ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

"Tories aim resources at winning a workable majority in election"

Interesting report in The Times suggesting that CCHQ is adopting a cautious approach to its use of resources.

In a move that may be unconnected to the modest trimming of the Tory lead in national opinion polls the Conservative Party is "quietly withdrawing resources from some “landslide” seats to maximise David Cameron’s chances of winning a workable majority."

The Times also suggests that Liberal Democrat MPs may be harder to oust than CCHQ had hoped. It suggests that, for example, the party fears Cheadle may not turn blue:

"Cheadle, currently held by Liberal Democrats with a majority of just under 4,000, is among seats no longer regarded as likely to fall despite a well-funded, two-year campaign to woo key groups of voters. Party strategists privately admit that some incumbent MPs, particularly Lib Dems, are putting up fiercer-than-expected resistance."

I should imagine our energetic candidate in Cheadle, Ben Jeffreys, will be choking on his cornflakes as he reads that.

Some working class Labour voters are also reportedly returning to the red column as anger over the 10p tax band diminshes.

I have not yet been able to raise a contact at CCHQ to test their reaction to this piece.

Tim Montgomerie

> Last year I asked for your views on whether the Tories should direct more resources into 'landslide targets'.

Nicola Bates selected to take on Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam

After the short-lived candidacy of Daniel Gage, Nicola Bates has now been selected to contest Sheffield Hallam, the seat of Lib Dem leader, Nick Clegg.

Nicola is a 29-year old PR consultant, specialising in Government Relations, who was educated at the University of York. She has served as a Special Constable and just last month got engaged to Matthew, who is a Doctor of Politics at Sheffield University.

She said on her selection:

"I am delighted to have been selected as the candidate for Sheffield Hallam and now look forward to working as part of the Conservative team across Sheffield. One of the main issues at the General Election will be the economy. South Yorkshire’s economy still faces many problems and I am confident only the Conservatives have the policies to be able to get it back on track. I will now be going out across the constituency to let people know our plans and hear their thoughts on the challenges that lie ahead.”

Nick Clegg will defend a notional majority of 7,416 over the Conservatives, meaning that Nicola would require a swing of 8.1% to unseat him. Until the seat was seized by the Lib Dems in 1997, it had been held by the Conservatives for all but two years since 1885.

Jonathan Isaby

Jackie Doyle-Price's would-be Labour opponent joins her social action project in Thurrock

Each week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.

This week’s diary is written by Jackie Doyle-Price, who was selected in July 2007 for Thurrock in Essex. She requires a swing of 6.5% to overturn the notional Labour majority of 5,358 in a seat where the popular Labour incumbent, Andrew Mackinlay, is standing down. His successor as Labour candidate is yet to be selected. Jackie, originally from Sheffield, now lives in Purfleet and is a policy adviser at the Financial Services Consumer Panel where she works on behalf of consumers to get fairer treatment from financial institutions. Read more about her campaign on the website of Thurrock Conservatives.

Saturday 28th November
As usual Saturday is spent out knocking on doors.  Thurrock is classic swing territory and consequently we need to chase every vote if we are going to turn this seat blue at the forthcoming election. The Conservatives are currently in minority control of the council, thanks to the support of two independent councillors, So the political situation is neck and neck.

Despite Thurrock being seen, for Essex, as good Labour territory – it has after all only returned a Conservative MP for one Parliament in 1987-92 – it is noticeable that on the doorstep the Labour vote is in freefall. We have found some fantastic new candidates to fight our target seats which gives me considerable freedom to shore up the Conservative vote in our good areas.  Today I led a team in South Chafford.

Sunday 29th November
On Sunday I led a Social Action project with Charlie Key, our candidate in the Labour-held ward of Grays Riverside.  We set out to clean Grays Beach of rubbish and flotsam and jetsam washed up from the Thames.  We were supported by the charity Thames21 which works to clean up the Thames foreshore throughout London – obviously Grays is outside the London boundary, but I begged a favour.  Thames21 provided wellies and kit and we set to work.

We had a fantastic turnout including Council leader Garry Hague, and councillors Rob Gledhill, Ben Maney, Eddie Hardiman and Danny Nicklen.  Rob provided home-made soup which went down very well on a cold November day.  Our 20-strong team managed to shift many bags of rubbish, including gas pipes, tyres and the ubiquitous shopping trolley. The most interesting find was some empty shotgun cartridges, although Vic from Thames 21 had told us that in the past they had found a human skull so we came off quite lightly.

Charlie has well and truly rattled Labour’s cages with his campaign so no-one was surprised when we were joined by Labour councillor and their would-be parliamentary candidate, Carl Morris. Here he is trying to avoid being pictured with the ‘Win with Jackie’ team!

Candidates selected for the four remaining Manchester seats

We have already carried the news of the selection yesterday of Matthew Sephton in Salford and Eccles and James Edsberg in Blackley and Broughton.

There were also four further selections under the Manchester City Seats Initiative held yesterday, which were as follows:

• Manchester Central - Suhail Rahuja: The seat where Parliamentary Labour Party chairman Tony Lloyd will defend a notional majority of 11,636 over the Lib Dems. The Conservatives start in third place with 10.4%.
• Manchester Gorton - Caroline Healy: The seat where Gerald Kaufman will defend a notional majority of 6,355 over the Lib Dems. The Conservatives start in third place with 9.9%.
• Manchester Withington - Chris Green: A seat which was a remarkable Lib Dem gain for John Leech in 2005, where he will now defend a notional majority of 531 over Labour. The Conservatives start in third place on 10.4%.
• Wythenshawe and Sale East - Janet Clowes: An unchanged seat where Paul Goggins has a 10,827 majority for Labour over the second-placed Conservatives.

Jonathan Isaby

James Edsberg selected for Blackley and Broughton

More selection news from Greater Manchester this afternoon: James Edsberg has been selected to fight the redrawn Blackley and Broughton constituency.

The seat is predominantly created out of the existing Manchester Blackley constituency and takes in part of Hazel Blears' existing Salford seat.

The Labour notional majority of 13,060 over the Lib Dems will be defended by MP Graham Stringer. The Conservatives start in third place with 13% of the vote.

Jonathan Isaby

Matthew Sephton selected to take on Hazel Blears in Salford and Eccles

This afternoon, Conservatives in Salford and Eccles have selected Matthew Sephton to fight the constituency at the general election.

Matthew is chairman of LGBTory and a musician and qualified teacher. He occasionally blogs here.

Salford and Eccles is a completely redrawn seat, taking about 38,000 voters from Hazel Blears' existing Salford constituency and 35,000 voters from the existing Eccles constituency. Blears will defend a notional majority of 10,707 over the Lib Dems, with the Conservatives starting in third place with 16.9% of the vote.

Jonathan Isaby

Labour is reportedly aiming to stop Green voters from switching to the Conservatives

One of the many things David Cameron has done during his four years as Tory leader has been to make the party greener and make it more environmentally aware. It is probably best illustrated by the decision to stand for Parliament of former Ecologist editor Zac Goldsmith, who was co-chairman of the party's Quality of Life policy group (not all of whose recommendations were accepted as policy, of course).

And according to today's Independent on Sunday, it would seem that Labour are worried that the Conservatives are now well placed to win the votes of former Green Party backers.

The paper reports that Labour is intending to try and highlight divisions with Conservative Party over climate change in the top Tory target seats where the Green Party won more than 2% of the vote at the last election - in the hope of stopping Green supporters from switching to back the Conservatives and helping to deliver a Tory majority in the Commons.

Labour is apparently planning to use this tactic in the following list of constituencies, according to the Independent, which only covers the seats the Conservatives need to gain to win a majority of one (hence certain seats with a strong Green presence such as Brighton Pavilion and Norwich South are not included):

• Battersea (Lab)
• Birmingham Edgbaston (Lab)
• Bradford West (Lab)
• Brentford & Isleworth (Lab)
• Brighton Kemptown (Lab) 
• Calder Valley (Lab)
• Carshalton & Wallington (LD)
• Cheltenham (LD)
• Colne Valley (Lab)
• Croydon Central (Con held, but notionally Lab under new boundaries)
• Devon North (LD)
• Edinburgh South (Lab) 
• Finchley & Golders Green (Lab) 
• Hastings & Rye (Lab)
• Hereford & South Herefordshire (LD)
• Hove (Lab)
• Leeds North West (LD)
• Milton Keynes North (Con held, but notionally Lab under new boundaries)
• Milton Keynes South (Lab)
• Ochil & South Perthshire (Lab) 
• Oxford West & Abingdon (LD)
• Poplar & Limehouse (Lab)
• Reading West (Lab)
• Richmond Park (LD) 
• Stirling (Lab)
• Stroud (Lab)
• Swindon South (Lab)
• Tooting (Lab)
• Watford (Lab)
• Waveney (Lab)
• Worcester (Lab)

If Labour are seriously intending using their limited campaign budget to try and stop Green sympathisers from voting for Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park, they have rather more resources at their disposal than I imagined...

Jonathan Isaby 

Bob Stewart selected for Beckenham

I have just heard the news that Bob Stewart has been selected to replace Jacqui Lait as Conservative candidate for Beckenham. Sally Marks was eliminated on the first ballot and he won the requisite 50%+1 on the second ballot.

He described himself on the Beckenham website prior to the primary thus:

"Bob Stewart is a former British Army officer who saw extensive service in Northern Ireland and commanded the first British United Nations Bosnian deployment in 1992 – 93. He left the Army in 1995 being first a political consultant with Hill and Knowlton UK Ltd and then Managing Director of WorldSpace, a digital satellite company. Currently he is a freelance writer, analyst, and lecturer specialising in leadership and strategic issues."

Jonathan Isaby

---

This afternoon an open primary meeting is being held in Beckenham to select a successor to Jacqui Lait as Conservative candidate.

Significant boundary changes at the general election will make the seat far safer for the Conservatives than it is at present. In fact, the notional Conservative majority of 16,913 will make it - in percentage terms - the safest Tory seat in the country, according to the projection of Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth.

There are five names battling it out for the nomination (the sixth, Daniel Poulter, was selected in Suffolk Central and Ipswich North and it was apparently too late for Iain Dale to take his place):

• Tariq Ahmad
• Lynne Hack
• Sally Marks
• Jo-Anne Nadler
• Bob Stewart

I will let you know the result as soon as I have it - most likely between 5pm and 6pm.

Jonathan Isaby

Gagan Mohindra selected for North Tyneside

This afternoon, Gagan Mohindra was selected as Conservative candidate for North Tyneside.

He is a self-employed businessman who is a Parish Councillor in Chigwell, Essex, and a member of Epping Forest District Council.

I gather that in the final round of voting he fought off a very strong local candidate in Cllr Judith Wallace, Deputy Mayor of North Tyneside Council.

Commenting on his selection, Gagan said that he was looking forward to the enormous challenge ahead:

"Success with Linda Arkley at the Mayoral Elections in June demonstrated that the Conservatives can win in North Tyneside and I look forward to working with our councillors in Weetslade, Killingworth and Benton. Labour have take the North East and North Tyneside in particular for granted for too long."

North Tyneside is the seat being vacated by former Cabinet minister, Stephen Byers, who bequeaths a notional Labour majority of 14,929 over the Lib Dems. The Conservatives begin in third place on 18%.

Jonathan Isaby

Andrew Morgan selected for Carmarthen East and Dinfewr

Another recent Welsh selection which has only just hit my radar is that of Andrew Morgan for the Carmarthen East and Dinfewr constituency.

Andrew grew up and was educated in Llanelli, before going on to study History at Bristol as an undergraduate, and completeing a Masters in Modern History at UCL. He has since worked as a fund manager at an investment bank and contested Llanelli at the 2007 Welsh Assembly election. He is not to be confused with Andy Morgan, the PPC for Bolton South East.

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr is held for Plaid Cymru by Adam Price, who will defend a notional majority of 6,551 over Labour. The Conservatives begin in third place with 13.7% of the vote.

Jonathan Isaby

Nominations open in three more safe seats

The latest tranche of constituencies seeking a candidate was released yesterday and includes three safe seats where sitting MPs have announced their retirements in recent days.

The closing date for the following four seats is 14th December.

Salisbury - The seat being vacated by Robert Key. He bequeaths a notional majority of 8,860 over the Lib Dems.

Staffordshire South - The seat being vacated by Sir Patrick Cormack. He bequeaths a notional majority of 8,346 over Labour.

Suffolk West - The seat being vacated by Richard Spring. He bequeaths a majority of 8,735 over Labour.

Ynys Môn - Known as the Isle of Anglesey to its non-Welsh-speaking minority, where it would appear that the previously-selected Trefor Jones has stood down. The seat is a rarity in that it has been represented by MPs from all four main parties in Wales over the last 60 years. It was Tory-held between 1979 and 1987, but is now a Labour/Plaid marginal, with the Conservatives coming fourth with 11% of the vote in 2005 - although the third-placed Independent, Peter Rogers, had previously been a Conservative Assembly Member.

Jonathan Isaby

Caroline Dinenage selected for Gosport

1.30pm: Proportion of women selected to succeed wave of retiring Conservative MPs now up to 38.4%.

1.20pm Statement from Eric Pickles: "I am delighted to congratulate Caroline Dinenage on her selection. This is a fantastic result for the people of Gosport and the Conservative Party. The fact more than 12,000 people turned out to have their say is great news for local democracy. We are entering a brave new world in parliamentary selections, this is the second time we have run an all-postal primary which really does give power to the people. I would encourage our opponents to consider this radical change as a way to reinvigorate our political process. It is vital we make every effort to rebuild people’s trust in their politicians.”

12.45pm: Full results:

Bethell 2,965 (23.4%)
Dinenage 4,892 (38.6%)
Gyimah 2,867 (22.6%)
Manning 1,935 (15.3%)

Total 12659 valid

Turn out 17.8%

12.40pm: Caroline's campaign video (highlighting her lifelong support of Portsmouth):

12.26pm: Caroline Dinenage wins Gosport battle. Congratulations to her and commiserations to the three unsuccessful candidates. All of them would have been worthy winners.

12.04pm: 12,000 people took part in the ballot.

***

The four candidates are James Bethell, Caroline Dinenage, Sam Gyimah and Julia Manning.

Sam has tweeted that over 10,000 have voted in this all postal primary.

This is the second all postal primary. The first was in Totnes where Dr Sarah Wollaston was elected.

Robert Key MP to retire

Salisbury's Robert Key MP has announced his retirement for health reasons.  See letter below.

He leaves behind a projected Tory majority of 9,292 over the Liberal Democrats.  Another MP - like Sir Patrick Cormack - who has properly resigned before 1st January so that his local party members have a fuller say in the choice of his successor.

Robert is my own MP, here in Salisbury.  He has a terrific reputation as a very hard-working constituency MP.  He'll be a hard act to follow.  My life might get a bit busier now as candidates seek my advice on 'everything Salisbury'!

I have my own reason to be grateful for Rob's constituency work [he's known as Rob here]....

The image above is of my home in Salisbury when a car wedged itself in front of my door.  This is what I wrote at the time:

"My home in Salisbury is situated on the bend of a road and in the last year or so, three cars have come crashing towards my front door.   Robert Key has been brilliant at sorting the issue out.   The roadside kerb has now been raised after his intervention and I can now sit in my living room, watching Desperate Housewives et al, with less fear of a lorry coming through the window any moment.  Thanks Rob!"

Tim Montgomerie

Dawn Parry selected for Newport East

Last night Dawn Parry was selected to fight Newport East at the general election.

She won a four-cornered final (against three men) to win the nomination for the seat held at the last election for Labour by Jessica Morden with a majority of 6,838 over the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives (who were separated by less than 100 votes in second and third place).

Dawn is an entrepreneur, a District Councillor in North Somerset (where she defeated the local Lib Dem parliamentary candidate in 2007) and a campaigner against anti-social behaviour. She is a member of Women in Public Policy in Westminster as well as South Wales spokesman for Children in Need. She’s a keen rugby supporter, is a former Welsh swimming champion and is a published songwriter to boot! Her husband is Head of Maths in a secondary state school and they have two sons.

She said on her selection:

“It is an honour to have been selected to be the PPC for Newport East at the next General Election. I am very proud indeed to represent this constituency for the Conservatives. I grew up in South Wales and we have been so badly neglected here by Labour. The electorate are ready for change. I will work very hard to ensure they entrust me with their vote for that change so badly needed here.

“Wales makes up for only 4% of the UK’s population, yet 1 out of every 4 job losses comes from Wales: the neglect of this region by Labour is a disgrace. They have taken their voters for granted for too long.”

Jonathan Isaby

Sir Peter Tapsell re-adopted for Louth and Horncastle

I noted last month that the oldest and longest continuously-serving Conservative MP, Sir Peter Taspell, was about to face a re-adoption vote by the executive committee of the Louth and Horncastle Conservative Association.

The meeting took place last Friday at Louth Town Hall and when it came to the vote Sir Peter was "conclusively" re-adopted.

According to one source, it was "one of the best selection speeches we had ever heard" in which he talked about his constituency and parliamentary work and the current campaigns in which he he is involved - as well as in highlighting his abilities as an expert on economics and the Middle East. Adds my source: "On the issue that probably was on the mind of all present, his age, he reassured us that he was in good health and the "ism" that we are all familiar with - ageism - was discussed frankly by him".

Assuming he is re-elected at the general election, he is now in line to become the Father of the House, having sat in the Commons continuously since 1966.

Jonathan Isaby

Zac Goldsmith rebuts "misleading" stories about his tax status in message to Tory activists in Richmond Park

It was the weekend's edition of the Sunday Times which suggested that Zac Goldsmith, the Conservative candidate for Richmond Park, was non-domiciled for tax purposes. However, the man himself insists that the article was wrong in many of its assertions and yesterday sent the following message to local activists in the Richmond Park constituency in which he is standing, to explain that he has not in fact been a "non-dom" since April:

"The Sunday Times (29th November) ran a misleading article about my tax status which included outlandish remarks by the Liberal Democrat Lord Oakeshott. This gave rise to further Press coverage on the 30th November.

Although I have answered the questions put to me by the media, without hesitation, I wanted to write to you personally to explain the situation. Firstly, for Lord Oakeshott to suggest that I have dodged any tax and to claim that I owe millions to the British taxman is wrong and defamatory. Equally fallacious is his suggestion that I keep money offshore "free of income tax, inheritance tax and capital gains tax".

Sir Patrick Cormack to stand down at the general election

Sky News's Niall Paterson had the story first on his Twitter feed: the veteran Conservative MP Sir Patrick Cormack is to stand down as MP for South Staffordshire at the general election.

Sir Patrick, who turned 70 this year, has represented his patch of Staffordshire under one boundary or another since 1970. He had been re-adopted to fight the seat in September 2007 after a deslection saga which had lasted for much of that year, but has now opted not to contest the general election next year. He recently courted controversy by suggesting that MPs' pay should be doubled and their allowances abolished.

Sir Patrick has just released the following statement:

"I have informed the Leader of the Opposition, the Speaker, and the Chairman of South Staffordshire Conservative Association that, after a great deal of careful thought, and family discussions, I have most reluctantly decided not to offer myself for re-election at the next General Election.  I have been immensely proud to have been a Staffordshire Member in the world’s greatest Parliament for close on forty years, much more than half my life.  I regard membership of the House of Commons as the highest honour to which any British subject can aspire and I shall always be grateful to have had the opportunity, and the great privilege, of serving my country and my constituency at Westminster.

"I am most anxious to continue to work for some of the causes I have campaigned for over the years but I have recently had my third severe attack of bronchitis in two years and my doctor tells me I really ought to cut down on my normal ‘term time’ working week of 70 to 80 hours. The unhappy events of recent months in Parliament have made those hours much more of a burden than they used to be and it is also becoming increasingly clear that the new House of Commons will be very different from the old. Sadly, I have come to the conclusion that it is right that I should hand the torch to a younger man or woman, someone who will, as I have done, be able to offer many years of service to the people of South Staffordshire."

South Staffordshire is a safe Conservative seat, although the Rallings and Thrasher notional result of the 2005 general election (suggesting a Conservative majority of 8,346) is somewhat anomalous as it was based on a lower than usual turnout, albeit with a considerable drop in the Labour vote: during the 2005 campaign the death of the Lib Dem candidate meant that the poll had to be deferred until a separate day in June.

Sir Patrick's announcement at this juncture will ensure that his association will not have a shortlist of three imposed on them from CCHQ - as will be the case for any MP announcing they are stepping down after January 1st. I have previously stated my belief that MPs should make their intentions clear before Christmas and have a running list here of those MPs who have explicitly confirmed to us that they intend seeking re-election next year.

3.45pm update:

David Cameron has released the following statement:

"I am extremely grateful to Sir Patrick Cormack for his long-standing and committed service to his constituency and to our Parliament. As Chairman of the Northern Ireland Select Committee, as warden of St Margaret's, Westminster, and as a leading backbencher, Sir Patrick has been an outstanding servant of our Parliamentary democracy. At the next election, we will be losing a great friend to the Party and to our Parliament."

Jonathan Isaby

Selection timetable for West Suffolk

Following the announcement by Richard Spring that he will step down at the general election, West Suffolk Conservatives are about to go about choosing a new candidate to replace him.

I gather that the provisional timetable is as follows:

• December 4th - The vacancy will be advertised;
• December 14th - Applications will close;
• Early January - The sift committee will shortlist six candidates;
• January 16th - Executive Committee to interview candidates;
• January 30th - Final selection meeting.

Jonathan Isaby