In about ten years’ time David Cameron will be an ex-Prime Minister, touring the US lecture circuit. Copies of the 2010 Tory manifesto will be gathering dust on university book shelves. One legacy of an expected Cameron victory at the next General Election will still be very potent, however, and that will be the ‘Class of 2010’ – the largest increase in the number of Conservative MPs in modern times. These MPs will set the direction of Conservative politics for the next generation. They will be the ministers of the future. They may even provide the next Prime Minister.
The sheer number of new Conservative MPs isn’t the only factor that makes them such an interesting phenomenon. Also noteworthy are their political views and their likely independence of mind.
They are Thatcherite in that they want lower taxes, are deeply Eurosceptic and believe in school choice. They are at home in modern Britain in that they are supportive of gay rights, are civil libertarian and use the NHS.
Scroll down these pages for a full overview on the instincts of this next generation. This post on their key views is particularly important.
Although the global recession and the Labour debt legacy have significantly disrupted Tory plans for government the overall consistency of the Cameron agenda is notable. In ten key areas there has been a steady discipline in the modernisation of the Conservative Party:
Social justice: The first act of David Cameron's leadership was to establish the social justice policy group under the direction of Iain Duncan Smith. A Department of Social Justice is a likely feature of a Cameron-shaped Whitehall. The pupil premium for inner city schools, the retention of the minimum wage and a commitment to eliminate the 'couple penalty' in the benefits system are examples of the many practical policies that have emerged from the modernisation of the Conservative Party's one nation tradition.
Promoting female candidates: Huge efforts have been made to promote female candidates. If the party wins the next General Election with a simple majority there will be at least fifty Tory MPs. Preferential treatment saw a number of women become Conservative MEPs in June. Also expect an influx of Tory women into the Lords as the party rushes to ensure it has enough frontbenchers in the Upper Chamber. Although the number of privately-educated candidates is set to decline efforts to promote candidates from lower income backgrounds have been inadequate.
Gay rights: In promising to restore a recognition of marriage in the tax system David Cameron has also said that gay couples in civil partnerships will benefit. In a blow to freedom of association the Tory leader said that Catholic adoption agencies should be required to place children with same sex couples.
NHS protection: In his first Party Conference speech the Tory leader said his political priorities could be summarised with three letters: N H S. The 'NHYes' campaign was an early indication that the Tories were determined to neutralise this once potent Labour issue. Controversial policies like the Patient Passport were quickly junked and David Cameron has promised that the NHS will continue to win inflation-beating resources from the taxpayer despite the debt crunch.
Civil liberties: Some say that David Cameron is not a natural civil libertarian and key advisers (George Osborne and Michael Gove, for example, plus Nick Herbert) are relatively hawkish. During the leadership race, however, David Davis led the party towards a libertarian position on ID cards and the issue of 42 days. With Dominic Grieve the party's civil libertarianism is growing more and more established.
The environment: Many Tory members worry about the Tory leadership's position on climate change and it is not as big a part of the Tory message as was true in Year 1. Nonetheless the next Tory government will green the tax system (after kicking green taxation into the long grass for the duration of the recession), stop the expansion of Heathrow, begin exploratory work on a high speed rail network and also oversee an innovative energy efficiency scheme that will see future reduced home energy bills pay for insulation measures now.
Northern challenge: The Tories made almost no progress in the north under Michael Howard and David Cameron appointed William Hague to ensure the northern party raised more money for more campaigning staff and had more of a northern feel. 'Campaign North' - spearheaded by Michael (now Lord) Bates - has done just that. Despite The Telegraph's suggestion that the party remains stalled in the north, progress is considerable.
Global poverty: During the last recession Ken Clarke, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, cut international aid spending. David Cameron has promised to continue the growth in spending that has characterised the Labour years and move progressively towards the target of spending 0.7% of national income on the world's poorest people. Tory development policy will be distinctive, however. Andrew Mitchell has promised a greater focus on the poorest Commonwealth nations and more transparency and more private sector involvement.
Immigration and asylum: The policy remains tough on immigration but the language has changed and the issue is given much less volume. The cap that Michael Howard proposed for asylum seekers has been abolished and a proper distinction made in policy between those asylum seekers genuinely fleeing persecution and those migrants seeking economic advancement.
A change of tone: David Cameron has not always been able to resist the temptation of Punch & Judy politics at Prime Minister's Question Time - something he has conceded - and he now wears a tie more often than he did in the early days. The Tories have shifted rhetorically, however. The language is less aggressive and there is a reluctance to be calling for resignations. "Let the Mail call for scalps," one senior Tory told ConservativeHome.
There was a time when the 'new messages' dominated the Tory message. In the autumn of 2007 it left the party vulnerable to defeat if Gordon Brown hadn't bottled the honeymoon election. Since 2007 there is more balance in the Tory prospectus with more emphasis on the full range of political issues.
There have been a few occasions when David Cameron has acted against his instincts to be a uniter. His hot-tempered response to the grammar schools row being most notable. His overall approach, however, has been to seek unity rather than division. Dominic Lawson noted how Cameron's language was part of this phenomenon:
"His tricks of political oratory are precisely the opposite of Brown’s, which is to say, he is a follower of Tony Blair. This involves not the setting-up of dividing lines, but a form of language that is “inclusive” — phrases to which nobody could possibly object."
He has brought big beasts in from the cold including the two contenders from the 1997 leadership contest. First to return was William Hague as Cameron's Shadow Foreign Secretary (and heir apparent if David Cameron was to fall under the proverbial bus) and Ken Clarke as his Shadow Business Secretary.
The Tory leader's willingness to use all the talents available to him was evident from the start of his leadership. From the traditional left of the party we saw John Gummer and Stephen Dorrell run the quality of life and public services policy groups. From the traditional right Cameron enlisted Iain Duncan Smith for the social justice policy group, John Redwood to examine economic competitiveness and Peter Lilley to look at global poverty.
Mr Cameron also wants to plant a portion of the big tent on the territory of the Liberal Democrats and New Labour. Orange Booker David Laws has been wooed and praise has been poured on to the head of schools reformer and now Transport Secretary Lord Adonis. Neither man or other targets have yet succumbed to Mr Cameron's charms but there's plenty of time for that to change.
One of the most important observations made about David Cameron's character was made by Quentin Letts in a recent Daily Mail sketch. Writing in the context of John Bercow's controversial election as Speaker, Letts concluded that Cameron is not one of life's haters:
"One of the Tories was David Cameron who wandered in early for a foreign policy statement and shook the Squeaker's hand with debonair charm. Mr Cameron is not one of life's haters. Plenty of his MPs think Mr Bercow is a sleazy traitor but the Tory leader prefers not to waste energy on such emotions. In this he is similar to Tony Blair, who worked out that hatred is a negative commodity which can only make life more complicated. Shrewd."
Shrewd indeed.
Cameron needs to do two things to remain a source of unity within the party:
80% of the time I ask a member of the Cameron operation a policy question I get a political answer. They are doing 'x' because that's where public opinion is. They are doing 'y' because it will wrongfoot Brown. They are pursuing 'z' because they don't want to upset a particular constituency of voters. Insiders talk of David Cameron's fascination with opinion polls.
This fascination has to be understood in the context of the last two decades. Excepting John Major's surprise victory in 1992 the Conservatives have been struggling in the opinion polls since 1988. William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard are the only modern day Tory leaders not to become Prime Minister. Tories have now been out of power for 12 years at a national level and some had wondered if the party would ever govern again. The electoral success of the Cameron machine is yet to face its ultimate test at the General Election but most grassroots Tories - members of the party often styled as the natural party of government - will forgive the political focus if Mr Cameron enters Downing Street next year.
The question is whether the political calculations that are necessary to end the electoral drought are largely tactical or have they entered into the DNA of the team that surrounds David Cameron? Has the party leadership become resigned to following public opinion, rather than leading it? Chief policy adviser to David Cameron Oliver Letwin - once referred to as the Gandalf of the leader's circle - is known to believe that opposition parties cannot change public opinion other than in one or two areas if they push very hard and in a very single-minded way. It is much easier to make great arguments in government.
There are two great forces in the Cameron project - the fascination with mastering public opinion and David Cameron's broad commitment to the whole conservative coalition. Only in government will we know which of those forces gets the upper hand.Much nonsense is written about David Cameron not being a true conservative. The Tory leader is subject to extraordinary attacks by some right-wing commentators, notably Simon Heffer and Peter Hitchens. On occasions Mr Cameron has given his doubters justifiable concerns. His support for still greater state funding of political parties (now abandoned), for example, and the dilution of meritocracy in candidate selection being prime examples.
The overwhelming evidence is, however, that David Cameron is comfortable with all of the great conservative traditions:
Over the last few years ConservativeHome has covered every aspect of the renaissance of the Conservative Party under David Cameron's leadership. In this special website we'll be bringing together that coverage in fifty brief posts. Over the next two months this ConHome section will provide a comprehensive guide to the key ideas that motivate the Cameron leadership, the major players within his team and the key priorities of the government that David Cameron hopes to lead after the next General Election.
Tim Montgomerie