A new poll from Angus Reid (a new pollster establishing in Britain and providing a regular voting intentions survey for PoliticalBetting.com) has found that 58% of Britons oppose All Women Shortlists and just 23% support them:
The poll also finds a small number of people who say they are more likely to vote for a female candidate than a male candidate:
Unlike PoliticalBetting's Mike Smithson I'm not sure that poll tells us very much at all. Two factors could easily overwhelm that narrow advantage for an Association picking a woman:
- The female candidate may not be a great campaigner and there is evidence that a lot of the women promoted by CCHQ in the early stages of the A-list are less effective campaigners. Most Conservative Associations have been more discerning than CCHQ and rather than rushing to hit an artificial 50/50 target have been choosing the best women candidates (30% of Associations are choosing women from a list that is made up of about 30% women). I'm very impressed with the calibre of the candidates unfairly called "Cameron's Cuties' and 'Dave's Dolls'!
- The fallout from imposing All Women Shortlists. The lesson from Labour is that AWS can divide local parties. The small advantage of a female candidate suggested by the Angus Reid polling could be overturned if local activists walk away or, worse, support an independent candidate.
For the record I believe Parliament will be richer with more women Tory MPs. I'd also like to see the parliamentary Conservative Party have more people from the voluntary sector and with backgrounds in maths and science. We need more more candidates rooted in the north and a few more with experience beyond the Westminster village. Forcing Associations to choose from AWS and pursuingnarrow and entirely-gender-based targets is a recipe for internal conflict and Cameron's change of tactics yesterday shows he has recognised that.
Tim Montgomerie
