Do Tories have the moral imagination to get above 40%?

The fact that the UK electoral system currently super-sizes Labour voters has been well-documented. Yesterday's YouGov/ Sky News poll may have given the Labour and Conservative parties 36% each but, translated into an election result, it would have given Labour a majority of 52. The electoral geography means that a 36% share of the vote gives Tony Blair 349 seats and Michael Howard only 212.

So polls showing the Conservatives pulling level - or even ahead - may mean that Tony Blair is at risk of losing his majority but they don't yet give Michael Howard hope that he can form a majority. To win a majority he needs 42%, 43% or 44%. And he needs to start winning Liberal Democrat seats.

There's not much sign of either happening at this stage of the campaign. The best recent poll (from Mori) puts the blue team on 39%. How can Michael Howard win another 5%?

Michael Howard needs to realise that perfectly proper ‘core vote’ policy stances - on crime amd immigration and travellers' rights - are not enough to win over moderate voters who want 'moral permission' to vote Conservative.

The Conservatives have excellent policies on pensioner poverty, international development, drug rehabilitation and school choice for inner city children. These policies need to be actively promoted if voters are to realise that by voting Tory they're voting for the common good, as well as in their own self-interest. Until the Tories do this, many people will prefer the LibDems' cuddly (albeit deceptive) image.

For background on the electoral hurdles facing the Conservative Party read this excellent article by Peter Riddell in today's Times.

Comments

[Stephen Newton]

This otherwise legitimate complaint, should be set in the context of the Conservative Party's firm support for the current electoral system. 'It's not fair,' you say. 'But please don't change it!'

[tom burkard]

In the spring 2003 issue of the Salisbury Review, I wrote that "The failure of the Tories stems from their inability of define and pursue conservatism in such a way as to unite the majority of Britons who are of a conservative disposition."

The article was "The Conservative Dilemma: The lesson of Nixon's 'Southern Strategy'". After the Republican's reputation was destroyed in 1932 by Herbert Hoover's economic blunders, the Democrats were the natural party of Government up until Nixon succeeded in winning the southern states in 1968. Passions against the Republicans were very hard to overcome, as they dated back from Reconstruction and the days of the Carpetbaggers. However, Nixon was the first president since the Civil War to nominate southerners for the Supreme Court, and although both nominations were defeated by the Senate, the South has been Republican ever since--despite the fact that southern schools were integrated under Nixon's watch. Since then, the Republicans have regained their status as the natural party of government.

The lessons for British Tories should be equally obvious. Unfortunately, their obsession with the impossible task of winning over the media classes have blinded them to the fact that all of the North--solid Labour territory--is intensely conservative. These voters are highly alienated from Tony Blair and anything to do with gender-obsessed media types. It is a mistake to assume that the historic hatred of Tories in these areas cannot be overcome. Unfortunately, the Tories do not have anyone of the intellectual stature of Richard Nixon. Just stop to think--although (or perhaps because) he is loathed passionately by nearly every media type in the US, Nixon still changed the face of American politics. I strongly recommend a full reading of my Salisbury Review article.

[Editor]

In http://observer.guardian.co.uk/politics/story/0,6903,1456177,00.html>this Observer interview* with David Cameron there are signs that the Tories may be moving into more 'one nation' territory this week with a promise of tax cuts for low income workers. Let's hope so...

[Edward]

I really like that.

Labour say: We take your money, then if we think you are worthy we give you some back.

Conservatives say: If you can't pay tax, you don't pay tax.

Although i think Letwin will probably offer to raise the threshold on the higher rate of tax which Brown has pinned down, thus increasing taxes on the middle classes, like a good socialist boy.

[bbn]

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