Pictured are Eric Pickles with Jeremy MIddleton, Emma Pidding, Charles Barwell and other leading members of the voluntary party.
Yesterday we Twittered a request for predictions for the result of the Norwich North by-election. The mean average of Tweeted predictions and those left on Facebook was a 3,301 Conservative majority. Turnout will be low. Every canvasser has met a mixture of disinterest and some disgust from local people. One hustings had to be cancelled during the campaign after the number of candidates on the stage outnumbered the voters in the hall. We should get a declaration at lunchtime today.
Any victory will bring a smile to the face of Stephen Gilbert, head of field campaigning at CCHQ and who has been more-or-less living in Norfolk since Ian Gibson MP announced he was standing down. It is Stephen's birthday today and a win will be a perfect reward for his efforts and those of his team.
Labour, after being inactive during the campaign, poured activists into the seat yesterday. They swamped the core Labour wards of the constituency in a last ditch effort to turn out a respectable vote. There is surprise within the Tory campaign that Labour spin doctors didn't wait until yesterday to lower expectations but were rubbishing their prospects as early as Wednesday morning.
The Liberal Democrats are still hoping for a second placed finish and, under the direction of local Liberal Democrat MP, Norman Lamb, have fought a very negative campaign - first against the Greens and then against Chloe Smith personally. CCHQ is convinced that, post expenses-gate, negative campaigning is no longer so effective and voters want more practical reassurance about your own candidates' credentials. Tories believe that the direct mailed letter from David Cameron to every voter and the list of 'ethics pledges' from Chloe Smith were important positive elements of the Tory campaign.
The Tory campaign cannot be faulted for effort. It has been massive, culminating in yesterday's delivery of customised pledge letters to every Tory pledge by 6am. A number of CCHQ staffers have been permanently based in Norwich and David Cameron has visited five times since the date of polling day was was announced and once before. MPs have also played a massive role. Theresa May MP has been Chloe Smith's chief adviser and campaign spokesman. Running operations in different parts of the constituency were local MPs Henry Bellingham, Richard Bacon, Keith Simpson and Christopher Fraser. Also very dedicated have been Brooks Newmark, Michael Fabricant from the whips' office and local hero Baroness Shephard.
Scores of other MPs have been making regular campaign trips to the seat, rolling up their sleeves and getting down to work. Whilst it is potentially invidious to single anyone out, it was especially impressive to see former leader Michael Howard in Norwich on Wednesday: he made the four-hour round trip to Norwich from London to do a two-hour stint of eve-of-poll delivery and door-knocking without any fanfare, but just turning up at the campaign office, taking a bundle of leaflets and getting on with the job.
If, as is hoped, the Conservatives win today there will not be the raw excitement of Crewe and Nantwich but there will be much comfort at CCHQ that their campaigning methods and literature have been proved to be effective again and also at the unity of the campaigning efforts of the professional staff, volunteer activists and particularly MPs.
Jonathan Isaby and Tim Montgomerie
