The BBC reports that Eric Martlew, Labour MP for Carlisle since 1987, has announced today that he will retire at the next general election.
Exchanging an opponent with what would have been 23 years' service for a new candidate will surely only go to boost the prospects of Tory challenger, John Stevenson (pictured), who has been in place since December 2006. He told ConservativeHome:
"This came as a genuine surprise and will be a big boost to the local party. Earlier in the week the Lib Dem candidate withdrew as well! A case like this goes to show that picking Conservative candidates early was a good thing, since I will be the longest-serving candidate in place come the election and that puts me in a far stronger position."
Carlisle has not returned a Conservative MP since the 1959 general election, but the redrawn boundaries mean that John requires a swing of 6.7% to overturn a notional Labour majority of 5,085 (based on the Rallings and Thrasher figures) - making it the seat that would deliver a Tory majority of 32 if it and the 131 seats above it on the Tory target list all fell to the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, I am alerted to news that several weeks ago Labour minister, Bridget Prentice, also announced her intention to quit as an MP at the next election. The Tory beneficiary there is Jonathan Clamp (right), who was selected in November last year and also had his Lib Dem opponent step down around the same time as Mrs Prentice's announcement.
Jonathan has to overturn a projected Labour majority of 8,758 (requiring a swing of 11.7%) in a seat which was last won for the Conservatives in 1987 by Colin (now Lord) Moynihan.
Are there other Labour MPs leaving the sinking ship that we haven't yet noted?
5pm Update:
Thanks to those who have notified us that Colin Burgon, the Labour MP for Elmet in West Yorkshire, announced he was quitting in the last week. The redrawn Elmet and Rothwell constituency will be fought for the Conservatives by Alec Shelbrooke, who was selected over two years ago. He has to overturn a notional Labour majority of 6,078 and needs a swing of 5.7% to take the seat, which is 107th on the party's target list.
Jonathan Isaby
