A YouGov poll published in yesterday's Evening Standard looked at the likelihood of Conservative gains in London at the general election.
The poll, conducted across the capital during the last week or so of February (Anthony Wells has a note on the methodology), put the Conservatives on 39%, Labour on 35% and the Lib Dems on 17%.
This equates to a swing to the Conservatives from Labour of 5.5% since 2005 and if the seats fell in the order in which they appear on the target list (as compiled by Profs Rallings and Thrasher), those in bold on the lists below would be gained as of today.
However, given that I understand the poll to have been taken across the whole of London rather than just in the battleground seats, I suspect that - as is the case in national polls - the Conservatives are doing even better in the seats that count.
The Wandsworth factor and demographic change go in favour of making Tooting a Tory gain for Mark Clarke and the loss of Labour votes to the BNP looks like going to aid Simon Jones' campaign to oust Jon Cruddas in Dagenham and Rainham; "Mr Expenses", Alan Keen, is more vulnerable than the figures suggest in Feltham and Heston (the current projection shows his wife, Ann, being defeated in neighbouring Brentford and Isleworth); Tory candidate Ed Northover wrote only this week about his efforts to win Leyton and Wanstead from Labour, whilst ConservativeHome has previously noted the energetic campaign being waged by Chris Philp in the redrawn Hampstead and Kilburn seat where he is now in genuine contention.
The Labour seats on the Conservative target list in London (those in bold would be gained based on the results of yesterday's YouGov poll)
NB: Both Enfield North and Finchley & Golders Green are deemed to be notionally Conservative held seats already after boundary changes, which is why they were not included on the below list.
- Croydon Central*
- Battersea
- Ealing Central and Acton
- Westminster North
- Harrow East
- Eltham
- Hendon
- Brentford and Isleworth
- Hammersmith
- Poplar and Limehouse
- Tooting
- Dagenham and Rainham
- Harrow West
- Ealing North
- Feltham and Heston
- Dulwich and West Norwood
- Brent North
- Ilford South
- Leyton and Wanstead
- Lewisham East
- Holborn and St Pancras
- Hampstead and Kilburn
* Currently has a Tory MP, but boundary changes suggest to be notionally Labour-held)
The Lib Dem seats on the Conservative target list in London (those in bold would be gained based on the results of yesterday's YouGov poll)
- Carshalton and Wallington
- Sutton and Cheam
- Richmond Park
- Kingston and Surbiton
- Twickenham
