Labour's shock hold of Glenrothes at yesterday's by-election - and by a margin of 6,737 votes - came as a something of a surprise to virtually every observer of the contest.
When I set out what was at stake yesterday, few thought a Labour victory possible, let alone likely - and certainly not on that scale.
Whilst the SNP spin is that they have almost halved Labour's majority in the seat and seen their own vote go up, the result must surely mark the end of Alex Salmond's extended honeymoon as Scotland's First Minister. His party started here with a far better infrastructure than in Glasgow East (which they won in July on a swing of over 20 per cent) and the confidence exuded by the SNP campaign all the way until polling day suggests that they too will have been flabbergasted by the extent of Labour's victory, on a swing to the SNP of a mere 5 per cent.
The Conservatives can take some heart from the fact that the party's candidate, Maurice Golden, beat the Liberal Democrat into fourth place, although naturally it was a disappointment to lose our deposit. However, there was always going to be a huge squeeze in this contest and the drop in the Lib Dem vote (down 10 per cent) was far more dramatic than the fall in the Tory vote share (down 3 per cent).
Those with more intimate knowledge of the seat will doubtless provide their analysis of how and why Labour won during the course of the day, but local factors clearly played a part, with the SNP having to defend the actions of the local council, whose leader was their candidate.
But Gordon Brown must be waking up with a smile on his face for the first time in quite a while, presumably seeing the result as a vindication of his own position.
Could it even persuade him to call a general election sooner than we all think?
Editorial comment from Tim Montgomerie:
"All Unionists should be delighted at this setback for the Nationalists. This is a significant bloody nose for Alex Salmond and makes him look foolish for his claims of likely victory.
"Ultimately Conservatives will be pleased that Gordon Brown stays in position. All polling evidence suggests that he is beatable in a General Election and a Brown v Cameron contest will not be one that Tories fear.
"Sometimes local elections and by-elections do turn on local issues and this election saw Labour campaign fiercely and effectively against various charges imposed by the SNP local council. Labour won't have that advantage in a national campaign against the Conservatives."
