Louise Bagshawe: Brown's bad news

Louise Bagshawe gazes into her crystal ball and forecasts trouble for the PM...

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t. That’s the dilemma for Gordon Brown as he considers whether to go for an autumn election. After eighteen months of seriously bad press for the Labour party, our left-leaning media are dizzy with joy at having a different story to tell – a shiny new Labour PM, Blair’s unpopularity eliminated, and, against the predictions of the pre-succession polls, a honeymoon bounce for Gordon. Now the commentators are thrilling to the thought of a snap General Election. Feed the numbers for the latest YouGov poll into Electoral Calculus, and Labour actually increases its majority – significantly.

Maybe Conservative relief at getting rid of Teflon Tony with his sure electoral touch was misplaced. Maybe Gordon Brown, hitherto thought of as a liability (including by Cabinet colleagues) could actually match his feat and march Labour into an historic fourth term with an even larger majority than today.

And then again – maybe not.

I think of what’s coming down the pipe for Gordon Brown, and none of it looks good. More of that in a second. So should he go early? After all, a non-domiciled expat has just promised to solve Labour’s money problem. The polls offer him hope. Who dares wins, eh?

But there are major troubles with the idea of an early poll. A friendly Guardian article, earlier this week, warned Brown against it. Electorates historically do not enjoy mid-term elections, and punish the men who call them. The last ICM poll asked who wanted an election this year, and 70% were against – of those, most were Labour voters. Gordon Brown, a keen student of politics, knows this full well. Labour is not organisationally ready – selections in key seats like Burton (where, based on outstanding local election results, they have scant chance of beating our outstanding PPC Andrew Griffiths anyway) are proceeding at a snail’s pace. They are broke – despite the promises, could enough cash be raised in time? And lastly, the internals of the polls, as pored over at politicalbetting.com this week by Mike Smithson, show the Tories are still net gainers over 2005 and Labour net losers.

Add to this unpromising stew the inevitable recovery of the LibDems from improbable national lows, the prospect of going head to head with David Cameron over an election campaign, the certainty of having to share the media spotlight with the opposition, and you do not get an appetising reason to risk a comfortable majority for an almost certainly much reduced one.

Brown could be one of our shortest serving Prime Ministers ever. He has not, it is rumoured, many true political friends, even in his own party. Would they forgive his throwing away a majority of 66? After reducing Labour either to a hung parliament or an unworkable majority, Brown would not survive a leadership challenge from David Miliband. No, an autumn election does not seem to me at all probable, however much I would welcome one.

Well then – Brown should wait. Shouldn’t he?

Not so fast. If it doesn’t look good for October, it looks, in my view, even worse for the months and years after that. Let’s examine some of Brown’s bad news:

The credit crisis and mortgage rates: Even after central banks stepped in several times to inject liquidity into banking systems and ease credit fears, stock markets are still heading downwards. This month’s welcome fall in inflation to 1.9% is unlikely to be sustained; food prices may well increase post the floods. It is quite possible that mortgage rates may reach 7% by Christmas. Certainly many analysts expect further rises in the medium term. And many homeowners who fixed their mortgages two years ago will experience a decent amount of pain, for which they are likely to blame the Government.

The end of his media monopoly: What was bad news for the country was good political news for Brown – events conspired to allow him to look good on TV as he called endless press conferences. Our country’s character means it is natural for us to rally to the leader in times of crisis. Without the floods, foot and mouth, and trips to Washington on the agenda, Brown will have to step back from the comfort of promoting his latest COBRA meeting and deal with the mundane, day to day mess Labour has made of the country – and his ratings will almost certainly fall.

Scotland: Labour is suffering tremendously at the hands of the SNP. A Holyrood poll taken recently gave the amazing figures of 48% SNP to 32% Labour. Polling wonks cite all kinds of caveats here, the main one being that it wasn’t a GE poll, and that based on 2005 figures, the SNP do not threaten Labour in Scotland. I am not so sure. Firstly, the SNP have moved on from 2005 and are almost a new party, a new force. Secondly, Alex Salmond is provoking a debate on what Scots should enjoy – full independence or more devolution. It may be that some left-leaning Scots will now vote SNP rather than Labour at national level in order that their MPs can push for more devolution in Westminster - even though the SNP cannot form a UK government.  But outside of Scotland Gordon’s SNP problem impacts on him in other, more important ways. He does not want to fight an election where the focus is on Scottish devolution, and his total refusal to grant the English what the Scots presently enjoy. And if the Scots say they want still more powers reserved to Holyrood? By arguing for the status quo, Gordon risks offending both his Scottish base and the majority English voters - whom David Cameron will be delighted to champion with English votes for English laws, which a cornered Brown has turned down flat.

Brown’s NHS Cuts – the sequel: One of  our most successful issue campaigns last year was the petition against Brown’s NHS cuts. As reported on ToryDiary yesterday, David Cameron wants to make this a key plank of our GE strategy. Labour have messed up the public finances so much that record investment in the NHS is now leading to closures of A&E and maternity units. District hospitals are under threat. NHS dentists are like hen’s teeth. Years of overspend and waste by Brown means there’s now no more cash. We’ve already seen Hazel Blears, then Chairman of the Labour party,  desperately campaigning against her government in her own constituency to try to save her local hospital. There’s going to be much, much more of that.

I just gave birth, in my local NHS hospital, where the maternity unit is under threat. It’s proposed that we should have a glossy “supercenter” in Eastbourne. Let me say that only a man could have dreamt up this brilliant idea. Babies don’t always hang around. The mums to be of the UK won’t be looking forward to giving birth in the back of a car stuck in a traffic jam. With my third baby,  after a short while of not much happening, I went from nothing to seven centimetres dilated in ten minutes exactly. I shudder to think of the anaesthetic free experience I would have had if I’d had to travel many miles from my home town!

Spending squeeze: This relates to the NHS item above, but the NHS is electorally important enough to warrant its own ‘bad news’ headline. However, the cash crunch that will lead to shutting local hospitals is not restricted to the NHS. It will apply across the board in all departments. There is no more money. Look for libraries, youth facilities, therapies, sports provision, Uncle Tom Cobbley and all to be affected. Brown has been an expert at sweeping economic bad news under the rug – he is the king of stealth taxes, for example. But the situation is now so bad that everybody will notice. “Labour cuts your services” will be good to campaign on, because it will be true.

The EU Constitution: Like the Scottish problem, this is not going away. It is the one issue where the Sun, the Mail and the Telegraph are firmly behind David Cameron. Gordon has pinned his colours (blue, with a ring of gold stars) too firmly to the mast on this one. If he gives in, he will be, and look, weak. If he doesn’t, he risks the wrath of his allies in the press. As with the West Lothian Question, Gordon is on the wrong side of the argument, against the established consensus of the British people, and he knows it.

Labour's lawless Britain: The news this week that a father of three was beaten to death as he confronted teenage louts who were smashing his car window was the latest tragedy in a string of revolting incidents. Every other week a teenager gets stabbed to death in London in broad daylight. There is a growing sense of our country under siege. Labour’s lax sentencing guidelines and police target culture have led to situations where a handful of policemen may be on beat duty to serve one major town. Labour have brought in ineffective ASBOs and “community sentences”, early releases -  and 24 hour drinking. The public is fed up.

Immigration: I firmly believe that immigrants have brought great benefits to our country. Indeed, I’m married to an immigrant. However, if we are to preserve an affordable welfare state and to have social cohesion, immigration must be properly managed. Under Labour, it’s not. Even the BBC conceded that Brown stole a Tory policy when he announced a new border force – but closer examination revealed that, like his budget, it wasn’t what it seemed to be. Immigration will be a major issue in this election, simply because Labour have admitted millions since the last election with their supine attitude to EU regulations. Whilst previously even to mention the issue caused the left to gnash their teeth about right-wing dinosaurs, that attitude is no longer credible. David Cameron, with his strong emphasis on social justice and compassionate Conservatism, is exactly the right man to make the case for tighter, and yes, for less, immigration. Labour have a case to answer on the chaos over which they have presided. We will hold them to account.

Education – and general Labour decline: Having written about this in my last column, I don’t want to go over old ground – but since that was penned, another report has come out showing that the problems are now spreading to the first years of secondary school. The media is, very slowly, starting to wake up to the fact that the government who promised us “education, education, education” is churning out a generation that is illiterate and innumerate. This week the CBI called for students to be bribed with a thousand pounds to study the sciences. It would be funny, were it not so sad. 

What applies to education applies to pensioners, to planning issues, to Iraq, to agriculture – to every area of government. Omni-challenged Labour has comprehensively failed. And Gordon Brown will not be able to posture over national crises for much longer. He will have to deal with everything listed above, plus the inevitable drip-drip-drip of bad news that comes when you run a bad government. Pensioners betrayed by abusive care home staff? No pupils studying the sciences? Another child stabbed to death? Teenage gangs able to vandalise at will? European leaders publicly crowing over how the Brits have been hoodwinked? The specific stories may change, but the thrust will not. Labour isn’t working. And the electorate will know it – whenever Brown goes to the polls.

On yesterday's Platform Alan Duncan MP analysed some of 'Gordon's many failures'.

Comments

[GS]

Good analysis. So let's get the Tory spokesmen and women out and about in the media telling the world what they think about these subjects and what they're going to do about them.

[SpudHead]

So Cameron's head cheerleader sees a lot of problems, but how are the tories going to solve these problems? It's one thing to get people to be anti-Labour, but so far Louise, after weeks of your articles, I've yet to find a reason to vote FOR your tories.

[Serf]

Louise

I agree with your analysis on every single issue. I have just one problem. How does a man with this level of incompetence lead us in the polls?

Before anyone blames David Cameron, Gordon Brown is so bad, that the Devil himself should be able to win an election against him. Yet otherwise intelligent people, accept Gordon's lies and spin as gospel.

[Annabel Herriott]

And there is now a knife proofing available to be fitted inside SCHOOL BLAZERS!!!!!
That says it all.

[The Huntsman]

Louise is right to focus, in part, upon the situation in Scotland which we neglect at our peril if trying to understand Brown's mind.

The SNP is on a roll at the moment and that roll shows no sign of coming to an end just yet. Indeed it is possible to begin to ask the question: has there been a permanent seismic shift in Scottish politics?

Whatever the answer to that question is and whatever the good auguries are south of the border, Scotland presents a political maelstrom at the moment. GB may be about to hand-pick the next Crony Labour Leader in Scotland, but faces a possible meltdown in Labour seats in favour of the SNP.

To be a Scots Labour MP is to have some certainty of preferment unless you are a true maverick or serial refusenik. No fewer than four Scots MPs are members of the Cabinet (Brown, Darling, Browne, Alexander), seven are members of the government outside the Cabinet, four act as Parliamentary Private Secretaries (and so are being groomed for possible government membership) four chair Common’s committees and finally another fourteen are members of committees. So with eleven government members plus twenty two others who are on committees, no less than 33 of Labour’s forty Scottish MPs are part of the frontline.

These people are not going to let GB risk an election where many of them on the current figures might be swept not just from office but also from Parliament.

In addition is GB going to want to go into an election fighting against two referenda at once? This is particularly so in Scotland where the SNP are making the running (and so control the agenda) and Labour are constantly having to play 'catch-up'. Instead of fighting the election on the grounds of the economy, the NHS, education and all those nice safe Labour comfort foods, he will find himself in what would almost certainly he a highly charged cat & dog fight over independence which might in time begin to dominate UK National politics as well, where there is also a referendum issue.

Remember also that GB has a yellow streak in him (witness the failed coup against Vanity Blair). Given these uncertainties does he have the guts to cut and run only two years (of a possible five) into a Parliament? And given this statistic the public may well ask why, noting his continuing majority in the Commons, we are being put to the expense and inconvenience of a GE so soon.

For all its size Scotland is a major factor in our politics at this very moment.

On a slightly different note, it must be assumed that Des Browne is giving a lot of his time to his Scottish part-time job. Given that he is also supposed to be running two of Blair's wars, one of which is seeing one of the highest casualty rates since the spring of 1945, ought the party now to be getting on Browne and Brown's back about the part-time nature of these posts in a big way?

[Tony Makara]

Gordon Brown is sitting on a timebomb. The debt fuelled growth that he has encouraged carries serious inflationary pressures which are only being held in check by the strength of sterling.

The dilemma Gordon Brown faces is that in a debt fuelled economy plagued with inflation, raising interest rates will not work to quell inflation because the raised interest will created a further demand for more money than already exists, just like a pay demand, except that unlike a pay demand, the inflationary demand for more money than already exists will feed through the entire country. Gordon Brown ought to have allowed the economy to expand and contract naturally in line with market forces, but instead he has encouraged debt fuelled growth to make the government look good.

The thing bailing Gordon Brown out is the strong pound, however since july the pound has lost 3.5% against the dollar, 2% against the Euro and 7% against the Yen. So the decline of sterling is beginning to gain momentum, that is why Gordon Brown is likely to to go the country as early as October, before the pound begins to nose dive and unleashes those pent up inflationary demons.

[Treacle]

All the while we are behind in the polls Gordon Brown has the option to call a General Election and we will have to stay at 'actions stations', with much long term rebuilding work once again in limbo.

The excellent state of affairs for Gordon Brown comes after the equivalent of just an opening salvo which sent the Party into a tail spin.

The voluntary Party has understandably reacted with exasperation at the sight of its previously smug 'we know best' leadership running round like tarts in a nightclub raid at the first whiff of grapeshot and is understandably miffed at then getting a lecture from the same people about how THEY (the membership)shouldn't panic!!

'Call me Dave' has set the course we are following and has rejected calls to adjust the message - it's now up to him to prove his mettle and LEAD.

No more Huskies, No more Rwanda No more navel gazing about change, just get up and fight or clear off.

[Scotty]

"On a slightly different note, it must be assumed that Des Browne is giving a lot of his time to his Scottish part-time job. Given that he is also supposed to be running two of Blair's wars, one of which is seeing one of the highest casualty rates since the spring of 1945, ought the party now to be getting on Browne and Brown's back about the part-time nature of these posts in a big way?"

It would seem that he is busy changing his press statements from a couple of months ago to more accurately reflect Brown's changing mood regarding more devolved power now the SNP are in control in Holyrood.
It is obvious that he has been discussing this with Brown while they engineer a coronation for their favoured heir to McConnell.
Alas, there is no sign that he or his boss are discussing the deteriorating situation in Iraq or Afghanistan for our soldiers in the front line, although he has managed to send out a soothing statement for the press to counter the criticism and campaign being launched by BAFF and the RBL.

He is beginning to remind me of Comical Ali with his spin and ability to change the message as soon as the political wind changes direction. Just compare his statements on Scottish matters over the last couple of months, they are beyond parody. But his automatic need to issue regurgitated statements that everything is under control and progress being made in Iraq and Afghanistan are becoming meaningless in the face of the raising heavy toll of casualties being suffered by the armed forces.
Brown's judgement should be seriously questioned when he makes the position of Defence Minister a part time job at this time, incredible stupid and a slap in the face to the men and women who already feel this government does care or value them!

[Ken Stevens]

West Lothian Question and EU seem to be the only two areas where the Tories could demonstrate clear water from Labour.

Make a positive move towards resolving the constitutional imbalance between England and Scotland (and ditto re Wales. NI perhaps a different circumstance but at least stop mollycoddling a population somewhat less than that of West Yorkshire).

Entrench EUscepticism in your policy armoury.

[Ken Stevens]

The Huntsman | August 16, 09:56 AM

As an addendum to your survey of the emerging significance of the Scottish scene in UK politics, whatever one thinks about aspirations for independence, isn't Alex Salmond a remarkable chappie?

Won by a whisker without an overall majority yet is firmly leading the agenda. Transpose the situation to Westminster and it would be a hung parliament, a weak & ineffectual government and a rerun election not too long afterwards.

Where is our version of Wee Eck - in any southern party?

[The Huntsman]

I agree with Ken Stevens: so far he has been remarkably sure-footed and is clearly working to a well-thought out plan of 'death by a thousand cuts' for the Union, which I call "salami-slicing" on my blog.

Apart from the odd minor blip his troops seem to be well-disciplined, as you might imagine with a party tasting power for the first time. How long that will last, especially if a referendum comes sooner rather than later and is badly lost by the SNP, we shall see.

He is also in the 'smiling assassin' class of politicians: he always manages to look cheerful and personable even when he is trashing the opposition. I have a feeling, though, that he is not a man to cross.

The Tories in Scotland have become used to opposition, but Labour is almost comatose after the humiliation of loss of power. GB's Crony replacement will have a major job if she is to reinvigorate them but at the moment they resemble the proverbial decapitated chickens, save that they are not even running about much.

[Jay]

Back to Louise's article - excellent precis of the nightmare that everyday life in England has become for many people. We want to see more Tory shadow cabinet members much more often in the press, on TV, on the radio, everywhere, arguing these points and highlighting that Conservatives DO have answers to these problems. Where are you lot?

Just as long as it's not Redwood. Please don't argue for more airports and roads. Not good timing, or indeed a good idea.

[Scotty]

"He is also in the 'smiling assassin' class of politicians: he always manages to look cheerful and personable even when he is trashing the opposition. I have a feeling, though, that he is not a man to cross."

You are right, in fact he is not that popular in his own party which might surprise you. But like Labour back in the early 90's his party were savvy enough to recognise their chance and the leader that would deliver it, all they needed to do was become very focused, motivated and disciplined. Make no bones about it, the SNP's present success should be shared equally with the leadership and a very effective grass roots organisation.

[David Sergeant]

"I agree with your analysis on every single issue. I have just one problem. How does a man with this level of incompetence lead us in the polls?"

I would sggest it started going wrong over grammar schools. Voters arn't keen on them but the childish hysteria demonstrated by senior Tories suggested to voters this lot would have trouble running anything. The, substantially dishonest, anti Cameron hysteria in the supposedly Tory Telegraph would confirm that view to readers who were once Tory voters but had lost their enthusiasm. Then Swire demonstrated how silly and disconected from reality senior Tories are. This would have particularly reflected on Eton educated Cameron. (Remember the opinion poll which showed Brown miles ahead over peoples concerns?) IDS came out with support for marriage and with the subsequent enthusiasm people saw it as a swing to the right as a result of grammar schools, and now we have Redwood.

I would point out that many Tories claimed, quite wrongly that there was a U turn over grammar schools. What message does that send? And while we are at it Swire could have extracted himself from the museum mess if he had any political competance, but like most senior Tories he hasn't.

[Stephen Tolkinghorne]

"It's one thing to get people to be anti-Labour, but so far Louise, after weeks of your articles, I've yet to find a reason to vote FOR your tories."

Hear, hear !

[Yet Another Anon]

>>>>>After reducing Labour either to a hung parliament or an unworkable majority, Brown would not survive a leadership challenge from David Miliband.<<<<<
Labour has removed very few of it's leaders even when it has hated them, the only one to be removed so far was Ramsay MacDonald and that was over the formation of the National Government; Harold Wilson held and lost an early General Election in 1970 and lost, and then continued to lead as Labour in February 1974 ended up with what then was it's lowest percentage vote since 1931 and yet there were no moves to remove him. Clement Attlee remained Leader of the Opposition until 1955, Hugh Gaitskell lost as Leader of the Opposition the 1959 General Election, Jim Callaghan could have stayed on if he chose and fought the 1983 General Election, Neil Kinnock was Labour leader for 2 General Elections.

If Labour remained in government then I doubt there would be moves to remove Gordon Brown, indeed if Labour's vote held up but Labour lost I imagine that if Gordon Brown was willing that the Labour Party would allow him to fight a 2nd General Election. It is a mistake to assume that the Labour Party will behave with regard to it's leaders in the same way that the Conservative Party has.

[The Wilted Rose]

You're spot on in your analysis, Louise, in particular that Brown is very vulnerable in Scotland -- and anointing Wendy Alexander as McConnell's heir apparent won't help either. I've even written an article on my blog on this subject today!