Louise Bagshawe: Blue is the Colour

Louise Bagshawe reflects on her sheer pride at being a Conservative.

Quick, somebody call the RSPCA! There’s been an accident in Downing Street. A lame duck has been spotted limping across the road…

Well, a week is a long time in politics, isn’t it? Last Wednesday I had to call Tim and beg off my column; I wasn’t sure if I’d ever get to write another. I cancelled three days in Blackpool, incurring a hefty pre-paid hotel charge, in favour of preparation for a snap GE. Plenty of candidate friends did the same. The polls were telling us that Labour had double digit leads. The blogs were full of Labour supporters crowing merrily. The media could hardly contain their glee. The Sun told us David Cameron had “three days to save the Tories”. “MISSION IMPOSSIBLE”, they said.

Friends will bear me witness that I never quite believed those bad polls. They just did not jibe with the feeling on the ground. Labour has failed so comprehensively in Northants. I was knocking up and leafleting with our excellent candidate for Lloyds ward in Corby, Lynn Wilson, and we did not detect any surge of enthusiasm for Brown in this ultra-safe Labour bastion. But still, polls are polls, and whatever Brown chooses to tell the Lobby, all politicians take note of them. I cancelled Blackpool. I could not justify three days in the Imperial Hotel talking to friends and enjoying myself at fringe meetings when we could get campaigning done.

Despite the ugly national mood, our councillors, activists and association officials were up for a fight. With help from Leicester CF (thank you Ben and Simon) and local Tories, we delivered 20,000 plus leaflets across the constituency. They would not have counted in election expenses. I was and am so grateful for all the assistance we received. Activists young and old, elected and unelected, gave up their free time and stayed late after work to get the leaflets out. Literature was designed, printers were primed, the campaign team was ready to go. I could not believe the response. And this was against a backdrop of polls and reporting saying we stood no chance. Somehow, that message had not got through to the Tory team in this marginal.

Then we had a series of triumphs that changed the picture completely. Firstly there was a night of exceptional Tory success in by-elections across the country from Dover to Sunderland, going completely against the national polling picture. In Corby we had a 3% Lab-Con swing, double that needed to take the seat, and Lab dropped almost 9%. (Enjoyable aside: I read on a blog somewhere that Labour in Washington, Sunderland, had flown in a Democratic politician from Washington DC and pinned a red rosette on him to watch their candidate, erm, “triumph”. And that Downing St rang in for the result!). Next, the Conservative conference started with a rousing speech from Hague on Brown’s daring to compare himself with Thatcher, improved with Osborne on IHT and stamp duty and David Davis on welfare reform, reached an emotional crescendo with IDS’s huge ovation for his embodiment of compassionate Conservatism, and ended with David Cameron’s bravura performance. In the middle our new best friend, G. Brown esq., did his bit for Tory ratings by blatantly playing politics with our servicemen’s lives. The polls reacted; Labour was dropping, day by day. Now the racing certainty became a will he, won’t he. And the final coup de grace was ICM’s poll in the marginals, of which Corby & East Northants was one. A 6% Tory lead. They would have been polling households here that had just received hand-delivered Tory literature.

Of course, we Conservatives cannot take all the credit. Brown’s own love of spin, his calculation politician stunt in Iraq, and his most un-Thatcher-like cowardice in bottling an election without a guaranteed win, had something to do with the events of Yellow Saturday. 

Nevertheless, we ought to take pride in what we accomplished as a party; in what we can do, when we unite. From the leader’s brave and heartfelt speech, which garnished a double page spread in the Sun (“Job Done” “Mission Very Possible”) and had even the Guardian calling it “fluent” and “virtuoso”, to the Shadow Cabinet’s bold policymaking on tax and immigration. From the discipline and silence of former dissident MPs, one in the eye for the media who were trying to tempt them, to the determination of the activists, councillors and candidates across the country who started the election long before the starting gun was ever fired: we have shown the country, and ourselves, what we can achieve when we unite. 

We have contributed to Brown’s “Ratner moment” – one week when he totally trashed the careful image he’s built up over ten years, and showed the nation he’s a spinning (Iraq), bottling (Andrew Marr), bogus (“the polls had nothing to do with it”) bog-standard new Labour apparatchik. The “big tent” folded up and blew tumbling over the moors at the first whiff of a breeze. COURAGE, by Gordon Brown? What’s next? FEMINISM, by John Prescott? 

Now we have until 2009. No complacency. No let up. I will be campaigning on local issues. I know my PPC colleagues will do the same. We will continue to work. But there is a renewed confidence and optimism that the time for change has come. Peter Riddell wrote that he had never experienced such a change in the polls in so short a time. The Conservatives are prepared for battle, whenever it comes. In however small a way, I am proud to be a part of our team.

Comments

[Praguetory]

Welcome back, Louise. As you rightly suggest, the events of the last fortnight show Brown to be more than just a bottler.

[Griswold]

Well done Louise on your decision to wear your shoes out walking the streets rather than spending a v pleasant and invigorating few days at Blackpool. Winning the seat is 90% perspiration and this is down to you and your team. Cameron and co can provide some pull but the push is down to you. Keep going.

[Rachel Joyce]

Excellent article. I agree the feeling on the ground never really matched the polls. And yes - we PPCs are working hard, building up the momentum on the ground.

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown messed about the whole country with his electoral flirting. David Cameron's anger was more than apparaent. Brown got the lashing he deserved at PMQs. Louise your grass-roots political approach is inspiring. As you say Labour has failed so many people with their top-down style of government by directive. Keep up the good work Louise.

[James Burdett]

I wondered where you had got to last week, and have to say I did miss it. However it is very heartening to know where your priorities lie! I am sure the hard work will pay dividends.

[Malcolm Dunn]

Louise, hear,hear!

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper]

I may not agree with you politically but I admire your dedication to our democracy. Thank you.

[Louise Bagshawe]

Thanks all very much. Mr. Mayhew, I enjoy many of your comments and share your ardent Euroscepticism. I very much hope you will choose to rejoin the party. We need former members like yourself (and Chad Noble) back with us to defeat Labour.

I will be a guest on the BBC's "Politics Show" on Sunday talking about Labour abuse of its taxpayer-funded "communications allowance" for sheer electioneering.

[Baskerville]

Henry, aren't you slightly tempted to come back to us now? Go on, you know it makes sense.

[Joe Mooney]

Excellent article Louise. I think most of the country is now fed up with the grand old juke of Gordon.

He is insincere and a bit of a smart alec. He is in fact all spin and as Mr Cameron said he is a fake and a phoney.

Gordon Brown is not a leader and I am pleased that a lot of people are now coming around to that view.

Well done to David Cameron and his team for all the good work they are doing reference bringing this Government to account.

Looking to the future I am now convinced that we can win the next election. However, we must continue to work together as a team and keep knocking on those doors between now and 2009.

[Tony Makara]

One has to question the leadership qualities of Gordon Brown in stepping back and allowing Tony Blair to take over the Labour party. A true leader would not so readily have played second fiddle. True leaders don't allow themselves to be usurped. Before long it will become apparent to Labour's young guns that Gordon Brown isn't the best bet for a bright new future.

[top of the shot]

Louise is right about the use of MPs communications allowence. Lynne Featherstone who toppled Labour last time in Hornsey and Wood Green delivered a Westminster Report leaflet - with no imprint ! last Saturday - and not to be outdone, Labour we also out delivering their "intro" leaflet throughout the constituency.

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper]

I am tempted but I still love Nigel and wouldn't want to do anything to hurt him. Why can't we all just be friends?

[Chad Noble]

And I love Henry.

Anyone who can cycle home after five pints deserves love ;-)

[activist]

Easy! Get him to rejoin as well :) the Tories are at their most sceptical since Maggie, don't help Labour to beat them.

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper]

Chad, you are a drunkard. They won't have you back.

[Editor]

Thank you Henry. Thank you Chad. Enough now.

:-)

[Chad Noble]

"They won't have you back."

The pub? At least I wasn't as badly behaved as the last time I was out with Mark Wallace... ;-)

Seriously though, like Henry, loyalty to Nigel would stop my joining another political party too but that doesn't mean we can't all get along.

[Henry Mayhew - Ukipper]

You are correct Chad (once again). Although I will take a lot of convincing about Dave, due to his past record, I have been greatly impressed and surprised by the Tory focus on the referendum, and the Gordonian blood in the water. Good stuff which I fully support and am trying to assist.

But where is the logical conclusion that if the other countries of Europe want to surrender their democratic freedoms we should have no part of their 'ever closer union', opt-outs or not? The idea of elevating an unchangeable bureaucracy to dominance over the continent runs counter to our successful policy over the last few hundred years, and to common sense. Were the people who led Britain from 1648 to 1914 wrong? Is Neil Kinnock right? Should Brussels be the centre of the continent?

The whole thing is absurd, dangerous, and Conservative Party policy; so no, I won't be rejoining for now, this is rather too important an issue to agree to disagree about. But Ms Bagshawe - I think you're very sweet and I wish you the best. Good articles too.