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The Independent today declares that Ashcroft's war-chest targets marginals. Closer examination of the story reveals that the vast bulk of the money spent in target seats is actually raised locally:
"The Tories have spent £6m over two years in the parliamentary seats that hold the key to general election victory... A drive for votes masterminded, and largely funded, by the Conservative deputy chairman, Lord Ashcroft, has seen party headquarters pump more than £1.1m into the coffers of constituency parties in Britain's most marginal seats. Tory activists raised another £5m locally to build up huge cash reserves in seats they need to win with a small swing."
CCHQ has given target seats £1,145,484 over the two years while local associations have raised £4,983,460.
The Independent therefore reveals that local Associations are financing 81% of their campaigns. That's not the impression given by the newspaper. The Independent implies that the money from CCHQ all comes from Ashcroft but there's no evidence of that. I suspect it comes from a variety of donors.
The Independent set out to prove one thing and they've proven another. I suspect that not more than one quarter of the money from CCHQ (5% of our total campaign spend in marginal seats) is funded by Lord Ashcroft. 5% is a significant contribution but the party is not dependent on his generosity in the way that the media likes to suggest.
I wonder when The Independent will have a front page splash looking at Labour candidates' dependence on union money? I won't hold my breath.
Tim Montgomerie
> In the interests of full disclosure, Lord Ashcroft owns a majority stake in ConservativeHome.
Charlotte Vere was selected for the seat of Brighton Pavilion by Open Primary in November 2009. Previously she worked on Zac Goldsmith’s campaign in Richmond Park. Here she looks forward to welcoming many ConservativeHome readers to the city this weekend and asks for help in a very interesting campaign.
This weekend the Conservatives will descend on Brighton & Hove and as the host PPC it will give me very great pleasure to welcome them.
Spring Forum, the last major gathering before the General Election, will be held at the Hilton Metropole and I hope it will give us all a welcome boost before we all knuckle down for the final push to 6th May, or whenever the election might be.
It will be a very special occasion for Brighton & Hove and a very special occasion for me. I am a ‘new generation’ Conservative, on the list in July last year and selected in November. It will therefore give me great pleasure to walk on stage tomorrow morning to open proceedings and ask the assembled for their help.
My seat, Brighton Pavilion, is a hotly contested three way marginal which we must win if we are to have a good working majority after the election. The current Labour incumbent, David Lepper MP, is standing down at the next election. We have an enormous opportunity to regain the seat which was lost in 1997.
The latest edition of the New Statesman is a special issue, all dedicated to the Conservatives.
There are interviews with Boris Johnson and Iain Duncan Smith... a predictable article from Simon Heffer suggesting that Cameron possesses little by way of principle in his political wardrobe... a warning from David Maquand that the Left dismisses David Cameron at its peril... and a very funny suggestion that I'm one of the "10 people David Cameron should fear"...
There's also a survey of Tory candidates, undertaken by ComRes. I should warn readers that it's less authoritative than ConHome's own surveys! Our most recent survey reached 141 candidates in the 250 top Tory-held and target seats. ComRes reached a smaller number of candidates, a good number in less winnable seats. ComRes tell me that they questioned "101 Conservative PPCs [with] two-thirds of the sample replacing MPs standing down or in seats requiring a swing of less than 10%." I'm confident, however, based on our own questionnaires that the survey is close enough to the truth.
I reproduce the results below with the kind permission of the New Statesman.
Tim Montgomerie
Please click on the graphics to enlarge.
It was confirmed last night that Sylvia Hermon, Ulster Unionist MP for North Down, will not be seeking re-election under the joint Tory/UUP banner at the general election.
This does not come as a great surprise, since she has never been known to be a great supporter of the electoral alliance the two parties have forged and has been viewed at Westminster as largely sympathetic to New Labour. She may yet stand in North Down as an Independent.
The UUP has nominated candidates for the other 17 seats in Northern Ireland, as reproduced on the BBC website; now the Conservatives have to finalise their nominees for the province's 18 seats, before the candidate selection process is finalised when the Conservative and Ulster Unionist Joint Committee meets to settle which candidates will stand in which seats.
The process has taken longer than most of us would have wished, but giving the people of Northern Ireland the the opportunity to again vote for candidates who can aspire to serve in a UK government is a noble cause which will have been worth the hard work it has taken from all involved to pull off.
Jonathan Isaby
Here is the latest nomination in our series highlighting people David Cameron should consider appointing to the House of Lords, since any Conservative administration formed after the general election would be able to call upon the support of the lowest number of Conservative peers in history.
If you would like to nominate someone, please email Jonathan Isaby with your suggestion, including key arguments for the nomination as well as biographical information. The sources of nominations will be treated confidentially where requested.
No. 62: Jonathan Fisher QC
A reader from London writes:
"I would like to propose that Jonathan Fisher QC be nominated for a peerage.
"He is a highly regarded criminal lawyer, who has been chairman of research of the Society of Conservative Lawyers in recent years.
"Jonathan has published a number of important pamphlets on legal matters, not least his 2006 publication, A British Bill of Rights and Obligations. Highly critical of the European Convention on Human Rights, it was published by the Conservative Liberty Forum. He has also long been a vocal advocate of allowing intercept evidence to be admissible in criminal proceedings.
"A member of the Conservative Party’s Bill of Rights Commission, he has assisted senior members of the Shadow Front Bench team at the highest level and would be an invaluable addition to Parliament if granted a seat in the Upper House."
You can read more about Jonathan on his website.
> Previous nomination: Dr Tim EvansEach week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.
This week’s diary is written by Simon Reevell, who was selected in February 2009
for Dewsbury in West Yorkshire. He is a barrister who was
chairman of Beverley and Holderness Conservative Association prior to his selection. He is challenging Labour MP Shahid
Malik, who will defend a notional majority of 3,999, meaning that Simon needs a swing of
4.5% to win the seat, which last had a Tory MP between 1983 and 1987.
Monday 15th February
The week begins with the newspapers full of talk of an ‘early’ General Election by which they seem to mean March 25th. This seems to be on the back of opinion polls which may not have changed if you allow for their inbuilt margin of error and which certainly ignore the fact that Northern marginal seats are running ahead of the national figures. In Dewsbury we are ready for the election whenever it is called. In fact there is that feeling of having done the revision and just wanting the exam to begin. Spending this afternoon writing to thank people who have offered to display posters brings home the fact that whenever the election is it will be soon!
This evening was the Mirfield Branch’s regular meeting. The Chairman, Patricia, is an ex-Labour councillor who became disillusioned with Labour and joined us. Mirfield provides some really committed volunteers; in the last three weeks they have delivered nearly 8,000 pieces of campaign literature. We discuss the details of a linked General and local election campaign assuming 6th May.
Tuesday 16th February
I spent this afternoon dealing with some delay in compensation payments following a disruption in the gas supply, for up to a week in some cases, in part of the constituency over New Year. It is the usual tale of recorded messages and call centre staff who can only work to their script. Eventually I get to speak to someone who can make a decision and some progress was made.
This evening I attended a presentation by the Army at the Royal Armouries in Leeds. Defence and in particular the way the Armed forces have been treated since 1997 got me into politics (search my name and ‘Blaymire’ on a full web search and see if you still think Chilcot has unearthed anything new!!). The presentation was impressive and it whilst was good to hear re-assuring comments about kit, it is a disgrace that it has taken so long.
Tonight saw the final selection of the outstanding safe Conservative seats, in Stratford-on-Avon, where John Maples is standing down.
Nadhim Zahawi was selected from a field of six candidates after three ballots and inherits a notional Conservative majority of 10,928.
He is co-founder and CEO of YouGov and served as a Wandsworth councillor for twelve years between 1994 and 2006. I have also just discovered that, like me, he is an alumnus of King's College School, Wimbledon!
Read more about him on his website.
Nadhim is the seventh of the twenty top candidates profiled by Tim last September to win selections.
Jonathan Isaby
5pm Saturday: Nadhim Zahawi won on the third round of voting among the 220 attendees.
Devastating news from Cumbria today: the association office of Westmorland and Lonsdale Conservatives burnt down last night. The candidate for the seat, Gareth McKeever, tweeted the news earlier and sounds stoical in the circumstances.
I have not been able to speak to him to find out any more, but there is a report in the local paper here.
I imagine that any extra donations to association funds would be especially welcome right now in a seat where Gareth is seeking to oust a first-term Lib Dem MP who is defending a three-figure majority. You can donate via the PayPal link on Gareth's campaign website.
Jonathan Isaby
The Times is reporting that former Cabinet Minister James Purnell will quit his Stalybridge and Hyde seat at the general election.
He is the latest in a line of senior Blairites to leave the Commons and in fact I speculated here back in November that Purnell might join the queue of ex-cheerleaders for Tony Blair who would depart the Commons at the election. He only entered the Commons in 2001.
Other senior Blairites quitting include Geoff Hoon, Patricia Hewittt, Stephen Byers, Alan Milburn, John Reid and Ruth Kelly.
In December, Rob Adlard was selected to contest Stalybridge and Hyde for the Conservatives. He is chairman of the Longendale ward Conservatives in the constituency and would need a swing of 12% to overturn the notional Labour majority of 8,455.
Jonathan Isaby
News comes today that Bruce George, MP for Walsall South since 1974, will not seek re-election at the general election.
In a statement that hardly gives whoever is chosen as his successor as Labour candidate a boost, he tells his local paper that he wanted to "quit while I'm ahead".
The Conservative candidate for the seat, Richard Hunt (pictured), has been in place since August last year. He requires a swing of 10.4% to overturn the notional Labour majority of 7,910.
Jonathan Isaby
Businesswoman and mentor to aspiring entrepreneurs, Hamira Khan, has been chosen to fight Glasgow East for the Conservatives at the general election.
There is more information about Hamira on her personal website.
The constituency was the site of a by-election in 2008 where the SNP gained the seat from Labour; the Conservative candidate at the by-election, Davena Rankin, is now standing in Glasgow South.
There are also several other candidates who have been selected for seats in Glasgow who have not previously hit my radar:
Jonathan Isaby
Each week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.
This week’s diary is written by Victoria Ayling, who was selected in February 2009
for Great Grimsby, where she is mounting an energetic challenge against the veteran Labour MP, Austin Mitchell. A qualified barrister who has also worked in the sale and marketing of fish oils, she has served as a parish, district and county councillor and needs a swing of 11.6% to gain the seat. Read more about her and here campaign on her website or her blog.
Victoria writes: Since I got selected on Valentine's Day 2009, I have put my heart and soul into campaigning to win Great Grimsby. It has become a way of life and my whole family and many friends are giving me enthusiastic support. With a great campaign team and Campaign Manager it is looking very good for the General Election although every vote counts and we will not stop until the polling booths close!
Saturday I have a regular monthly stall in Freeman Street Market which means that I can listen to peoples’ concerns. Employment is the main issue in Grimsby followed by anti-social behaviour. These issues have come up time and time again at the 25 public meetings I have held around the constituency and are the main topics of discussion on my stall. Along with Phil Dumbrell, the ward Candidate, we attract a lot of interest, and our site adjacent to the serving hatch of the Pea Bung chippy is very popular - a bit too popular with me! I adore fish and chips and my visits to this wonderful serving hatch are a bit too frequent. Memo to self: next month only two visits allowed and only one portion of chips and cheese.
On my way home I asked the family what they wanted for supper... ah well, another visit to the chippy didn’t hurt anyone.
SundayAs a family we often leaflet together. Hunter, our youngest (8) who has Aspergers, fortunately loves letter boxes and enjoys pushing the leaflets through, while I hold the flap open. He loves to comment loudly sometimes, usually about nothing much, but at one house today he utters the immortal words: "man without hair in house mummy!" Pity my leaflet hit the floor at the same time...
We finished distributing my end of year leaflet. With my campaign team we have managed to blanket the whole constituency. These would have been out much sooner but for the snow which made the pavements treacherous. The last thing I want is any of my team or family injured whilst delivering for me!
Finishing the day I cooked a traditional roast meal then enjoyed the delights of the mountain of ironing.
Sam Gyimah has been adopted for Surrey East. He will inherit Peter Ainsworth's projected majority of 15,921.
Bullet points on Sam:
Many congratulations to a very impressive winner and commiserations to the unsuccessful candidates.
Tim Montgomerie
5.15pm: Iain Dale, who was an unsuccessful candidate in this selection, blogs: "Sam is a fantastic guy who will be a superb parliamentarian. I hope this puts to bed any remaining suspicion that local Conservative parties are racist. He won it on merit."
Given that he will have to defend his majority of less than 1,000 within the next few weeks, you might have thought that the Labour MP for Stroud since 1997, David Drew (pictured), would have been pounding the streets of his constituency last Friday night.
But no - I can reveal that he was at a fundraising dinner for a rival political party, and it would appear that he was there without the knowledge of his own local Labour Party.
I call his constituency office and ask the person answering the phone if she can confirm that Mr Drew was attending the fundraising dinner for the Gloucestershire branch of UKIP last week and was told:
"He wasn't; I am fairly sure he was at the Christian Socialist Movement conference."
On being told that I had it on good authority that he was at the UKIP dinner, his office said they would have to get back to me - and I am still waiting for a reply.
The guest of honour at the dinner was the ex-leader of UKIP, Nigel Farage, who has since confirmed to me that Drew not only attended the function, but also gave a spontaneous speech, which was afforded a standing ovation.
"We cheered him to the rafters... I think he's toughened up his position on the EU after the Lisbon Treaty went through without a referendum."
Rumours are now circulating that Drew is seeking an electoral pact which would see UKIP not standing a candidate in Stroud at the general election - a suggestion which Farage seems to imply is a possibility by the tone of his response:
"I'm not running the party any more, and in any case that's a matter for the local party to decide... but I think they're a sensible bunch."
It remains to be seen how dim a view the Labour Party machine takes of his public courting of UKIP, but Neil Carmichael, who will fight Stroud for the third successive election for the Conservatives, has a simple message for the local electorate:
"The only way to ensure Britain's interests are defended in Europe is to vote Conservative."
Jonathan Isaby
The Spectator's James Forsyth has written another account of the resignation and reinstatement of Joanne Cash as the Tory candidate for Westminster North.
Rightly or wrongly, Cash's constant name-dropping got under activists' skin: "There were grumblings that Ms Cash ‘was too busy walking Michael Gove’s dog to go leafleting’, others complained about how she talked about ‘Dave and Sam’. One might have thought that the Tory leadership — one that looks certain to deliver general election victory — would be popular with the constituency party, but the reverse is true. Here in central London, the conditions were brewing for a repeat of the ‘Turnip Taleban’ fiasco in Norfolk North. If the row about her selection went public, it would again fill the headlines with stories about Tory splits."
Over the last few days I've received at least a dozen calls/ emails from Westminster North activists. Joanne Cash's name-dropping has been the most mentioned criticism of her. 'She needs to spend more time on the doorstep and less time with the high ups,' was one typical comment.
Eric Pickles is being blamed by Team Cameron: "There is now considerable concern that there are other candidate disasters waiting to happen and that these could derail the opening weeks of the Tory election campaign. The failure of Pickles’s office to resolve this situation earlier and without fuss has left his future prospects looking bleak."
This strikes me as unfair, if true. The Chairman's office spent a great deal of time attempting to address this problem. The fact that he struggled to do so reflected the difficulty of the underlying situation. There are many situations in Associations we never hear about because they are defused quietly behind-the-scenes.
It's personal, not political: "Cash’s experience proves that the Tory wars are far from over. The internal battles and factional fighting may now be about personality not policy, but they are all the more vicious for it."
This argument builds on something James Forsyth wrote two weeks ago; Cameron needs to do more bridge-building.
Meanwhile Eric Pickles has written to all Associations telling them that any Association Chairman wanting to stand for a fourth year must get CCHQ's permission. The new rule was agreed at a recent meeting of the Party Board and is designed to ensure new blood at the top of Associations.
Tim Montgomerie
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