80% of the time I ask a member of the Cameron operation a policy question I get a political answer. They are doing 'x' because that's where public opinion is. They are doing 'y' because it will wrongfoot Brown. They are pursuing 'z' because they don't want to upset a particular constituency of voters. Insiders talk of David Cameron's fascination with opinion polls.
This fascination has to be understood in the context of the last two decades. Excepting John Major's surprise victory in 1992 the Conservatives have been struggling in the opinion polls since 1988. William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard are the only modern day Tory leaders not to become Prime Minister. Tories have now been out of power for 12 years at a national level and some had wondered if the party would ever govern again. The electoral success of the Cameron machine is yet to face its ultimate test at the General Election but most grassroots Tories - members of the party often styled as the natural party of government - will forgive the political focus if Mr Cameron enters Downing Street next year.
The question is whether the political calculations that are necessary to end the electoral drought are largely tactical or have they entered into the DNA of the team that surrounds David Cameron? Has the party leadership become resigned to following public opinion, rather than leading it? Chief policy adviser to David Cameron Oliver Letwin - once referred to as the Gandalf of the leader's circle - is known to believe that opposition parties cannot change public opinion other than in one or two areas if they push very hard and in a very single-minded way. It is much easier to make great arguments in government.
Oliver Letwin may well believe "that opposition parties cannot change public opinion other than in one or two areas if they push very hard and in a very single-minded way".
However, the state of the nation is as dire as it was in 1979 and there are now very few people who genuinely believe that Brown is the right person - or that Labour is the right party - to get us out of the mess. A large majority of people are yearning for another party to take over and that party logically should be the conservatives.
However, too many conservatives doe not go along with Cameron's line on the EU (because that is where the bulk of our legislation comes from; we want to make our own laws). Many are not yet convinced that we have the ideas or the will to deal with the economic mess (though George Osborne made a lot of the right noises the other day).
The conservatives have a golden chance with their manifesto to bring all strands of conservative thinking together (and take over Ukip at the same time).
But DC must not follow, he must lead.
Posted by: David Belchamber | 09/21/2009 at 09:54 AM
The public are there to be persuaded, especially after 13 years fo Labour's latest attempt to deliver socialism on the never-never.
Blair opened a lot of doors to a change from the traditional split between public services for "the masses" with a few wealthy people escaping - and in some cases being positively encouraged to escape - in to the private health and education sectors. We should build on that and drive for equality of access and opportunity for the individual, with an ambivalence over who does the actual providing.
Where Blair went wrong, (and where our education voucher policy will, I believe, prove right), was to keep control of the decision over who did the providing within the state aparatus, rather than devolving real power - through funding - to the individual.
This is still redistributive. It takes the taxes of the "rich" to pay for the welfare of the "poor", but it empowers the poor rather than making them dependent on the service the great and good in Whitehall or Town Hall deign to provide.
Whether that is "red Toryism" or "Progressive Conservatism" I don't know, but it is what I joined the Conservative party to fight for and it is good to see the leadership buying in to this and rejecting the Heffer/Hitchins/Tombstone approach of simply going back to how it was before.
Posted by: John Moss | 09/21/2009 at 11:55 AM
Sadly, it would seem that these first two policies represent the sum total of David Cameron's achievements: -
1. Change the Tory image away from being regaded as the 'nasty party'
2. Be completely vague on policy in order to achieve 'big tent' consensus within the party.
I have to admit that both were essential, although (ironically) were only repairing damage caused by 'self-harming'. However both will evaporate if, as expected the Conservatives form the next government.
By its very nature the government of the day becomes unpopular when forced to take necessary but unpopular decisions e.g. raising tax and/or cutting services. In my opinion whoever forms the next government will be compelled to do both.
In addition, I believe that the diverse factions within the Tory party are only offering David Cameron conditional support on the understanding that he is: -
- pro / anti the EU
- pro / anti the hunting ban
- pro / anti the Afganistan / Iraq campaign
- pro / anti Grammar schools
- pro / anti reform of the NHS
... etc.
David Cameron has learned well from Tony Blair and will no doubt enter Downing Street with few if any tangible commitments. However he may also find that as soon as he starts to 'think the unthinkable' i.e. do something radical, that he has no real support for any policy he personally holds dear.
Posted by: Pete L | 09/21/2009 at 01:29 PM
I am not saying opinion polls are not useful - but we should not base entire election campaigns on them!
While winning an election with the help of favorable opinion polls is not unheard of, staying in power solely by means of adapting policies to whatever mood the electorate is in is first of all wrong and second, does not positively reflect on a politician who has been elected due to her or his true beliefs.
If we would accept the fact that a candidate or office holder viewpoints no longer matter once they are in contradiction with ten out of 40 opinion polls - would we not have lost out to populist movements instead of doing what a Conservative politician should do best - leading by example, including setting the agenda?
Let me paraphrase it, having had some experience with public funding and EU grants: you see a tender or open call and want to submit your proposal. Your ideas are good but do not really match the grant awarding authority's guidelines. You re-draft, edit,and re-draft some more. At the end of the day you may have a winning proposal but one that does not reflect on your abilities as you changed the contents of your proposal too many times. Even if you would win the tender you can not deliver - your expertise does not match the abilities as demanded by the grant awarding authority.
Listening to a multicultural, multi-dimensional society is what it takes to run modern Britain.
Changing tactics and changing policies and ultimately core contents on a daily basis as dictated by opinion polls is the wrong approach.
I want a future Conservative government not being swept into power because Labour failed miserably; we should win because our values, policies and ideas are simply better. Changing too often will make the electorate think twice before voting for us.
Posted by: Klaus Jurgens, Member Conservatives Abroad | 09/21/2009 at 03:14 PM
"Where Blair went wrong, (and where our education voucher policy will, I believe, prove right), was to keep control of the decision over who did the providing within the state aparatus, rather than devolving real power - through funding - to the individual."
The only issue I have with private companies running schools is that they will want to see a profit for minimal risk so naturally they will want to teach the 'good, polite' kids with the parents who care....
This of course means the leaving the LEA (ie the taxpayers) to have to spend the cash to teach the children that require the most investment given their behaviour or background....whilst also being the ones that are likely to acheive the least improvement.
In essence the private sector would cream off the 'nice-bits' (usually at a higher cost to the taxpayer than state provision) whilst the local taxpayers end up holding the bag full of s**t when it comes to having to deal with the very extensive cost of educating the not so decent pupils in more specialist facilities.
Of course, many conservatives’ motives for advocating educational reform are unrelated to the quality of education. Some see a very lucrative potential market for 'private education'.
Perhaps others want to use educational reform as a tactic for hobbling the teachers’ unions which tend tosupport more liberal politicians(see Miner 2004).
Of course by essentially cherry picking better students, the 'privately run' schools should be able to appear efficient, producing higher test scores at a cost below that of 'publicly-run' schools, which are left to serve the most expensive,
difficult children.
Unfortunately, even with their substantial advantages, the 'privately run' schools e.g. academies have not been able to fulfill even their limited promise of raising test scores at a price directly comparable to 'fully' public education.
Likewise with health reform. It may also be worth remembering that Private Medical Insurers (PMIs) exist for only one reason: to make money.
I may be cynical but over time I can see PMIs making the case to 'gradually' reduce the amount of public i.e low or no profit work they do leaving them to concentrate on easy high profit work (Private Eyes ad nauseam passim).
Each time that the PMIs make this case it would be for 'exceptional reasons'. Thus like most privatisations, the private sector would then bag the rewards whilst the taxpayer gets the s**t-end of the stick when it comes to the costs and risks....
And of course, it is highly likely the taxpayer will still have to underwrite the cost of covering really complex or long-term (thus expensive) care that the PMIs won't touch without the patient having massive insurance plans.
Comprehensive health insurance is very expensive.....especially if a family doesn't have that much cash to start with..........
When organisations such as schools and hospitals are inevitably failing to satisfy public demands for an all encompassing quality service at an acceptable cost (the key driver) it stikes me that the proponents of private education (and healthcare) are really getting started to play upon the growing dissatisfaction with public schools and healthcare.
In essence, and I'm being perhaps overly harsh, it stirkes me that certain sections of the Tory 'Broad Church' are claiming that
private systems will (not maybe but will) operate more efficiently.
I can see a scenario where DC under vast pressure to get costs down, starts to believe the proponents of privatised education who demand that the state distribute vouchers that subsidise private schools with state funds.
Even though these 'privately run' schools could then be free to refuse to work with students that require special education (on the grounds that it would disrupt the educational needs of the other pupils....the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few and all that).
In my opinion, to make matters worse, once education becomes 'privatised', not much time will pass before 'conservatives' will demand that public support go only to those who cannot afford to pay for school on
their own. Again it will be argued on the grounds of cost (as in healthcare 'reform').
By this means, it is possible (even higly likely) that public financial support for education becomes transformed into a form of welfare rather than a universal right. The key driver would be that of cost!!
And programs for the poor inevitably become poor programs.
A well-financed public outcry will almost certainly demand that hardworking taxpayers be absolved from having to pay for the education of families who are too 'lazy' to earn enough on their own.
Of course the above scenario wouldn't occur all in one go but rather in stages....bit like in the US really.
For all the talk of DCs belief in 'inclusion'...I get the feeling that there is still a heafty part of the Conservative Party (remaining silent as they can almost taste the power) that really does want to dismantle the state and let the 'market' decide regardless of the outcome or damage caused.
Posted by: Allan | 09/21/2009 at 06:57 PM
Being the husband of a teacher I am MASSIVELY concerned by the changes in education that the Conservatives are proposing. For that reason alon I will not be voting for them.
Posted by: Frank P | 05/05/2010 at 04:20 PM
I'm not the fan of David Cameroon, but above texts does make a sense.
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He is just not persuasive in my opinion. Then again the opposition is hardly inspiring much either! Lessor of known evils?
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David Cameron has learned well from Tony Blair and will no doubt enter Downing Street with few if any tangible commitments.
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