Dog whistles and a dog's breakfast are tilting the election campaign towards Labour (for now)

Labour have had a good week. The latest opinion polls suggest a modest swing towards Labour. Three factors probably account for this:

1. The TB-GB show. Many Old Labour supporters can't stomach Tony Blair but would love Gordon Brown as PM. Labour are following a strategy that IDS warned* of two months ago. Vote Blair but get Brown.

2. Immigration. Disillusioned Old Labour supporters may be 'coming home' because of the Tories' immigration policy. Immigration is certainly failing as a dog-whistle issue. Labour voters are hearing the Tory message and they are finding it ugly. They'll forgive Blair his Iraq policy in order to keep the Tories out.

3. Tax and spend. Over the last few days Labour mounted a sustained attack on Tory tax-and-spend policies. The Sun concluded* (unfairly) that Tory plans had been exposed as a dog's breakfast. If nothing else Labour won headlines and denied oxygen of publicity to the Conservatives' agenda.

The disappointing polls will probably produce negative commentary in the weekend's newspapers. Some will even say that the Tory campaign is in crisis. Such commentary is premature. This election was always going to be about getting out the vote. The pollsters are struggling to capture likelihood of voter turnout and how many people will vote tactically against Labour. There's still much to play for.

My hope is that the still-to-be-announced Tory tax cut will be focused on the lowest-paid. This will be an opportunity to present the party's compassionate agenda. An agenda that includes a 1,000% increase in drug rehab places, a higher basic state pension, school choice for inner city children and more policing of high crime neighbourhoods. My guess is that many voters - inclined towards the Tories - want some 'moral reassurance' that it's okay to put their cross in the blue column.

Comments

[Richard]

At last, an article on this site that is grounded in the real world. Point 2 above is exactly why I shal be voting labour, when I was planning to abstain over Iraq. The photo doctoring in Dorset was the last straw - typical of Soviet Russia and the Nazis - rather than British values which, I gather, Howard will be scaring people with today, when he is not telling lies about the rates of MRSA infection in local hospitals. (ps why do the Tories think this is a vote winner when it was them that put ward cleaning out to tender, to the sort of people who clean McDonalds toilets?)

[JEFF]

Although the Sun is conservative and the staff back Howard, it is owned by a foreigner called Rupert Murdoch.

Murdoch cut a deal with Blair.