By Andrew Gimson
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Reshuffle speculation is almost always wrong. But one can already see with some clarity two of the tests by which David Cameron’s next rearrangement of his team will be judged. Oceans of ink will be devoted to the essentially tiresome question of how many women he has promoted, while more subtle observers will wish to see whether the Whips’ Office has regained its traditional role as a training ground for ministerial office.
It happens that two junior whips, Nicky Morgan and Karen Bradley, are among the women tipped for promotion. So watching what, if anything, happens to them, will be one way of gauging the character of the reshuffle.But before the two women, a word about the two tests. In April 2009, Mr Cameron allowed himself to say, with the expansiveness that comes so easily to a Leader of the Opposition: “If elected, by the end of our first Parliament I want a third of all my ministers to be female.” The time has surely come to announce that he has ditched this aspiration, and not just because of his unselfconsciously arrogant use of the word “my” to refer to what are actually the Queen’s ministers.