ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

News of the World "misrepresented" incomplete Ipsos MORI research

Yesterday I noted a News of the World story that purported to suggest women weren't being adopted as Tory candidates because female Conservative members feared they might run away with their husbands and so on.  I wrote that I was "suspicious of the findings" and contacted Ipsos MORI for clarification.

I've now heard back from MORI and I'm told that...

• "The information published in the NOTW article is not contained in any Ipsos MORI publication"...
• "The project we are doing is incomplete and still underway"...
• "The NOTW has misrepresented even the early findings"...
• "Incomplete research findings can be misleading and damaging"...

Other than that the NOTW story was very accurate :-)

Tim Montgomerie

'Female Tory members fear women candidates will steal their husbands'

That's the verdict of research carried out by Ipsos-MORI and reported in the News of the World by Jamie Lyons:

"Tory women officials reject pretty female applicants who ask to become MPs — in case they steal their husbands. And male chiefs block them because they fear they will use party funds to buy designer dresses. Tories confessed when quizzed by pollsters Ipsos-MORI. Their report said: “Female party officials don’t particularly want women, especially if they’re attractive. They don’t want their husband spending large amounts of time with them.”

I'll contact Ipsos-MORI today and report back with more as soon as I can find anything.

I'm certainly suspicious of the findings.  Fifty to sixty Conservative MPs will be women if we achieve a majority at the next election.  That's real progress on the last election.  Although CCHQ's ambitions for women candidates have not been completely fulfilled and although prejudice may sometimes be real I doubt it's the principal factor.  There is still an underlying problem of women coming forward to be Tory candidates.  They are being selected in greater numbers than their representation on the overall candidates' list (not the A-list) would numerically suggest.

Tim Montgomerie

119 of 120 Tory candidates in marginal seats support repeal of hunting ban

Both ConservativeHome and The Guardian have undertaken surveys of the 'next generation of Conservative MPs'.  One more fact about that generation emerged in the Boxing Day edition of The Times:

"A recent survey by the Countryside Alliance, a pressure group, found that of 120 Tory candidates in marginal seats only one was against repealing the ban and he said that he would abstain on any vote."

Sorry we missed that Countryside Alliance survey at the time.

A search for one hundred peers

Starting on 1st January ConservativeHome will be looking to nominate one hundred people who David Cameron should consider putting in the House of Lords should he become Britain's next Prime Minister.

Tony Blair created 111 new Labour peers in his first four years in Downing Street and our guess is that Mr Cameron may preside over a not dissimilar increase in the number of Conservative members of the Lords.  The numbers below (click to enlarge) provide some context...

We already have sought some nominations but now want to do this systematically.  If you have nominations please email them to Jonathan.  The sources of all nominations will be treated confidentially where requested.  Your email should ideally include key arguments for nomination as well as biographical information.

Thank you!

Tim Montgomerie

Richard Harrington selected for Watford

Following the resignation of the previous Conservative candidate, Ian Oakley, Watford Conservatives have this afternoon selected a new candidate, Richard Harrington (pictured). 78 people applied for the nomination and the unsuccessful contenders in the final were Mimi Harker, Dominic Johnson and Janice Small.

Richard is hitting the ground running with a campaign website already online. Educated at Leeds Grammar School and Keble College, Oxford, he is a long-standing party activist who sat on the Executive Board of the Federation of Conservative Students and was a member of the National Union Executive of the Party. He is currently chairman of the Executive Board of the Conservative Friends of Israel and a party treasurer, in which guise he set up the Number 10 Club. In business, he founded a property development company of which he remains a non-executive Director, and is also a non-executive director of a wealth management business in the City.

Richard is also a former Fundraising Chairman of the Variety Club Children’s Society.

Watford has been held for Labour by Claire Ward since 1997, yet today is one of the closest three-way marginals in the country. Ms Ward has a 1,151 majority over the Liberal Democrats (who run the council with an elected mayor), but the Conservatives are in a very strong third place - less than 1,000 votes behind the Lib Dems with 29.6% of the vote. On paper it is 38th on the national Conservative target list, based on the calculations of Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, meaning that it would be gained on a swing of less than 2% from Labour to the Conservatives.

On winning the selection, Richard said:

“Watford has always been an important part of my life. I believe, with hard work and determination, we can show people that it is the Conservative Party that has the best answers to their problems. I believe I am a caring and compassionate person - that is why I am in Politics, it’s not for money, and it’s not for power. It is to try and help make all of our lives better. In the months ahead I will try my best to show people that these are not just words, they are central to my creed in life. Watford people are like everyone else. They are tired of being controlled, with rules and regulations, with bureaucratic interference by government, locally and nationally, who always think they know better. I will strive, with everyone who wants to help, to bring about change, for the better, for all of us.”

Alberto Costa highlights his opponent's use of public funds to send out political propaganda

Alberto Costa, the Conservative candidate for Angus, has highlighted his concerns about how the Scottish Nationalist MP he is seeking to unseat sent out party political propaganda using taxpayers' money.

A complaint was made to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards by a constituent of Mike Weir, SNP MP for Angus, after he noticed that his nephew's 18th birthday card from the MP, promoting the SNP, had been sent in a first-class House of Commons pre-paid envelope.

The complaint was upheld by the Commissioner, who has written back to the complainant explaining that Mr Weir had "unreservedly apologised", stating that the card - and two others - had erroneously been sent in Commons envelopes by a volunteer in his office.

Alberto Costa said:

"Mr Weir must ensure that no future abuse of taxpayers' money occurs again. He cannot hide behind a volunteer. He is the MP and entirely responsible for how our money is spent for his communications allowance benefit. I have urged Angus residents, through the local press, to contact me if they or a family member have received an SNP Birthday Card to check whether Mr Weir is using taxpayers' money to send these cards. Mr Weir is quick to attack the Conservatives when he considers alleged wrongdoing on their part and has pathetically criticised me for revealing his breach to the public. It is my duty as the Conservative candidate for Angus to ensure that Mr Weir does not misuse taxpayers money again".

Andy Stranack adopted to take on Harriet Harman

Andy Stranack was selected yesterday evening for Camberwell and Peckham.  Labour's Deputy Leader Harriet Harman holds the seat with a projected majority of 16,191 over the second-placed Liberal Democrats.

Andy is a Community Development Worker mentoring young people on a housing estate in South London. He has facilitated the establishment of a number of community services including youth clubs, parenting and relationship courses. Andy has worked part time at the Centre for Social Justice since 2006, as member of the Social Justice Policy Group Secretariat and has served on both the Economic Dependency and Worklessness and the Asylum Working Groups.

***
Camberwell and Peckham completes the eleven selections for the South London tranche. CCHQ are reportedly delighted that four women and two ethnic minority members were selected!

Gemma Townsend selected for Lewisham Deptford

Gemma Townsend was selected last night to fight Lewisham Deptford at the next general election. Gemma is  one of the deputy chairmen of Lewisham Deptford Conservative Association and she currently works for Kit Malthouse at City Hall.

The other finalists were Nicola Bates, Darren Caplan and Suzanne Poole.

The area has only had a Conservative MP for four of the last one hundred years (Denis Hanley, 1931-35) and the Labour MP for the seat since 1987 has been Joan Ruddock, now a junior minister at the Department for Energy and Climate Change.

Joan Ruddock goes into the next election defending a notional majority of 13,012 (based on the Rallings and Thrasher calculations) over the Liberal Democarats with the third-placed Conservatives starting from a base of 12.7% of the vote.

Update: These comments just in from Gemma and the association chairman -

Becky Stevens, chairman of Lewisham Deptford Conservatives, says:

"We are delighted to have such a strong local candidate to take on Joan Ruddock at the next General Election.  Ruddock is inextricably linked with the failings of this Labour Government and the effects their policies have had on the local people of Lewisham Deptford.  Gemma has the knowledge, the experience and the drive to make a real difference here and I know the whole association is looking forward to working with her."

Gemma Townsend says:

"I'm thrilled to have been selected to represent Lewisham Deptford and I'm looking forward to moving back to the area. Having lived in Deptford in the past and having been involved with the association over the last three years I know and care about the issues that affect local people. I'm now working at City Hall on the policing and crime agenda across London, but I'll also be drawing on experiences I gained working for a South London Council and as a Londoner to make sure I deliver an exciting campaign that engages new voters and retains our core Tory vote in Lewisham."

Gurcharan Singh selected for Ealing Southall

Gurcharan Singh has been selected to contest Ealing Southall at the next general election. He was one of five Labour councillors in Ealing to defect to the Conservatives during the by-election in the constituency in July 2007.

The seat was won for Labour at that by-election by Virendra Sharma with a majority of 5,070 over the Liberal Democrats, with Conservative candidate, Tony Lit, in third place.

The Rallings and Thrasher projection (based on the 2005 general election result) of the slightly redrawn seat suggests that Labour will go into the general election defending a notional majority of 13,140 over the Conservatives, with Cllr Singh requiring a swing of 19 per cent to take the seat.

He had been a Labour councillor for 25 years when he defected to the Conservatives and has held a number of civic posts including chair of Housing, chair of Planning, chair of Recycling and Waste, Cabinet member for the Environment, deputy leader of the council and Mayor of Ealing.

Other recent defectors now contesting seats for the Conservatives include Rehman Chishti in Gillingham and Rainham and Jeff Clarke in Wirral South.

Judith Pattinson selected to fight Workington again

Judith Pattinson, has been selected to fight Workington in Cumbria - the seat where she stood in 2005 under the old boundaries.

At that election, she reduced the majority of sitting Labour MP, Tony Cunningham, by 4,000 votes. Cunningham goes into the next election, under slightly redrawn boundaries, with a notional majority of 8,226, according to the calculations of Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth, meaning that Judith would require a swing of 11.5 per cent to oust him.

Judith is 54 and a former mayor of Carlisle.

Andy Morgan adopted for Bolton South East

Just received this press release:

"Cllr Andy Morgan was today adopted by the Officers and Members of the Bolton South East Conservative Association to be their Parliamentary Candidate at the next General Election.

Chairman of the Association Aiden Meagan said

“We are delighted to have a local candidate of Andy’s calibre to fight and challenge Labour for Bolton South East and we all look forward to working with him to give the residents a real and credible alternative to the Labour Party candidate.”

Commenting after his official Adoption as Candidate Andy said:

“I am honoured and privileged to have been selected to fight Bolton South East for the Conservatives at the next General Election.  The good folk of Bolton South East have been taken for granted by the Labour Party for far too long and I will work from now until the next election to give them a real choice and alternative to Labour.”

“The continued neglect and under funding of the smaller communities that make up Bolton South East such as Little Lever, Farnworth and Kearsley by the Labour party is a disgrace. It is imperative that their individualism and separate identity is treasured and protected and I will campaign to do that.”

Cllr Andy Morgan currently represents the Hulton Ward on Bolton Council and is the Conservative Party’s spokesman for Health and also the Council Health Scrutiny Chairman."

The projected Labour majority is 12,652.

Michelle Tempest adopted for Durham North West

Dr Michelle Tempest was adopted yesterday for Hilary Armstrong MP's seat of Durham North West.

Michelle will have to oust the LibDems as the second-placed candidate in a seat that Labour hold with a projected majority of 13,440.

Dr Tempest's articles for ConservativeHome can be read here.

George Eustice selected to oust Julia Goldsworthy

Cornishman George Eustice - former head of press to David Cameron and now coordinating external relations at CCHQ - has been adopted this afternoon for Camborne and Redruth.

The seat is LibDem-held with a projected majority over Labour of 4,119.

The Tories are in a very close third place however and we wish George every success.  He's definitely one of politics' good guys.

Jack Perschke adopted for Derby South

Jack Perschke has been adopted as the Candidate for Derby South this morning. Jack is an ex-army officer, former aid worker and is now a management consultant with Ernst and Young.

Derby South is currently held by Margaret Beckett and she enjoys a projected majority over the second-placed Liberal Democrats of nearly 13,000.

Jack's Platform articles for ConservativeHome can be read here.

Eric Pickles predicts that Edward Timpson is likely to remain MP for Crewe and Nantwich

Eric Pickles MP returns to Crewe and Nantwich for the first time since May's historic by-election victory.

During the Crewe and Nantwich by election I had always assumed that a know it all central Labour Party has imposed vicious crass class hatred campaign on a reluctant local Party. I was wrong, and would like to make this public apology; no the Labour Whips and the Party apparatchiks found Crewe Labour’s inner soul.

Labour has picked a new candidate to replace the defeated Dunwoody, in his first press release to get any coverage he attacks the Conservative MP and local hero Edward Timpson, for being lazy and continuing to work as a barrister – not true of course – but when did the actuality ever get in the way of a Labour smear campaign.

Judging from the local reaction to the smear be must be regretting the ill judged release. The local paper’s letters columns are full of people defending Edwards’s hard work and from the moment you arrive in the town you have no doubt who is the MP and that he is working for everyone.

In the centre of town a shop window next to a white portcullis stands the name Edward Timpson MP in bold letters. Ex canvassers will remember this as the central campaign office which Edward has taken over has his main constituency office. The last time I had seen it the room had been packed with blue balloons. I am back for the first time since the exciting days of early summer to officially open the office.

People who travelled from across the country in May should feel proud; Edward has more than fulfilled his election pledges: weekly surgeries spread around the constituency, a report-back newspaper, regular column in the local press and a willingness to help anyone is the hallmark of this new Conservative MP. He is fighting hard against two local closures the sorting office and the tax office. Last week he was thrown out of the tax offices for daring to enquire after his constituent’s jobs. Undaunted he continued the meeting in the park outside.

Waiting for my train back to London I bumped into someone I met during the campaign he said, “You probably don’t remember me but we met in Crewe Market when you introduced me to Mr Timpson. I had my doubts about voting Tory, but you said I should give him a chance, well I did, I voted Tory for the first time ever. I have no regrets and I will be voting for him to finally get rid of Brown when the time comes.” I suspect that he is not alone and that Edward will be MP for Crewe and Nantwich for many decades to come.

2.45pm Good news update: "I have just been contacted by the Labour candidate for Crewe and Nantwich who assures me he never said that Edward Timpson was "lazy" and that he "never would". I'm happy to clarify this comment, and delighted that Edward's hard work for the people of Crewe and Nantwich is even recognised by the opposition. Well done Edward, and keep it up."

Julie Rook selected for Wolverhampton North East

Julie Rook has been selected to contest Wolverhampton North East at the next general election. A 43-year-old businesswoman, she grew up in Kent is currently a councillor in Dover. She is married to a butcher and has two grown up children, one of whom is a fresher at the University of Birmingham.

The seat has been held for Labour since 1992 by Ken Purchase, who is standing down at the next election. After minor boundary changes, his replacement as Labour candidate, Emma Reynolds, will be defending a notional majority of 8,628, according to the calculations of Professors Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth.

Julie requires a swing of 12.5% to take the seat, which was last held for the Conservatives between 1987 and 1992 by Maureen Hicks.

Loanna Morrison adopted for Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Bermondsey and Old Southwark has selected Loanna Morrison as their parliamentary candidate. Loanna lives in the area and was the Party's candidate in the recent Rotherhithe by-election. She is a journalist and businesswoman with experience nationally and internationally in media and telecommunications. She runs her own business in London as well as being a single mother of two, with a son in the army.

The other finalists were Gemma Townsend and Nicola Bates.

Conservatives are in third place in this seat held by Liberal Democrat Simon Hughes with a projected majority of 5,801.

More about Loanna here.

Glyn Chambers selected for Vauxhall

Glyn Chambers was selected to fight Labour's Kate Hoey in Vauxhall last night. Glyn is the Association Chairman and, like Kate, hails from Ulster.  The Conservatives are third placed in a seat that Ms Hoey holds with a projected majority of 8,534 over the LibDems.