ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Labour's John Austin MP will quit at next election

John Austin is standing down from Erith & Thamesmead at the next General Election.  It's supposedly a relatively safe seat but is anything safe for Labour now?

The seat is one of eleven south London seats for which the Conservative Party will select as a group - as noted last week.

This statement from Mr Austin appears on ePolitix:

"It is unlikely that there will be a General Election before late next year or 2010; in either case I will then be over 65, and 70 by the end of the next Parliament.  At present I feel fit and well and I had thought of delaying a decision until I reach 65, but that would have been unfair on the Party and risk the possibility of being so close to an election that there might not be time for a full selection process if I chose to stand down then.  Erith & Thamesmead is one of the most challenging constituencies with one of the highest levels of casework and whilst I feel fit, active and enthusiastic now, I am not sure that I will want to be working a 7 day, 70 hour week when I am 70."

James Morris adopted for Halesowen and Rowley Regis

James Morris, Director of Localis and an occasional ConservativeHome contributor (see here and here) was adopted yesterday evening for the seat vacated by Nigel Hastilow.  Mr Hastilow resigned after saying that Enoch Powell was partly right about immigration.

James faces a projected Labour majority of 4,140.  We wish him every success in overturning it.

Mark Reckless readopted for Rochester and Strood

It has taken some time but R&S have readopted Mark Reckless today.  Mark fought Bob Marshall-Andrews unsuccessfully at the last two elections but boundary changes mean that the seat now has a projected Conservative majority of 1,501.

10pm: We understand that the other finalists were Jacques Arnold, Dorothy Luckhurst and Katy Bourne. Mr Reckless won on the first round.

7am, 28 July: Dan Hannan MEP blogs a tribute to Mark Reckless

Cameron calls for a general election following Labour's catastrophic defeat in Glasgow

The SNP won Labour's third safest seat in Scotland on a huge swing last night, with the Conservatives beating the LibDems into third place:

John Mason, SNP
11,277 (43.08%, +26.06%)

Margaret Curran, Labour
10,912 (41.69%, -18.99%)

Davena Rankin, Conservative
1,639 (6.26%, -0.64%)

Ian Robertson, LibDem
915 (3.50%, -8.35%)

A stunning result.

Fraser Nelson, who had analysed the constituency as closely as anyone but was still sceptical of an SNP victory, explains Labour's predicament well:

"This is the most momentous Scottish by-election since Hillhead in 1982. The SNP’s greatest victory since the Hamilton by-election which put it on the map in 1967. And a result which has fought off very tough competition to be Gordon Brown’s worst setback yet.

Westminster will want to know what this means for Gordon Brown. The question they should ask is what this means for Labour – and if there is such a thing as “rock bottom” for this party. Because tonight there just seems to be a vacuum, sucking up the Labour Party up very quickly. Yes, it was standing tall a year ago – but so was Bear Stearns. Labour looks like it may be heading the same way. As its National Policy Forum starts today, Labour should try very, very hard to envisage what its worst case scenario now looks like."

David Cameron said to Sky News this morning that voters want a change that only a general election can bring:

"What I wonder is whether we can really put up with this for another 18 months. I think whenever people have had a chance to speak about this government whether at the local elections whether in Crewe, whether in Henley, whether in the London Mayor elections and now in Glasgow they’ve said look we think you’re failing and we want change.

I think the PM should have is holiday but then I think we need an election. We need change in this country and that’s how change should come about."

South London seats to select in one tranche

An "innovative" selection process for south London seats is being considered in which candidates interested in any of the eleven seats below have to to apply to them all as a group rather than just applying to the one they are most suited to:

• Bermondsey & Old Southwark
• Camberwell & Peckham      
• Dulwich & West Norwood
• Erith & Thamesmead
• Greenwich & Woolwich
• Lewisham Deptford
• Lewisham East
• Lewisham West and Penge
• Mitcham & Morden
• Streatham
• Vauxhall

Candidates must submit a single non-specific CV and be available to go to interviews for any of the seats throughout September, October and November.

The advantage of this process is not clear.

Bournemouth West reopens

Following the decision to restart the Bournemouth West selection after one of the finalists was selected for another seat, the seat is now open again for applications.

They need to be received by midday on Tuesday 26th August, with interviews and the big event being held a few weeks later. The notionally Conservative seat became vacant when Sir John Butterfill said he would stand down in March,

Poor health forces Tony Wright MP to step down at next election

Aidan Burley was recently selected as our candidate for Cannock Chase.

Gareth McKeever selected for Westmorland & Lonsdale

Gareth McKeever was selected for Westmorland & Lonsdale last night.

The previously selected candidate for this highly marginal LabourLibDem-held seat, Richard Bell, resigned in January following CCHQ action over a divided association.

Watford candidate arrested

The Watford Observer is reporting that the Conservative candidate there, Cllr Ian Oakley, was arrested in connection with a hate campaign directed at the local LibDems.

Amongst the accusations - and nobody has been found guilty yet so don't jump to conclusions - are the sending of poison pen letters to LibDem councillors and the slashing of car tyres. Hertfordshire Constabulary's crime taskforce has been looking into the crimes in an investigation called Operation Tuition.

Watford is a Labour-held three-way marginal seat.

10.30pm: The Sunday Times is reporting that Mr Oakley has resigned.

Tories focus on "Labour's criminal record" in Glasgow East

The Scottish Conservatives have today launched a hard-hitting leaflet about crime in Glasgow as part of Davina Rankin's by-election bid.  The leaflet focuses upon Glasgow's crime problem - "a serious assault every four hours" and "a drug crime is committed every hour" - and also highlights the Tory MSPs' success at increasing police numbers across Scotland as part of the budget deal agreed earlier this year with the SNP.  A poll at the weekend found Labour 14% ahead of the SNP in the seat with the Tories in fourth place on 7%.  It was in Glasgow East last week that David Cameron made his "right and wrong" speech.

Click on either image to enlarge.

Labour on course to hold Glasgow East

All those Conservatives who want Gordon Brown to stay as Labour leader will be relieved to learn of an ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Mirror that gives the Labour candidate, Margaret Curran MSP, a 14% lead over her SNP rival in the Glasgow East by-election, scheduled for 24th July.

These are the results of the poll of 516 adults  (with 2005 votes in brackets):

• Labour: 47% (60.7%)
• SNP: 33% (17%)
• Liberal Democrat: 9% (12%)
• Conservative: 7% (7%)

The SNP will nonetheless be encouraged at the doubling of support since 2005.  They will also want to get still closer in the ten campaigning days that remain.

A YouGov survey on Friday - covering the whole of Scotland - found the SNP 4% ahead of Labour.

Tory candidate for Nuneaton stands down

News has reached us that the Conservative candidate for Nuneaton, Simon Rouse has stepped down.  This is the official statement:

"It is with great regret that Nuneaton Conservatives have to announce that Simon Rouse has tendered his resignation as the Conservative Prospective Parliamentary Candidate for Nuneaton.  Sadly, Simon has decided that the inevitably heavy demands upon him as a candidate  for a seat as important as Nuneaton are incompatible with his responsibility to his family.

While this is a huge disappointment to his many friends within Nuneaton Conservative Association, they understand his feelings and commend him for getting his priorities right. They offer him, his wife and young son, their best wishes for the future.

In the eighteen months since his selection, Simon has been an exemplary PPC, throwing himself wholeheartedly into the political life of the Association. He proved to be an unparalleled campaign leader in the local elections, both in 2006 (in the North Warwickshire Borough wards of Hartshill and Arley & Whitacre, when all five seats were gained by the Conservatives) and in May this year, when the Conservatives took control of Nuneaton & Bedworth Borough Council for the first time ever.

The search for a new candidate will begin at once.  Simon was chosen at a public “Open Primary” meeting, after an exhaustive process of “sifting” and preliminary interviews to arrive at a suitable shortlist.  The same procedure will be adopted again, to ensure that the right candidate is selected to fight Nuneaton for the Conservatives at the next general election."

Its notional Labour majority of 3,843 makes the seat very attractive in the current environment.

Our comment: "Simon Rouse's announcement is a reminder of how pressurised a candidate's life can be.  The correct decision to pick candidates earlier than we have in previous electoral cycles makes these pressures greater.  ConHome wishes Simon the very best in his future endeavours and wishes Nuneaton much success in finding a new candidate.  The Tories took control of Nuneaton council at the last local elections."

Winning in Wales

As part of his Dale's Tours video series for Telegraph TV, Iain Dale talks to Lyndon Jones about the Conservative Party's prospects in Wales. Mr Jones says that he is looking for a rugby team of MPs; 15 gains.

Bournemouth West selection to be restarted

We don't have much information yet but it appears that the Bournemouth West selection is to be restarted.

Mike Greene was due to face Rebecca Harris in an open primary on Thursday but then Rebecca Harris was adopted for Castle Point.  Caroline Dineage had been named as Ms Harris' replacement but there were some concerns that Cllr Greene had an unfair headstart in campaigning for the primary.  That unfairness could have been rectified by a delay to the open primary.  The restart of the process suggests bigger issues.

8.15am, 8th July: We now understand that the process will begin again in September.  Many factors appear to have contributed to the restart but unhappiness amongst some activists at the failure of a local councillor to progress contributed to some very destructive scrutiny of the candidates that did progress.

Caroline Dineage will take the place of Rebecca Harris in final for Bournemouth West

Following Rebecca Harris' adoption as Tory candidate for Castle Point, Caroline Dineage will now contest the final round of the battle to inherit Sir John Butterfill MP's seat.

Some local Conservatives are calling for Thursday's open primary contest against Mike Greene to be delayed.  There is some concern that Caroline Dineage should have more time to rally supporters.  If the current timetable stands Cllr Greene will have enjoyed a four day head start in recruiting people for the open primary.

ConservativeHome also understands that CCHQ will be asked to space out the selection for plum seats selecting in the future.  One key Bournemouth Tory said that this sort of incident was always possible and could be avoided with a more staggered seat selection timetable.

David Cameron hopes that Glasgow East will give local people a voice

David Cameron visits Glasgow East tomorrow with Iain Duncan Smith, Annabel Goldie and the Tory candidate Davena Rankin.  This statement from Mr Cameron has been issued to the Scottish media:

“The challenges facing the people of Glasgow East have been well documented. That is why this visit with Iain Duncan Smith is so important. We will meet with some of the amazing people who work tirelessly to mend broken lives in their communities.

The solutions to the deepest problems of generational poverty, dependency and unemployment will take a generation to address and we must move beyond the sticking plaster politics of pretending that there are any easy or quick fixes. The answers will lie with the people themselves in this great City and this by-election can play an important role in giving them a voice.

Because the voters will have a choice. A choice between rewarding a Labour Party rudderless in London, leaderless in Scotland and in disarray in Glasgow. Or the Nationalists who view the vote as just another chance to further their agenda of breaking up Britain.  Or a positive change with the Conservatives. Davena Rankin would be a first class and full time MP, in contrast to Labour’s latest favoured candidate who is 5th choice and wants to be a part time MP.

Labour is treating the voters of Glasgow East like fools.  Glasgow deserves a local champion dedicated to fighting for its people. That is why I am proud to be in Glasgow to campaign with Davena and Annabel and Iain. They have, through words and deeds shown a remarkable level of commitment and understanding of the challenges ahead.”

Rebecca Harris selected for Castle Point

Rebecca Harris today pipped Dominic Schofield to the post to win the selection for Castle Point, out of the shortlist of eight. Castle Point is a Conservative seat currently held by defector to UKIP Bob Spink MP.

Rebecca Harris - who "worked in publishing, then later for the Conservative Research Department and as a special adviser helping to put together party policies on health, education and transport at the last election" - had been in the final for next week´s Bournemouth West final with Mike Greene.

Labour choose local MSP to fight Glasgow East

Scottish Tory Boy is reporting that Glasgow MSP Margaret Curran will be Labour's candidate in the Glasgow East by-election.

This morning's Scotsman reports that all Labour MPs in Scotland and MSPs have been ordered to help defend a seat - the loss of which could spell the end of Gordon Brown.

On CentreRight yesterday, Simon Chapman urged the Conservative Party to make it "the social justice by-election":

"The Conservatives won't come close to winning this by-election. But it presents an extraordinary opportunity to invite the nation's media to visit this archetypal Labour area and take that look around themselves - to see how Labour has betrayed the poorest in our society."

Davena Rankin has already been adopted as our candidate.

Finalists for Castle Point

1. Sarah Candy
2. Rebecca Harris
3. Dr Philip Lee
4. Katy Lindsay
5. Davd McFarlane
6. Mark Page
7. Dominic Schofield
8. Liz Truss

The final two stages will both take place this Saturday, 5th July.

Rebecca Harris and Mike Greene are finalists for Bournemouth West

This is Dorset is reporting that Rebecca Harris and Mike Greene are the two finalists for Bournemouth West, the seat being vacated by Sir John Butterfill MP.  Next Thursday, July 10, an open primary will decide the candidate.

ConservativeHome understands that the other finalists were Philip Lee, Guy Opperman, Caroline Dineage, Kedra Goodall and Michelle Tempest (reserve).

James Brokenshire MP selected for Old Bexley & Sidcup

James Brokenshire, whose current constituency is being split into three, has been selected out of the final four to run for Derek Conway's seat of Old Bexley & Sidcup.

Davena Rankin selected for Glasgow East

We thought Pat McPhee would remain the selected candidate for Glasgow East by-election but for reasons we're not yet aware of it now appears that Davena Rankin will be fighting it. Rankin said:

“I am delighted to have been selected to fight the seat of Glasgow East, and would like to take this opportunity to wish David Marshall a speedy recovery as he steps down. For too long the Labour Party has taken Glasgow for granted, Labour has abused and neglected Glasgow when it should have been standing up and fighting for the people of this city. I’m sending a message to everyone in Glasgow East that I want to be a strong, tireless and committed MP for everybody in this constituency.”

Her biography is given as follows:

"Davena Rankin was educated at Knightswood Secondary School in Glasgow and the University of Sussex where she graduated with a BSC (Hons) in Medicinal Chemistry. She worked as a Shop Manager for Marie Curie Cancer Care in 1995 then as a Customer Care Advisor for the TSB Bank plc from 1995 to 1996. In 1997 she carried out basic training as a Royal Naval Officer and from 1997 until 1998 she worked with the Student & Placement Entrepreneurial Graduate programme, for Nemquest Ltd at the University of Glasgow. She was a Marketing and Publicity Officer for the IBLS Commercial Liaison Office at the University of Glasgow from 1998 until 2000 and then became Commercial Manager for Research & Innovation Services at Glasgow Caledonian University.

Davena Rankin is an active member of UNISON where she is Branch Secretary of the GCU Branch and also sits on the National Women’s Committee, National Black Members Committee and the Higher Education Service Group Executive, and chairs the Scottish Women’s Committee."

Annabel Goldie welcomed the selection:

"I have known Davena for some time and she is a tireless campaigner, not just for the Scottish Conservatives but for everyone she is seeking to represent. You don’t have to change passports to get the change you need, and that’s why the Conservatives, not the SNP, are the real alternative to this imploding Labour Government."

Related link: Andrew Morrison's profile of Glasgow East

Dr Phillip Lee: Parliament needs more mathematicians and scientists

Dr Phillip Lee is a practising GP who has further degrees in Human Biology and Biological Anthropology and has been on the Conservative Party’s Priority List of Candidates since its inception in May 2006. He looks at the professional backgrounds of Conservative MPs and candidates and notes a worrying lack of those who have experience in the realms of science.

Margaret Thatcher is rightly remembered for many things. Primarily, it is because she was the first female British Prime Minister. Of particular interest to me, however, and somewhat surprisingly, Mrs Thatcher was the first Prime Minister to hold a science degree. I stumbled across this piece of information whilst watching the ‘Thatcher Night’ on BBC 4 recently. Armed with this new fact, I thought it would be interesting to ascertain the academic backgrounds of present Conservative MPs and those of Parliamentary candidates. In view of the many successes of the Thatcher government, based in her own words upon a combination of those qualities needed for good scientific study, that of logic and instinct, the results of my brief review make for interesting reading.

I should declare up front that I am a proud possessor of a few science degrees, and as a priority candidates list member from its inception, I undeniably have a vested interest in highlighting the absence of scientists on the Opposition benches and amongst our group of selected candidates! However, despite admitting to my naked ambition, I do genuinely believe that the absence of scientists from the Conservative Parliamentary party is far from ideal.

Andrew Morrison: Glasgow East has suffered from Labour's tired, failed social policy

Andrew Morrison, an accountant and resident of Glasgow East, offers an overview of the constituency ahead of the upcoming by-election.

This constituency is among the most deprived in Britain and is home to the ex-council ward ‘Calton’ which - as David Cameron mentioned in one of his first speeches as leader - was reported to have has a male life expectancy of 53.9 years. This is appallingly low compared to the UK average of 75.9 years.  Even Iraqis, who lack a universally free health service, can expect to live much longer than this.  Glasgow East is also home to the Easterhouse estate – famous for inspiring former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith to set up the Centre for Social Justice.

Cosmetically the areas around Glasgow East have been modernised and many of the large communal housing blocks built in the bleak ‘Brutalist’ architectural style have been demolished, however the area still suffers from all the big problems which plague inner cities – worklessness, alcohol abuse, drug addiction, petty crime.  Glasgow East suffers from these problems on a larger scale compared to other inner city constituencies. 

Not all of the area is doom and gloom however.  Since the electoral borders were altered to create Glasgow East more affluent neighbourhoods are now included in the area.  Suburbs such as Carmyle, Garrowhill and Mount Vernon are relatively peaceful and such areas are likely to be heavily targeted by the Nationalists.

Sadly for them however, Labour incumbents in Glasgow have hardly had reason to stir in their slumber.  The closest this area came to turning Conservative was during the Scots Tories apogee in 1955, where nationally the party won more than 50% of the popular vote.  At that election the party polled 42.2% of all votes cast in this seat, and the Labour candidate was still returned to Westminster safely.