The seats which would change hands on Ladbrokes' current projection of a Tory majority of 33

Bookmaker Ladbrokes has now posted on its website the betting odds for every single constituency in Great Britain (there is nothing yet on the 18 seats in Northern Ireland).

I have just spent several hours going though the odds for each seat in order to establish what they currently expect to happen constituency by constituency - my premise being that the favourite, with the shortest odds, is the party they currently expect to win the seat.

After boundary changes, the Conservatives start the election notionally holding 209 seats. Ladbrokes' odds suggest that as of today they expect the Conservatives to gain 132 seats, giving the party 341 seats in the Commons, which equates to a majority of 33.

There obviousy does not tak account of any seats the Conservatives may win in Northern Ireland, and, as noted below, there are a few constituencies which are deemed to close to call and are therefore not included in the Tory tally at this stage. The bookmaker lists joint favourites for those seats.

The lists of seats changing hands use the base of the notional 2005 results compiled by Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, which raises several issues:

• Some gains are for seats that do not technically exist in the current House of Commons (eg York Outer)
• Several seats listed as gains are already represented by the party deemed to have gained it. This is either because boundary changes mean that the party has to win it back again after unfavourable boundary changes, or because the party only holds the seat through having gained it at a by-election.
• There are some seats which are already deemed to have been gained by the Conservatives as a result of boundary changes. They are: Enfield North; Finchley and Golders Green; Rochester and Strood (the redrawn Medway seat); Selby and Ainsty; Sittingbourne and Sheppey; Solihull; Somerset North East (the redrawn Wansdyke seat); Staffordshire Moorlands; Thanet South; and Wirral West. Then there are the newly created safe Conservative seats including Derbyshire Mid; Devon Central; Filton and Bradley Stoke; Meon Valley; Northamptonshire South; and Witham.

So, here are the seats which Ladbrokes are currently expecting to change hands - and in any cases where you are confident that the bookmaker has got it wrong, then perhaps it is worth putting your money where your mouth is...

Conservative gains from Labour - 118

• Aberconwy
• Amber Valley
• Barrow and Furness
• Basildon South and Thurrock East
• Batley and Spen
• Battersea
• Bedford
• Birmingham Edgbaston
• Blackpool North and Cleveleys
• Blackpool South
• Bolton North East
• Bolton West
• Bradford West
• Brentford and Isleworth
• Brigg and Goole
• Brighton Kemptown
• Bristol North West
• Broxtowe
• Burton
• Bury North
• Calder Valley
• Cardiff North
• Carlisle
• Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South
• Chatham and Aylesford
• City of Chester
• Chorley
• Cleethorpes
• Colne Valley
• Copeland
• Corby
• Crawley
• Crewe and Nantwich
• Croydon Central
• Dartford
• Derby North
• Derbyshire South
• Dewsbury
• Dorset South
• Dover
• Dudley North
• Dudley South
• Dumfries and Galloway
• Ealing Central and Acton
• Edinburgh South
• Ellesmere Port and Neston
• Elmet and Rothwell
• Eltham
• Erewash
• Gedling
• Gillingham and Rainham
• Gloucester
• Great Yarmouth
• Halesowen and Rowley Regis
• Halifax
• Hammersmith
• Harlow
• Harrow East
• Hastings and Rye
• Hendon
• High Peak
• Hove
• Hyndburn
• Ipswich
• Keighley
• Kingswood
• Lancashire West
• Lancaster and Fleetwood
• Leeds North East
• Leicestershire North West
• Lincoln
• Loughborough
• Luton North
• Luton South
• Milton Keynes North
• Milton Keynes South
• Morecambe and Lunesdale
• Northampton North
• Northampton South
• Norwich North
• Nuneaton
• Pendle
• Plymouth Sutton and Devenport
• Poplar and Limehouse
• Portsmouth North
• Pudsey
• Reading West
• Redditch
• Rossendale and Darwen
• Rugby
• Sefton Central
• Sherwood
• South Ribble
• Stafford
• Stevenage
• Stockton South
• Stourbridge
• Stroud
• Swindon North
• Swindon South
• Tamworth
• Telford
• Thurrock
• Tooting
• Tynemouth
• Vale of Clwyd
• Vale of Glamorgan
• Wakefield
• Warrington South
• Warwick and Leamington
• Warwickshire North
• Watford
• Waveney
• Weaver Vale
• Westminster North
• Wirral South
• Wolverhampton South West
• Worcester

Conservative gains from the Lib Dems - 13

• Carshalton and Wallington
• Cheltenham
• Chippenham
• Cornwall South East
• Hereford and Herefordshire South
• Romsey and Southampton North
• Somerton and Frome
• Southport
• St Austell and Newquay
• Sutton and Cheam
• Taunton Deane
• Torbay
• York Outer

Conservative gain from Independent - 1

• Wyre Forest

Too close to call between the Conservatives and Labour - 3

• Newport West
• Southampton Test
• Workington

Too close to call between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats - 3

• Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
• Cornwall North
• Richmond Park

Labour gain from Respect - 1

• Bethnal Green and Bow

Labour re-gain of by-election loss to the SNP - 1

• Glasgow East

Labour re-gain of by-election loss to the Liberal Democrats - 1

• Dunfermline and West Fife

Liberal Democrat gains from Labour - 5

• Burnley
• Hampstead and Kilburn
• Islington South and Finsbury
• Oxford East
• Rochdale

Too close to call between the Liberal Democrats and Labour - 4

• Birmingham Hall Green
• City of Durham
• Liverpool Wavertree
• Swansea West

SNP gains from Labour - 2

• Dundee West
• Ochil and South Perthshire

Plaid Cymru gains from Labour - 2

• Arfon
• Ynys Mon

Too close to call between Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats - 1

• Ceredigion

Green gain from Labour

• Brighton Pavilion

Jonathan Isaby