commentators

Ferdinand Mount: The Tories and LibDems Have Become Natural Allies

In yesterday's Telegraph, Ferdinand Mount wrote that "the old abysses separating the Conservatives from the Liberal Democrats have narrowed or virtually disappeared".  He suggested that a "fresh axis" might establish itself, between the two parties.

Mr Mount noted recent parliamentary Tory/LibDem co-belligerence against the 90-day detention plan and, just last week, against Labour's amnesty for on-the-run IRA terrorists.  He also stressed both parties' interest in localism.

Mr Mount ends his piece by suggesting that a blue-yellow coalition after the next General Election might present a better option to the LibDems than "the alternative of propping up an exhausted and discredited Labour administration".

Listed below is my back of the envelope summary of where the parties are coming together - and where there are still big differences...

Where the Tories are moving towards the LibDems:

• On Kyoto where Oliver Letwin is co-operating with LibDem Norman Smith.
• On civil liberties where David Davis has been at one with LibDems on such issues as detention without trial.
• Cannabis where David Cameron's more liberal position is close to that of Charles Kennedy.

Where the LibDems are moving towards the Tories:

• Europe.  The Orange Book Liberals (Oaten, Cable, Webb, Laws etc) are pushing the party to a more "realistic" position following the problems of the eurozone and the French/Dutch rejection of the Constitution.
• On tax the LibDems have refined their policies and are now suggesting that the overall tax burden should (probably) not rise overall.

Where there are still big gaps:

• The Iraq war.
• Attitudes to marriage and the family where the Liberals remain wedded to the ideas of sixties socialism.

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Norman Baker and Oliver Letwin: The environment should not be exploited for political gain

Labour might lose their majority at the next election but it’s going to be difficult for the Conservatives to gain a majority of their own unless they (we) can start winning a lot of the seats currently held by the Liberal Democrats.  If Romsey, Winchester, Teignbridge, Twickenham and similar seats stay in the yellow column a Conservative majority looks almost impossible to attain.

Conservatives must face the real possibility that a Liberal Democrat parliamentary grouping – even one that is smaller than today’s - will deny the Conservatives a majority.  Very few Conservatives have faced up to this electoral reality.  [Francis Maude being an honourable exception].

If Conservatives cannot be sure of defeating the Liberal Democrats we need to consider forms of co-operation.  The Lib-Con environment pact - announced on Wednesday - may be the first real sign that such considerations are gathering strength.

LibDem Norman Baker and Tory Oliver Letwin wrote a joint article for Wednesday’s Independent expressing concern that climate change is “now kicking in at a rate even worse than scientists had previously thought.”  The joint article recommended “year-on-year carbon reduction requirements, an annual report to Parliament on progress, and independent verification of that progress.”  A leader in The Indy warmly welcomed the two politicians’ accord and urged a foot-dragging Margaret Beckett to sign up, too.

Mr Letwin’s willingness to work with Liberal Democrats is not new.  When he was Shadow Home Secretary Mr Letwin worked with Simon Hughes, then his LibDem equivalent, on opposing Labour’s first attempt to outlaw ‘incitement to religious hatred’.  Opponents of Lib-Con deal-making often complain that it can make LibDems appear more reasonable to voters and therefore undermine Tory campaigning in Lib-Con marginals.  That complaint is hard to direct at Oliver Letwin who has twice defied near death political experiences with LibDems in his Dorset constituency.  Mr Letwin is a key lieutenant of David Cameron and this deal may be a tester for much greater co-operation with LibDems on ‘Orange Book issues’.  I think of pensions, post office privatisation and NHS reform.

In principle I think the Letwin initiative is welcome and brave.  In practice I’m not encouraged.  The APPCD’s technology-led approach to addressing environmental problems seems much more likely to attract the support of developing economies than the regulatory-led approach of Kyoto.  Britain might be able to cut its own greenhouse gas emissions on the scale desired by Baker-Letwin - but only by exporting manufacturing facilities to environmentally unregulated China, India and other fast-growing economies never covered by Kyoto.  The Baker-Letwin article does not even hint at an understanding of Kyoto’s weaknesses (recently acknowledged by Tony Blair).  LibDem-Connery needs to have a future – but it must be more hard-headed than this.