America may have become a 50/50 nation when it comes to presidential politics but most people still sit on the centre ground.
America is supposed to be a polarized nation and in many ways it is: Half of America lives in ‘red states’ that share George W Bush’s values – the other half live in ‘blue states’ that are liberal in outlook and voted for Al Gore or John Kerry.
If there is polarisation it has been fuelled by the growth of narrowcasting. Narrowcasting allows conservatives to tune out of the liberal old media and have their views validated and then toughened by a wide range of right-leaning radio stations, newspapers, webroots and, of course, Fox News (the conservative infrastructure).
Britain’s bookshops have been full of anti-Bush polemics – written by people like Al Franken, Michael Moore and Gore Vidal. Go into an American bookshop, however – particularly in a red state - and you’ll ALSO find stacks of pro-Bush, liberal-bashing and, yes, best-selling titles. Bill O’Reilly, Ann Coulter and Bernard Goldberg are some of the USA’s leading right-of-centre writers.
[British conservatives have been slow to take advantage of the new media and the suffocating dominance of the BBC continues to crowd out many opportunities to do so].
The importance of get-out-the-vote operations and American politics’ almost insatiable hunger for financial contributions has led many candidates to pay disproportionate attention to the concerns of America’s most energised voters. On the conservative side these energised voters are small town folk, gun owners, pro-lifers and big business interests. On the liberal side the Democrats pander to the usual rainbow coalition of interests, metropolitan America and John Edwards’ trial lawyer friends.
But are Americans as polarised as their political leaders?
Opponents of the polarisation thesis point to the election of Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger in liberal California and his muscular middle agenda. Politicians with the muscle to reject their party’s special interests continue to succeed in unlikely places. George Pataki, standing for the Republicans, has been re-elected in liberal New York and a handful of conservative Democrats have prospered in some parts of America’s Republican South.
‘The margins of the national debate are dominated by energised and noisy groups but most Americans prefer a quieter, more practical politics’ - argue observers like Morris Fiorina.
If Britain is to avoid American-style polarisation tendencies it needs to look at how low-turnout elections and parties’ money problems increase the power of entryist groups within constituency association selectorates.
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