. The work of the voluntary party in this election has been awesome. Thank you again."

Below are pictures of some of the team in Cheltenham with Mark Coote, in Dudley South with Chris Kelly, in Sutton and Cheam with Philippa Stroud and in Poplar and Limehouse with Tim Archer.

"Worcester Woman" defects to the Conservatives

In the heady days of New Labour, much was made of how so-called "Worcester Woman" backed Tony Blair.

But this campaign has seen the defection to the Conservatives of one particular Worcester woman, Pam Clayton - who served as a Labour councillor in the city between 2004 and 2008.

She has even signed the nomination papers of the Conservative candidate in the city, Robin Walker, with whom she is pictured.

As the Worcester News reports:

Mrs Clayton said: “I’m still interested in politics and what goes on in my beloved city and country. I have always had lots of friends in all parties and I looked around for what I thought was right for the city and the country now.”

Mrs Clayton, of Chase End Close, Battenhall, Worcester, said she became disillusioned with Labour and left the party before the recession. While she has not yet joined the Conservative party, she said she was “seriously considering it”.

She thought Mr Walker was a man who is prepared to listen and help people in Worcester. She said: “He is around and he is accessible and that’s what matters to me.”

Robin requires a swing of 3.4% to gain Worcester from the sitting Labour MP and overturn a 3,144 majority.

Jonathan Isaby

If you want a Tory government here are some seats that need your help in the next 36 hours

With some advice from campaigners on the ground we've drawn up a list of some seats that will determine whether Britain wakes up to a Conservative government on Friday morning.

We've listed a seat in all English regions so most readers will have at least one seat within travelling distance. I hope readers in Northern Ireland, Scotland or Wales will also get involved by contacting their local parties.

For each of the seats below we've provided a link to MyConservatives. This will allow you to telephone canvass these key seats if you cannot physically get to them.

Please do all you can.

Torbay

Romsey and Southampton North

Bristol North West

Hastings and Rye

Feltham and Heston

Harrow West - Contact the office on 020 8866 9807, which is at 10 Village Way, Pinner HA5 5AF (2 minutes walk from Rayners Lane Tube Station)

Eltham - Campaign HQ is at 74 Westmount Road, Eltham SE9 1JE (5 minutes from Eltham station) Telephone 020-8850-2880.

Waveney

Northampton North

Dudley North

North Warwickshire

Erewash

Lancaster and Fleetwood

Bolton North East (No MyConservatives option)

Wakefield

Tynemouth

Thank you.

Tim Montgomerie

Over £12,000 raised by ConHome readers to help oust Lib Dem MPs

Many thanks indeed to ConservativeHome readers for responding so generously to our Yellow to Blue campaign appeal.

Since the appeal started on April 5th, we sought to raise £1,000 to boost the campaigns of eleven candidates trying to gain seats from the Liberal Democrats.

Your response was fantastic, with ConHome readers collectively sending in excess of £12,000 to eleven constituencies as follows:

• Ken Andrew (Carshalton and Wallington) - £1,025
• Steve Brine (Winchester) - £1,125
• Mark Coote (Cheltenham) - £1,355
• Andrew Jones (Harrogate and Knaresborough) - £1,000
• John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) - £1,100
• Philip Milton (Devon North) - £1,000
• Sheryll Murray (Cornwall South East) - £1,000
• Caroline Nokes (Romsey and Southampton North) - £1,029
• Jesse Norman (Hereford and South Herefordshire) - £1,000
• Brenda Porter (Southport) - £1,000
• Philippa Stroud (Sutton and Cheam) - £1,510

Jonathan Isaby

Snapshots of the fourth week of the campaign from ConservativeHome's panel of candidates - Part two

Here are the latest despatches from the remaining three of our panel of candidates, giving their takes on how the fourth week of the campaign has gone. This morning we published the despatches from Hannah Foster, Stuart Andrew and Lee Martin.

John Lamont - Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
Despite the sore feet and lack of sleep, the campaign team are pushing ahead to election day - only four more days!

We've had another great week with the high point being a visit from Samantha Cameron on Tuesday to Bookdonors in Selkirk. Lots of press coverage and the team at Bookdonors seemed to be really pleased to meet her and discuss with her what they do. An extremely positive event.

Eric Pickles popped into Gala on Monday to say hello to the team and to support our street stall. The canvassing continues to go well. We can't keep up with the offers of help and the demand for posters now exceeds supply.

Now, we just need to get the vote out!

Philippa Stroud - Sutton and Cheam
I can’t believe that this will be my final weekly report of the General Election for ConservativeHome. This week just seems to have disappeared in a whirlwind of delivery, canvassing, street stalls, visits, hustings, debates and social action. The main focus has been to increase our pledge base and meet with as many voters as possible.

The highlight for me this was a visit by Michael Gove. I took him to a school that is losing 15 of its school places at the year two transition from infant to junior. We met with the parents who talked about how badly this had been handled. Watching Michael explain how he, as Secretary of State for Education, would address the situation was inspirational.

Wednesday morning was a welcome break from the campaign trail. I had the privilege of spending the morning at Family Focus – an early years family intervention programme supporting vulnerable young mums. Many of them told me how the project had literally saved their lives and enabled them to do what they most wanted to do – raise their own children.

So the focus now is on getting out the vote and the run up to polling day. Our last round of letters is going out as we speak, before the GOTV push on Wednesday and Thursday. We have people pouring in to help from Sutton and much further afield, all working with us to deliver the change this country so wants to see.

Louise Bagshawe - Corby
Over the last week I have continued with my own local campaign with pub meetings, coffee mornings, as well as meetings with Corby businessmen, the Chartered Management Institute and Corus - a major Corby employer, which has been a signatory to the anti-National Insurance rise letter.

From my own point of view, it was a week I'd rather have avoided. CCHQ asked for me to be profiled by Ann Treneman of the Times, which I was happy about, even though she's a sketch writer.  I knew I was going to be made fun of, but you need a thick skin in this business.

She came with me to an NFU meeting in Brigstock, and I hoped that she'd say how on top of issues such a bovine tuberculosis I was - but alas she made no mention of that in her piece...

Blackburn Tories withdraw George Galloway-style leaflet

Many Tory candidates complain about CCHQ control freakery when it comes to approving leaflets but we get occasional reminders as to why the control freakery exists.

The Guardian - via the brilliant Straight Choice website - highlights a leaflet produced by the Conservative team trying to elect Michael Law-Riding in Blackburn, currently the seat of Justice Secretary, Jack Straw. The decline in Labour's vote makes the seat a possible Tory gain.

The Tory leaflet's talk of atrocities in Afghanistan by British troops, Jack Straw's insults to the "sisters and mothers" of Islam and of Israel as an "inhuman" nation reads like the product of George Galloway, rather than the Conservative Party.

As well as being ugly in its choice of language it is not, of course, Tory policy to withdraw from Afghanistan. The leaflet - which did not go through the normal approval process - has been withdrawn.

Tim Montgomerie

Snapshots of the fourth week of the campaign from ConservativeHome's panel of candidates - Part one

Here are the latest despatches from the first three of our panel of candidates, giving their takes on how the fourth week of the campaign has gone. More to follow later in the day...

Hannah Foster - Exeter
Another good week in Exeter. Still no big move to the Lib Dems on the doorstep and generally more firming up of pledges.

On Wednesday evening we had the best canvass of the campaign. 25 people on the doorstep in three teams in three very different areas. We knocked on over 1,000 doors and spoke to around 600 people – and it felt good. We followed it we with a new Exeter tradition, campaign curry at the ironically named Red Rose!

Wednesday also saw Eric Pickles paying us a visit in the battlebus (well, battle-van to be precise). We got a spot in Bedford Square, right in the city centre. Lots of people wanting to talk to us – all good.

We spent yesterday with our last big canvass before rolling over for polling day and only got soaked once!   As we go into the final straight we are more optimistic than four weeks ago and ready for the finish line.

Stuart Andrew - Pudsey
We started off our week with a visit by London Mayor, Boris Johnson, in the centre of Leeds and he certainly drew in the crowds. So many people wanted a picture with him and the expressions of good wishes was most encouraging.

It is clear that as we get closer to the election, the many people who were undecided at the start of the campaign, have started to make up their minds. I am particularly struck by the amount of times I hear "it definitely won't be Labour". Let us hope that is true!

Despite this, the Labour Party continues to fight a very negative campaign based on frightening some of the most vulnerable people in our constituency into voting for them. They continue to say we will scrap the bus passes for pensioners, prevent cancer patients from seeing specialists within two weeks, tell young families we will scrap Sure Start centres and now the unions are telling PCSOs they are under thereat if we win. Desperate tactics by a desperate party.

We continue to fight a positive campiagn on the issues that matter and only yesterday I lost count of the number of lifelong Labour voters who went out of their way to tell me: "No more, we want change and you've got our vote". I am keeping everything crossed.

Lee Martin - Sunderland Central
In my campaign diary for last week I said that the scale of the postal vote – 40 per cent of Sunderland voters have postal votes – meant that Saturday 24th was effectively our election day. So you’d forgive my campaign team for thinking they’d be able to ease up a little. Not a bit of it. The postal votes might have arrived but there are thousands of people yet to make up their minds.

Here are the latest despatches from the first three of our panel of candidates, giving their takes on how the fourth week of the campaign has gone. More to follow later in the day...

Hannah Foster - Exeter
Another good week in Exeter. Still no big move to the Lib Dems on the doorstep and generally more firming up of pledges.

On Wednesday evening we had the best canvass of the campaign. 25 people on the doorstep in three teams in three very different areas. We knocked on over 1,000 doors and spoke to around 600 people – and it felt good. We followed it we with a new Exeter tradition, campaign curry at the ironically named Red Rose!

Wednesday also saw Eric Pickles paying us a visit in the battlebus (well, battle-van to be precise). We got a spot in Bedford Square, right in the city centre. Lots of people wanting to talk to us – all good.

We spent yesterday with our last big canvass before rolling over for polling day and only got soaked once!   As we go into the final straight we are more optimistic than four weeks ago and ready for the finish line.

Please give what you can to end the Liberal Democrat monopoly in Cornwall

We're nearing the end of our bank holiday fundraising drive. Thanks to all who have given. We've raised £1,000 for Caroline Nokes in Romsey and another £1,000 for Andrew Jones in Harrogate.

Our virtual fundraising bus has now arrived in the beautiful constituency of SE Cornwall - a few hours after David Cameron visited (photographs here). Cornwall is currently a LibDem stronghold but our candidate in this seat is aiming to change that. Read more about Sheryll Murray here.

All of the seats we've focused on over this bank holiday weekend are on a knife edge. Please give what you can. It might make the difference.

Tim Montgomerie

The Observer's attack on Philippa Stroud

Philippa Stroud, our candidate in Sutton and Cheam, has been under attack today following a front page Observer story, that I linked to from this morning's newslinks.

I know Philippa incredibly well. I recruited her to run the Centre for Social Justice. I regard her as one of my closest and dearest friends. She has dedicated her life to helping the homeless, people with drug addictions and other very vulnerable people. I didn't want to draw attention to the story but the coverage across the internet has made it hard to avoid.

She has issued this statement (my emphasis):

“I make no apology for being a committed Christian. However, it is categorically untrue that I believe homosexuality to be an illness and I am deeply offended that The Observer has suggested otherwise. I have spent 20 years working with disturbed people who society have turned their back on and are not often supported by state agencies; drug addicts, alcoholics, the mentally ill and the homeless that I and my charitable friends in the public sector have tried to help over the years. The idea that I am prejudiced against gay people is both false and insulting.”

Iain Dale has come to Philippa's defence here.

Newspapers like the Observer complain at the lack of quality MPs but are they really surprised when they engage in gutter journalism against candidates like Philippa?

Tim Montgomerie

As with all threads on Seats and candidates, comments will not appear until I have approved them. I will not publish comments that include new or recycled allegations.

Dan Hannan: Why I'm spending the last weekend of the election campaign in Northern Ireland

Daniel Hannan blogs every day at www.hannan.co.uk.

The happiest aspect of this election has gone largely unremarked: Northern Ireland is returning to full democracy.

Until now, the existence of a separate party system in the Province condemned it to exclusion. Its MPs couldn’t aspire to ministerial office, meaning that executive power was necessarily wielded by people from Great Britain.

This had several baleful consequences. For one thing, Ulster was largely run by quangos. Lacking proper democratic oversight, the executive agencies in Northern Ireland ballooned, and the proportion of state spending reached Soviet levels. The best and brightest graduates made the rational decision to seek public sector employment, sapping the enterprise of a people once famed throughout the world for their thrift.

At the same time, politics was widely seen as a dirty, dangerous and disagreeable business. With honourable exceptions, decent people shunned representative office. Ulster Protestants sent their children, in large numbers, to English and Scottish universities, and many remained in Great Britain. Those who returned shuddered at the thought of entering public life.

In consequence, politics became tribal and defensive– even within the largest parties. David Trimble was the first ever Ulster Unionist leader to have graduated from a university, and was regarded as too-clever-by-half by many of his colleagues when he tried to create a more imaginative and modern Unionism.

Worse, the communities turned in on themselves. In 1921, three Roman Catholics sat as Unionists in Irish constituencies. By the 1960s, politics had become so binary that the UUP was debating whether to allow Catholics as members.

Identity politics takes the competition out of the system. Look at any party in Europe that speaks exclusively for a linguistic or religious minority. With a chunk of voters who feel obliged to vote for “their” side, its leaders become complacent and often corrupt. Northern Ireland is no exception to the rule.

How much do you want to stop a LibLab pact?

We're one-third of the way to this weekend's target of raising £3,000 for Tory candidates fighting Liberal Democrat MPs. In the last 24 hours you generously gave £1,000 to help Caroline Nokes in the battle for Romsey and Southampton North.

Our virtual fundraising battlebus has now headed north and has arrived in the battleground seat of Harrogate and Knaresborough. Before you decide whether to give and, perhaps, how much to give, please close your eyes and imagine Nick Clegg and Gordon Brown signing a coalition deal in a week's time.

The only sure way of stopping a LibLab pact is to elect Conservative MPs. Like Romsey, the Harrogate seat is on a knife-edge. Every £ helps. Please give what you can and we can help stop electing Liberal Democrat MPs with their soft-on-crime, soft-in-Europe, soft-about-waste politics.

A video about Tory candidate for Harrogate, Andrew Jones:

Tim Montgomerie