ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Conor Burns selected for Bournemouth West

Many congratulations Conor. Hugely deserved.

Conor inherits a projected Conservative majority of 2,608.

Leah Fraser: Why Wallasey and Worsley (and many seats like them) DO matter to the Conservative Party

Last Saturday we discussed Tory targeting strategies.  Today, Cllr Leah Fraser, the Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Wallasey, calls for a distinction between immediate target seats and more medium term targets.

Every book and manual you read about winning elections talks about the need for targeting.  Whether it’s polling districts in a ward; wards in a borough or parliamentary constituencies.  In days of limited resources – people and money – it makes sense for their efforts to go where they can make the greatest difference.

The focus is, rightly, on the next General Election.  If we break down the seats purely on the basis of that election – we have the ones we hold, the ones we can win and those we won’t win, even with a 20% lead nationally.

Now, it would be crazy to pour scarce resources into seats which have a notional Conservative majority.  If the local Party cannot hold a seat in the current climate, there must either be a very strong local factor against us or that association is not performing and no amount of additional resources will help.  Money spent badly is worse than money not spent at all.

Those seats we can win and ‘need’ to form the next Government are most easily assessed via the swing required for us to win, compared to last time round. 

These are the seats which have, pretty much, selected their candidates and are working towards detailed, month-by-month campaign plans.  The Party’s focus on selecting early for target seats is already paying off in many places.  It certainly made a difference in Crewe & Nantwich.

Peter Lyburn has been adopted for Perth and North Perthshire

Peter Lyburn has been adopted for one of Scotland's most marginal seats.  ToryBear has more.

Mr Lyburn, just 24, has been selected for Perth and North Perthshire.  The seat has a projected SNP majority of 1,521.  The PoliticsHome poll of marginals predicts an SNP hold.  PoliticsHome does, however, predict that the Conservatives should gain Dumfries and Galloway, Renfrewshire East and Edinburgh South.

Marginal seats data for sale

Late on Saturday we published the headline findings of a PoliticsHome survey of 35,000 voters in 238 marginal seats.  The survey predicted a Tory majority of 146.

The poll is rich in data and the results for individual seats are available for purchase.  This PDF of the results in Brighton Kemptown Pavilion gives you an idea of what you would get for your money.

People interested in purchasing data for their constituencies should apply to [email protected]*.

* In the interests of full disclosure: PoliticsHome is owned by Stephan and Rosamund Shakespeare; who also own ConservativeHome.

Should the Tories spend £2m in California?

Obviously not but bear with us for a minute.

It's October 2000 and George W Bush is looking good for victory in his battle with Al Gore. Republican strategists get giddy and start believing that they can win California.  They divert funds from states like Florida and buy TV ads in the Golden State.  The rest is, of course, a history of hanging chads.  Al Gore won California easily but Bush only prevailed in Florida after numerous recounts and legal actions.

California is on the minds of the Tory strategists who have to make difficult decisions about resource allocation.  The Party is at 52% in one poll (45.4% in the overnight ConHome poll of polls).

In this political climate should the party still be spending money in Harlow (Lab maj 357) and Battersea (Lab maj 336)?  Should more money be directed to the seats that would win us a majority of one?  Should some resources start going to seats that could win us a majority of 100?  Should serious money go to some high profile battles against Cabinet ministers like Alistair Darling and Jack Straw, distracting them in the process?  [The Tory version of the LibDems' (unsuccessful) decapitation strategy.]

The veterans of the 1997 and 2001 campaigns can't quite believe the current polls. They want targeting strategy to remain cautious.  Others believe that the next General Election represents a historic opportunity to smash Labour.  Reduced to 250 seats (or even less) the bolder targeters believe that Labour can be condemned to opposition for two parliaments if they are hit hard enough now.

More money is becoming available to Tory budgeters and it might be that the party could resource all seats (but is that a cop out?).  There is still determination to flood LibDem/ Tory seats with money despite recent evidence that the LibDem vote is very soft in the south.  Much will depend upon intensive polling of individual battlegrounds.  The party won't rely on national headline polls to make these judgments.

Iain Dale meets Chloe Smith, the youngest Tory female candidate

Finalists for Bournemouth West

Unconfirmed but our understanding is that the four finalists for the re-run selection are:

1. Conor Burns
2. Vanessa Gearson
3. Fiona Kemp
4. Guy Opperman

Jeremy Clarkson for Sheffield Hallam!

Last week's Economist asked who would speak for Britain's rednecks...

Over at the Jeremy Clarkson fansite there is a thread dedicated to making the Top Gear presenter the Tory candidate for Sheffield Hallam (Nick Clegg's seat).  Jeremy Clarkson AND Zac Goldsmith on the Tory benches would be quite something!

Recent 'wisdom' from Mr Clarkson's Sun column:

• "What interests me about the Greenpeace case is that the legal system now accepts global warming is real, that man is causing it, and that anyone is entitled to smash up anything they like if they feel it will help cool the world down again. I just wish the prosecution had brought the founder of Greenpeace to the stand. He’s called Dr Patrick Moore, and he explained recently that even though the amount of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere is rising, global temperatures have been falling since 1998. When asked if he thought man was definitely causing global warming, he said “the answer is a resounding No”. Sadly, for thinking this, he may have to be killed." (13 September)
• "For too long we’ve sat in our ivory towers buying sofas on the never-never and cars on credit. And imagining that if we don’t bother turning on the airport parking lights all will be well so long as we are wearing our hi-viz jackets. It’s been the same story in government. They’ve squandered the proceeds from the good times on idiotic, unnecessary and extremely expensive schemes to reduce global warming. Gordon Brown even sold off most of our gold reserves when prices were at rock bottom. Sitting in a Jacuzzi of cash, it was almost like he didn’t care. But he will do soon. We all will. Because the world is a see-saw and it is inevitable that we shall sink into the pit of poverty as fast as the Far East rises." (6 September)
• "People I know who understand the dark, mythical world of “the economy” say we can forget about normal recessions. The one galloping over the horizon right now is going to be a tropical, industrial-grade whopper. They say the next few years are going to be hell. Worse than anything in living memory. Genghis Khan bad. Interestingly, however, Comrade Brown has decided that the biggest issue facing the nation right now is not the economy or the number of punctured bodies on every street corner. No. It’s the amount of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere." (19 July)

67% of candidates say mutual aid from other associations is poor or very poor

A ConservativeHome survey of 125 adopted candidates tested the quality of support that they receive.

Key findings:

• 67% said mutual aid from other associations was poor or very poor.
• 59% said the timeliness of financial support from CCHQ was poor or very poor.
• 84% of candidates thought CCHQ literature was okay, good or very good.
• 83% said CCHQ policy briefings were okay, good or very good.

We discussed the issue of timeliness of financial support with contacts at CCHQ.  They acknowledged that this had been a real issue, blaming periodic cashflow problems but also an over-complicated approval-for-payment process, that had now been overhauled.  We'll ask candidates the same questions in a year's time and see if there has been improvement.

The full results can be inspected in the graphic below.  Click to enlarge.

Boost for Guto Bebb in battle for Aberconwy

The Western Mail is reporting that Labour MP Betty Williams, 64, is standing down from one of our party's top target seats in Wales.  Tory candidate Guto Bebb will feel even more confident of overturning the projected Labour majority of just 243.

Would you like to unseat Alistair Darling?

As reported by Curly and the Scotsman, our Edinburgh SW candidate has quit.

The sitting Labour MP - one Alistair Darling - has a projected majority of just over 7,000 over the second-placed Conservatives.

The Guardian surveys 66 Tory candidates

"They are socially conservative and want to reduce the time limit for abortion to 22 weeks or lower. Most of them want tax breaks which discriminate in favour of marriage. But the Conservative class of 2010 - David Cameron's likely intake of MPs if he wins the next general election - are prepared to wait for tax cuts and regard Europe as a far less divisive issue than their predecessors, an exclusive survey of Tory candidates reveals today."

The Guardian publishes its own survey of Tory candidates today.  Its sample is considerably smaller than ConservativeHome's survey (the key results of which are here).  The Guardian quotes a number of Tory candidates.  Here are some of the key observations when it comes to the tax treatment of married couples and others:

"It's not about giving married couples extra benefits... But at the moment they are being penalised under the current government. Civil partnerships should be treated equally too." - Deborah Dunleavy, Bolton North West

"Would you prefer to be a single mum with a series of failed relationships with males, in preference to having a stable settled relationship with one man for the rest of your life? We seem to be championing the fact that it's all right to be accepting the second best route at the moment." - Philip Milton, Devon North

"There are huge problems coming from single-parent families. Promoting marriage, which offers an extra £1,000 per household, per year: a lot of people would go in for that in my constituency." - Jeremy Moulton, Southampton Test

""I do think that parents raising children should be treated equally alongside those that are married.  I don't think being married should be the only option. Clearly we have moved on since the 1950s." - Goto Bebb, Aberconwy

""It shouldn't be the government's responsibility to dictate to people how they live their lives, so long as it is legal ... I was brought up by my mother. She and my father divorced but he was always there." - Ken Andrew

On abortion and marriage the ConHome and Guardian surveys produced very similar results.  One area of notable difference comes on green taxation:

• The Guardian's finding: "66% of the candidates told the Guardian they supported the party on green taxes as long as Osborne stands by his commitment that they will not increase the overall tax burden. But 32% were unconvinced by the taxes, which are designed to curb pollution, and some candidates said they would hit the poor."
• ConHome: "40% agreed with 'Higher taxation of cars and airlines, offset by lower taxation of families'.  52% disagreed."

The explanation for the difference may be in the phrasing of the question.

Fraser Kemp, 50, joins growing list of Labour retirees

We can add Fraser Kemp to our 'Chicken Watch' list of Labour MPs deciding to quit.  At the age of just fifty he offers another proof of the disillusionment within the parliamentary Labour Party.

The Conservatives have already selected Robert Oliver for the seat of Houghton and Sunderland South; a projected Labour majority of more than 17,000.

Hat-tip to Iain Dale.

8.30pm: Another MP we'd missed from ChickenWatch is Neil Gerrard. Stella Creasy (Facebook) was selected to replace him as the party's candidate for Walthamstow. She was selected from an all-women's shortlist.

Scottish Tories lift suspension of Philip Lardner

The Scottish Party suspended Philip Lardner as a candidate after he praised Iain Smith and called Edward Heath a rat.  They have now lifted the suspension with this formal press statement:

“The Scottish Conservative and Unionist party suspended the candidature of Philip Lardner following an article which appeared in the Sunday Herald newspaper on 22nd June 2008.

“The Party Candidates board having investigated the matter fully has now removed the suspension from Mr Lardner and he is now re-instated and has the full support of both the Party and the Local Conservative and Unionist Party Association as our candidate for the Westminster constituency of North Ayrshire & Arran.

“Philip Lardner has stated his regrets for any offence caused by remarks attributed to him in the Sunday Herald’s article of 22nd June 2008.

The matter is now closed and Mr Lardner looks forward to resuming campaigning in North Ayrshire & Arran.”

Common sense appears to have prevailed on this occasion. Let us hope that this is the beginning of greater tolerance of some diversity of opinion amongst our candidates.