CCHQ has confirmed that standard by-election procedeures will apply in the selection of the Tory candidate to fight for Eric Forth's seat of Bromley and Chislehurst. The party's candidates committee will present the local party with a shortlist of suitable candidates after extensive consultation with the B&C Conservative Association. This list will almost certainly include A-list candidates but it may also include local candidates such as GLA member Bob Neill.
CCHQ insist that this involves no climbdown - as has been suggested by today's Times newspaper - and that no precedent has been set for other constituencies to insist upon negotiating their own shortlists.
Nigel Farage is expected to be UKIP's candidate for B&C.
The LibDem campaign got off to a poor start after the party began mobilising its campaign activists ahead of yesterday's funeral for Mr Forth. Sir Menzies Campbell then promised that no campaigning would begin until after the by-election writ had been moved. Such a promise, if kept, would severely limit the LibDems' efforts to get a bandwagon of support behind their candidate. Waiting until after the funeral would have been deemed respectful enough.
Assuming a Tory victory (but expecting some erosion of support given that numerous parties will contest the seat) these are the factors by which ConservativeHome will be judging the contest:
- Will Team Cameron succeed in persuading the local party to choose a candidate who is in tune with the party leader's 'modern compassionate conservatism'?
- Will Ming be able to revive his failing leadership by being associated with a campaign that eats into the Tories' share of the vote?
- How low will Labour go?
- Will the BNP stand and how will they fare?
- Will the Greens stand and put in a strong showing on the back of the increasing interest in environmental issues?
- Can UKIP benefit from any right-wing unhappiness at the Cameron project?
Related link: The battle for Bromley & Chislehurst
