The BBC/ITV exit poll suggests that the Tories will win 40 to 50 seats. Within that increased number of MPs there are a number of very high quality individuals.
This result will be better than expected and much, much better than the 14% Labour lead suggested by yesterday's ludicrous Populus poll.
But - make no mistake - the Tory performance is historically poor.
The exit poll predicts that the Tory percentage of the vote will be hardly up on 2001. For three elections in a row the 'natural party of government' will have flatlined at about a third of the popular vote. Individual seats will have largely been gained by Labour's vote dropping below the Tory tally - not Tories rising above a falling Labour vote.
Labour's lost voters are switching to the LibDems and 'Other' parties - not many are turning towards the Conservatives.
If the Tory Party was on the road to recovery it would be winning a significant number of seats from the LibDems and making real gains in vote share.
The Tories should have done better in this election. They failed to win moderate, middle class voters because of an unhealthy emphasis on immigration and 'Blair is a liar' playground attacks. A victory in the war of expectations should not stop the party undertaking a far-reaching post-mortem...
For the moment, however, let's celebrate the fact that Labour has lost fifty or more seats. With a majority of 60-ish the Labour project isn't going to be able to ignore parliament anymore. The danger of that is that Tony Blair may have to pay more attention to his most left-wing MPs. This could easily lead to higher taxation and weaker reform of the public services. All that would be bad for the country but good for the long-term prospects of the opposition parties. The challenge for the Conservative Party is to find ways of winning the lion's share of that drift away from Labour. We're back to that necessary post-mortem.
I was one of the few people worried that the Tories might do it. Had they had an economic policy, who knows what they might have achieved.
The Conservative share of the vote is up 0.6%, so the swing has been to the Lib Dems who have let Tories in. This swing also explains why Labour was able to win with the smallest share of the vote by a winning party. So the new government will be aiming to win back Lib Dem voters and, yes, it's more radical MPs will have greater influence.
Anti-Tories must hope the Conservatives kid themselves it was their night and hold on to Howard and particularly Letwin.
Posted by: Stephen Newton | 06 May 2005 at 08:02
.........So the new government will be aiming to win back Lib Dem voters and, yes, it's more radical MPs will have greater influence..........
If Labour and the Lib Dems now start a bidding war on the Left that is great news for us. The Yellows have somehow managed to sell themselves as all things to all men for too long. A little realigning of their image to match their reality would be very helpful
Posted by: EU Serf | 06 May 2005 at 11:22
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Posted by: bbn | 24 October 2006 at 12:57
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Posted by: JEROGatch | 14 November 2006 at 12:37