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Yours is a celevr way of thinking about it.


This was an interesting post. What you are describing in the first bit are positive feedback loops — in other words, the sign of the signal being fed back to the input is the same as the sign of the input. (This is what makes PA systems howl.) Any system with (overall) positive feedback is inherently unstable; there will (almost) always be some condition that makes the loop gain >1 resulting in a runaway situation. The fact that adaptive humans are involved makes this pretty much a certainty.“The other explanation for this effect is that young people save a lot…”I suspect the evidence is against this explanation.BTW, Larry Kotlikoff is selling a personal finance modelling tool that is heavily oriented toward consumption smoothing. I bought a copy a few years ago to play with, but I didn’t pay the annual sub so I don’t know what the updated version is like. However, the one I had suffered from a lack of transparency in the results (I had a hard time interpreting what it was telling me) and an inability to readily model certain scenarios (for example, getting at the safe withdrawal rate given one’s initial retirement account balance and investment choices).


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1. There are 2 important froacts re integration with Europe or de-integration with it.a) Do you want further integration at all;b) do you want it in the coming period and/or is it wise to take those steps.2. Whatever your answer is on a), the answer on b)is you have to stay away from it for the coming years at least. Mainly for 2 reasons:a)it is in a mess and all measures taken are mainly kicking the can and furthermore very expensive.b) any solution is doubtful to work in practice (like the fiscal compact) and an experiment of which the outcome is highly uncertain. We see with eg Greece that there is no free Euro lunch.You can be made to pay for other peoples mistakes and to make it worse those other people are countries like Greece and Italy which have proven themselves very unreliable partners.So it is not only a technical experiment but also a membership experiment (being in one club with unreliable and unnatural partners).Another point is the EZ is likely to turn into a low/no growth zone. Its South is not much further than say China only with 10X higher wages. Before that is adressed decades will pass. Either build out sectors that are worldclass or get much cheaper (much lower wages (and other costs) and/or much lower taxes).Its North also with a pricing problem will have to use it surplusses to finance the economic disaster the South is and reduce together with the aging effect overall growth to close to zero.The problem likely will be adressed sometime but as we see in the PIIGS that will take ages. 3. So whatever your views are longer term on the shorter term it is plainly stupid to join that club.While the advantages are marginal, being able to have your own monetary policy is very helpful for the UK as it is having a national financial legislation iso a mainly 'social democratic' one, that will likely make a large part of your financial sector move elsewhere.4. What are the advantages of the EZ:-trade;-global player in international politics.5. Re trade that is mainly:-free trade;-same standards.6. To start with the last part that isnot really working properly.The basic idea is good, but in practice unnecessarily rules are made up that simply make goods more expensive to produce, with no proper reason.7. Free trade is the main advantage.8. World player. Europe is nowhere near that. Having a clown for its foreign policy doesnot help, but indicates that there is a long way to go.9. Anyway usually it is France, Germany and the UK who discuss things and act. And basically the UK is the strongest party in that and the only one that can do realistically something military abroad.Anyway you need the US basically for everything and Belgium and Slovakia to name a few are hardly relevant.10. Also from a political point of view the EZ/EU simply doesnot look stable. It politicians might be in agreement. But it is a decade or longer project; high on the (voters') agenda; populist parties rising in polls; huge conflicts of interest anyway; several elections during that process.Which means that it is likely that something might happen. In which countries? When? We donot know yet, maybe even all goes well.However in general a substantial chance of problems only from which angle is hard to predict.11. Also from that respect further integration is not a good strategic move.12. So in my view membership in the EU looks benificial at least for the free-trade part. For the rest a reneg is likely the most benificial. Get as much as possible un-economical and expensive measures out. Via which way is imho less relevant.13. Looking at what the UK's population wants. It will be something like that as well.As a member if it is possible, like a new Norway or Switzerland if it must.14. In this respect getting closer ties with main players Russia and Turkey could be helpful. Especially re the standards part. Together with the UK these form enough markets to make some demands realistically in that respect.

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Articles like these put the consumer in the driver seat-very important.

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