Stephan Shakespeare: The Conservatives must convince voters that they'll make their lives better

I am often asked how hard and fast is the rule that an opposition needs to have a clear lead before entering an election campaign – maybe 5% to 10% - in order to have a good chance of winning. That is, I used to be asked that question often. Obviously with a 7% to 11% poll lead for the government, it seems somewhat less pertinent.

But it’s still worth answering, and the answer sheds light on the current situation for the Conservatives.

Clearly the reversion to the government in an election is not a ‘rule’ at all; anything can happen in politics at any time; but there is a good reason for using it as a default assumption. It’s well grounded in the psychology that applies to polling.

If you are asked “Who will you vote for?”, and you are not a committed supporter of any party, then a degree of game-playing is bound to enter into one’s motivations when answering the question. Governments tend not to be popular. They impose themselves on us in ways that we don’t always like. So when asked the question by pollsters, people are often tempted to use the opportunity to send a message of dissatisfaction to the governing party. Remember the petrol crisis of 2000, when William Hague scored a temporary lead over Blair? Respondents at those polls weren’t seriously saying they now wanted a Hague government, merely that they hated the government’s latest move and wanted to register a protest.