CCHQ believes that they fell short with three key voting groups; Scotland, public sector workers; and ethnic communities;
- The failure in Scotland was most evident. The party kept its one seat but actually lost vote share.
- The party under-performed in constituencies with large public sector votes - either as people working for the state or receiving benefits from the state. Polling of local government workers, the state-dependent charity sector and other state-dependent groups had consistently shown little Tory progress over the last few years.
- The party also struggled in seats with large ethnic communities; even when, as in Hammersmith, the party had recruited ethnic candidates. This was most evident in inner London. The pattern evident at the last mayoral election when ethnicity was a more reliable predictor of voting intention than class has persisted.
CCHQ hope to address these weaknesses in government by massive efforts at reassurance. The leadership believes that the fears of Scottish, public sector and ethnic voters can only be addressed from government. 'They don't believe us when we say we're not two-headed, monstrous Thatcherites so we'll just have to prove it in government', one leading Cameroon told ConservativeHome. A reassurance strategy will be reinforced by the pressures of coalition government status. It will be challenged by the voices within the Conservative Party who believe that the party will get more vote conversion by focusing on England and over-taxed private sector workers. “All sensible marketing strategies focus on the most receptive customers, not the least receptive customers,” said one Tory insider.
Polling provided to CCHQ suggests that tax cuts for low income private sector workers and a promise to get a fairer deal for London and England are big vote winners. Cameron's deep commitment to the Union means he remains reluctant to play 'the English card', however.
