Largely using this site's A-list the Taxcutter blog has listed the swings achieved by those 68 A-listers* who have fought seats at previous elections. 'Taxcutter' finds that 22 achieved swings above the national average swing of 2.21% and 46 achieved below-average swings. 12 of the 22 achieving above average swings were men.
The analysis is crude but will be seized upon by A-list critics as proof that many of the party's best vote-winners are not being promoted to be future MPs (anyone volunteering to compile a list of high swingers not on the A-list?). Reasons why the analysis is crude include:
- Candidates in non-target seats (which many A-listers fought in previous elections) are encouraged to devote their efforts to help target seats and so they were part-time campaigners in the seats they were selected for.
- An individual who achieved a strong positive swing may have prospered because they were against a weak candidate rather than because of their own merits (and vice versa).
- A good swing may reflect the fact that the seat had a particularly poor result at a previous election (and vice versa).
- The national swing is an inappropriate benchmark for comparisons in many instances. A regional comparison would be fairer because the Tories did very well in London at the 2005 General Election but quite poorly in northern seats.
For these and other reasons it is unfair to read too much into the past performance of individual candidates. What does seem reasonable, however, to conclude is that the performance of A-listers as a whole is hardly remarkable.
* ConservativeHome understands that two of the names on The Taxcutters list - Matthew Collings and Caroline Flynn-MacLeod - are not A-listers but have been given a 'local passport' for South Northamptonshire.
