The once compelling idea that economics determines election results is no longer so compelling.
‘It’s the economy, stupid’ was the top political catchphrase of the 1990s. It was coined by James Carville – Bill Clinton’s strategist during 1992’s presidential contest. President George Bush (Senior) had enjoyed 80%+ approval ratings after he had led the liberation of Kuwait but his presidency was sunk because of the deep recession that occurred on his watch.
In the same year John Major clung on to office because he persuaded Britain’s voters that the Conservatives were more likely to lead the country out of recession than Neil Kinnock’s Labour Party.
Both the Clinton and Major victories were rooted in voters’ judgment of who would best advance their economic interests. ‘Economic determinism’ is one of electoral theory’s most compelling ideas but in recent years it has been severely tested.
Major and Gore both lost despite strong economies
By 1997 Britain had a very strong economy and John Major chose 'Britain Is Booming. Don’t Let Labour Wreck It.' as his campaign slogan. But the strongest economy in Europe wasn’t enough to keep Mr Major in Downing Street. In 2000 Al Gore – the Vice-President of an administration that had presided over America’s longest period of economic growth – was beaten by Governor George W Bush.
Delivering economic success doesn’t appear to satisfy today’s more prosperous voters. Britain’s prosperous middle classes deserted John Major because they felt that his party was sleazy and uninterested in social justice. George W Bush was able to emphasise compassionate conservatism and values issues on his road to victory. This positive and compassionate alternative was more important in defeating Al Gore than revulsion at Bill Clinton’s sexual encounter with Monica Lewinsky. After all, the Lewinsky affair didn’t stop Clinton gaining Congressional seats in 1998’s mid-term elections.
But John Howard and Tony Blair still ride the economic waves
Economic competence remains a powerful force. Australia’s strong economy insulated John Howard from his controversial Iraq policy and saw him elected for a historic fourth term. A robust economic record has so far cushioned Tony Blair from his poor record on public services and crime. But increasing voters’ income is no longer enough when the middle classes feel that they can afford 'luxury policies' on the environment, poverty reduction and other quality of life issues.
Comments