The dangerous tendency of insulated groups to make bad decisions.
The idea of groupthink was devised by psychologist Irving Janis in 1972. It describes how certain groups of otherwise intelligent and well-meaning people can make bad – even disastrous - decisions. Janis suggests that bad decisions often result from an overriding desire for unanimity within an extremely goals-driven, and perhaps time-constrained, group.
Groups most vulnerable to ‘groupthinking’ tend to be of similar social background or worldview. They will probably be insulated from alternative viewpoints and may be directed by a strong leader.
In such groups self-censorship may result. Group members may be so committed to the rightness – and specialness – of the group that they don’t offer criticism for fear of offending – or being rejected by - team members. Avoiding any disapproval from other group members becomes more important than being right.
Already successful groups can be particularly susceptible to groupthink. An illusion of invulnerability can evolve. ‘We were right then and we are right now’ becomes the dominant attitude. External critics are disdained and the group develops a bunker mentality whenever criticisms are made. Some see this very pattern in the development of the Thatcher governments. The early Thatcher administrations secured extraordinary advances and often in the teeth of implacable opposition. This caused the Thatcher governments to become insensitive to wiser criticisms that came later. Mrs Thatcher was known to ask if people were ‘One Of Us’. If they were not their opinion wasn't treated so seriously.
Groupthink after September 11th
The US Senate’s inquiry into weapons of mass destruction and Iraq found that groupthink explained many of the intelligence community’s failures. It concluded:
"The Intelligence Community (IC) suffered from a collective presumption that Iraq had an active and growing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program. This "group think" dynamic led Intelligence Community analysts, collectors, and managers, to both interpret ambiguous evidence as conclusively indicative of a WMD program as well as ignore or minimize evidence that Iraq did not have active and expanding weapons of mass destruction programs. This presumption was so strong that formalized IC mechanisms established to challenge assumptions and group think were not utilized.”
Groupthink can occur in a whole variety of political, business and cultural settings. Movie critic David Sterritt has described how his peers end up writing very similar reviews for different media platforms. He suggests that the similarities might reflect common socioeconomic backgrounds and age. Just as likely is a shared worldview. Film critics like James Bowman and Michael Medved, that shun American Beauty, Fahrenheit 9/11 and other films loved by establishment critics are then shunned themselves. Sterritt made a resolution to challenge his fellow critics more and this role of ‘devil’s advocate’ is a powerful antidote to groupthink.
Solutions to groupthink
In addition to the appointment of a devil’s advocate, groups should regularly spend time studying criticism from outsiders. Group members should take turns to make the case for what can be learnt from outsiders. External experts should be regularly invited to address the group and care should be taken to ensure basic procedures are followed. Basic procedures might include risk assessment, contingency planning and verification of all essential information sources.
When these rules are followed the benefits of mass intelligence can be realised.
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