I will be making a presentation at the ConservativeHome Inside Cameron's Conservatives conference this afternoon about the likely new intake of Tory MPs at the next election.
If David Cameron is to attain a working majority in the Commons, there will need to be 326 or more Conservative MPs sitting on the green benches; so given that there are presently only 170 (and falling) sitting Tory MPs seeking re-election, in excess of 155 new faces will need to be elected just to ensure the smallest of parliamentary majorities.
So in all likelihood, more then half of the Conservative MPs sent to Westminster at the next election will be new MPs, making it the most extensive influx of new blood onto the Tory benches in history. And since the party starts from such a low ebb, once those MPs have gained seats from other parties, many can expect to remain there for a generation or more.
And one of the most striking features about the new intake is the number of women who are poised to be among its number. My research - highlighted in this morning's Daily Telegraph - shows:
- 13 of the 17 sitting female Tory MPs are seeking re-election;
- 10 women are standing in notionally Conservative-held seats;
- 31 are contesting seats which are, on paper, in the top 116 targets the party needs to win in order to get that Commons majority; and
- 18 further women are standing in seats further down the list of the top 200 targets.
So at this stage, it would seem that in excess of 50 women can be expected to be sitting as Conservative MPs if David Cameron is to form a government - and that figure could rise to nearer 60 or even more, the bigger the swing the party manages across the country. And it should also be borne in mind that is before the next round of selections in the now 13 seats where a sitting MP has announced their retirement in recent weeks.
I have calculated that since women were first entitled to stand for Parliament nearly 100 years ago, only 65 have sat as Conservative MPs; so it is certainly noteworthy that approaching the same number will be elected to sit on the Tory benches in one go at the next election.
And that will have been achieved, of course, without having resorted to discriminatory all-women shortlists.
Watch this space for further conclusions from my research about the next generation of Conservative MPs.
Jonathan Isaby
