New research by ConservativeHome today shows the extent of the likely historic increase in female and Black and Minority Ethnic representation inside the Conservative parliamentary party after the general election.
In the House of Commons at present there are 18 female Conservative MPs out of 193 - equivalent to 9.3% - of whom 5 are retiring (Angela Browning, Julie Kirkbride, Jacqui Lait, Ann Widdecombe and Ann Winterton) and 13 are seeking re-election (Nadine Dorries, Cheryl Gillan, Justine Greening, Eleanor Laing, Anne McIntosh, Anne Main, Theresa May, Maria Miller, Anne Milton, Chloe Smith, Caroline Spelman, Theresa Villiers and Angela Watkinson).
There are just two Conservative MPs from a Black or Minority Ethnic (BME) background - equivalent to 1.0% - both of whom are seeking re-election (Adam Afriyie and Shailesh Vara).
It is now clearer than ever that those numbers will be blown out of the water at the general election and that David Cameron will have succeeded in presiding over the most radical overhaul of the gender and ethnic make-up of the Conservative parliamentary party.
NB The figures below assume that all sitting Conservative MPs are returned and that seats are gained by the Conservatives in the order in which they appear on the target list as compiled by Profs Rallings and Thrasher at the University of Plymouth
Selections in the safe seats
51 candidates have been selected for the seats where Conservative MPs are standing down, or where boundary changes have created new Conservative seats or converted existing ones into Conservative seats. Of those 51 candidates in the safe seats, 16 (31.4%) are women and 4 (7.8%) are from a BME background.
The women are (starting with the safest):
Helen Grant (Maidstone and the Weald)
- Claire Perry (Devizes)
- Andrea Leadsom (South Northamptonshire)
- Therese Coffey (Suffolk Coastal)
- Rebecca Harris (Castle Point)
- Fiona Bruce (Congleton)
- Priti Patel (Witham, right)
- Elizabeth Truss (Norfolk South West)
- Caroline Dinenage (Gosport)
- Pauline Latham (Mid Derbyshire)
- Harriett Baldwin (West Worcestershire)
- Sarah Wollaston (Totnes)
- Karen Bradley (Staffordshire Moorlands)
- Laura Sandys (South Thanet)
- Esther McVey (Wirral West)
- Maggie Throup (Solihull)
The BME candidates are (starting with the safest):
- Helen Grant (Maidstone and the Weald)
- Kwasi Kwarteng (Spelthorne)
- Sajid Javid (Bromsgrove)
- Priti Patel (Witham)
Retaining those seats alone would result in a total of 29 women Conservative MPs (13.9% of the total) and 6 BME Conservative MPs (2.9%).
If the Conservatives win an overall majority
The Conservatives need to gain 117 seats (additional to the 209 the party is deemed to hold already under the notional statistics) to gain the smallest of Commons majorities.
In these seats, 32 women and 6 BME candidates have been selected, which would result in totals of 61 women Conservative MPs (18.7%) and 12 BME Conservative MPs (3.7%) sitting on the green benches.
The additional women are (in order of how high their seats are on the target list):
Caroline Nokes (Romsey and Southampton North)
- Penny Mordaunt (Portsmouth North, right)
- Jane Ellison (Battersea)
- Annunziata Rees-Mogg (Somerton and Frome)
- Maria Hutchings (Eastleigh)
- Angie Bray (Ealing Central and Acton)
- Amber Rudd (Hastings and Rye)
- Margot James (Stourbridge)
- Louise Bagshawe (Corby)
- Nicky Morgan (Loughborough)
- Deirdre Alden (Birmingham Edgbaston)
- Anna Soubry (Broxtowe)
- Karen Lumley (Redditch)
- Lorraine Fullbrook (South Ribble)
- Heather Wheeler (South Derbyshire)
- Charlotte Leslie (Bristol North West)
- Philippa Stroud (Sutton and Cheam)
- Joanne Cash (Westminster North)
- Sian Flynn (Cornwall North)
Flick Drummond (Portsmouth South)
- Tracey Crouch (Chatham and Aylesford)
- Mary Macleod (Brentford and Isleworth, right)
- Sarah Newton (Truro and Falmouth)
- Brenda Porter (Southport)
- Julia Mulligan (Leeds North West)
- Suzy Davies (Brecon and Radnorshire)
- Anne-Marie Morris (Newton Abbot)
- Wendy Morton (Tynemouth)
- Sheryll Murray (Cornwall South East)
- Susan Williams (Bolton West)
- Deborah Dunleavy (Bolton North East)
- Debi Jones (Southport)
The additional BME candidates are (in order of how high their seats are on the target list):
Rehman Chishti (Gillingham and Rainham)
- Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones (Chippenham)
- Paul Uppal (Wolverhampton South West)
- Zahid Iqbal (Bradford West)
- Shaun Bailey (Hammersmith, right)
- Alok Sharma (Reading West)
In these circumstances, the total new intake of 166 Conservative MPs would include 48 women (28.9%) and 10 from a BME background (6%).
If the Conservatives win a majority of 50
Additional to the seats held above, this would require a further 24 seats to be gained, which would see 5 further Conservative women MPs elected along with one further Conservative MP from a BME background.
That would result in totals of 66 women Conservative MPs (18.9%) and 13 BME Conservative MPs (3.7%) sitting on the green benches.
The additional women are (in order of how high their seats are on the target list):
Caroline Righton (St Austell and Newquay, right)
- Jackie Doyle-Price (Thurrock)
- Charlotte Vere (Brighton Pavilion)
- Nicola Blackwood (Oxford West and Abingdon)
- Janice Small (Batley and Spen)
The additional BME candidate is:
- Mark Clarke (Tooting)
In these circumstances, the total new intake of 190 Conservative MPs would include 53 women (27.9%) and 11 from a BME background (5.8%)
If the Conservatives win a majority of 100Additional to the seats above, this would require a further 25 seats to be gained, which would see 3 further Conservative women MPs elected.
They are:
Jessica Lee (Erewash, right)
- Nicola Bates (Sheffield Hallam)
- Hannah Foster (Exeter)
That would result in a totals of 69 women Conservative MPs (18.4%) and 13 BME Conservative MPs (3.5%) sitting on the green benches.
In these circumstances, the total new intake of 215 Conservative MPs would include 56 women (26.0%) and 11 from a BME background (5.1%).
Jonathan Isaby
