Nigel Huddleston is a Director in the Strategy practice of Deloitte and was the parliamentary candidate for Luton South in the last election.
The results of a Deloitte/YouGov survey of more than 2,000 UK adults add statistical support to what many of us already suspected and what ConservativeHome has already reported: The TV debates were the dominant feature of the election and may have single-handedly altered the outcome.
Several polls immediately following the debates showed a substantial boost for Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats, and this new survey confirms that actual voting behaviour was indeed impacted by the debates - though perhaps not as spectacularly as some snap polls suggested at the time of the debates.
Key findings of the survey are as follows:
TV versus other media
- Television was the dominant and preferred medium for voters in learning about the election. 76% of respondents said they used TV to learn about the election, 49% national newspapers, 23% local newspapers, 29% national radio, 14% local radio, 25% leaflets and 33% discussions with friends and family. Just 16% said party manifestoes, and 7% door to door campaigning by politicians. 41% of respondents said TV was the single most influential source on their voting decision.
TV debates impacted turnout
- 53% of those who watched the leaders' debates said they impacted the way they chose to vote (68% of 18-24 year olds). The leaders' debates had double the impact on the voting decisions of the younger (18-24) versus older (55+) demographic group, and twice the impact in the East of England versus Scotland and Northern Ireland. The survey revealed that the leaders' debates were more than five times more influential than party political broadcasts in influencing voting decisions.
- The most common 'impact' on viewers was for the debates to entrench their existing voting intention, but the debates also appear to have contributed to increasing voter turnout - especially amongst the young, in Scotland and in London.
- 4% of viewers (7% in London) said the debates had encouraged them to vote when they had previously decided not to vote at all.
TV debates impacted the young most
- 17% of those who watched the debates said that the debates had changed their opinion of the leaders - and this impact was almost twice as strong with younger than older voters.
- Perhaps most significantly, 6% of viewers said that the leaders' debates caused them to change the political party they had otherwise intended to vote for. The regions where this impact was strongest were: Wales and the Midlands; and the least: Scotland, London and the South.
- There was a social as well as age and regional aspect to the impact of the debates. The leaders' debates cemented the voting choices of ABC1 viewers to a greater degree than C2DE viewers, and persuaded more C2DE viewers than ABC1 viewers to change the political party they wished to vote for.
The average constituency size at the last election was about 70,000 voters with an average turnout of about 46,000. The results of this survey would suggest that in an average UK constituency, the debates motivated hundreds of voters to vote when they otherwise would not have done, and hundreds more altered their voting intentions as a result of watching the debates.
When you remember that the Conservatives won 16 seats by less than 1,000 votes, and didn't win 12 seats by less than 1,000 votes (the most marginal 21 Tory targets being lost by less than 20,000 votes in total), it seems reasonable to conclude that the leaders' debates may well have altered the outcome of the entire election.
Whether the debates will be similarly impactful at the next election remains to be seen. But they are almost certainly here to stay. The TV networks loved them, the political commentators were enthralled by them, and the public were engaged and motivated by them.
Only 17% of survey respondents said the debates should not be held in the future, whereas 42% said they should occur during - but only during - general election campaigns, while 29% of respondents said they would also like to see leaders' debates at least once a year or more between elections.
***About the research
Statistics outlined in this article are taken from a survey conducted by YouGov, based on a question set written by Deloitte, amongst 4,199 UK adults (aged 18 years plus). The sample of 4,199 respondents was split at the beginning of the survey in order that half completed the first module of questions and half completed the second. This was implemented to ensure quality of response throughout the entire questionnaire. Fieldwork was conducted between 9th and 12th July 2010. The survey was conducted using an online interview, amongst members of the YouGov panel of individuals who have consented to take part in surveys. Respondents were sampled/weighted to reflect the UK population, based on the following criteria: age, gender, social grade, region and newspaper readership. Population figures used for sampling/weighting were sourced from the Office for National Statistics and National Readership Survey data.
About Deloitte
In this press release references to Deloitte are references to Deloitte LLP, which is among the country's leading professional services firms. The information contained in this press release is correct at the time of going to press.
