CentreRight

Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc

The title will be instantly recognisable to fellow fans of The West Wing, and Boris Johnson. "After this, therefore because of this" - the fallacy that an event that follows must be caused by a certain event because it preceded it.

It gives me no pleasure at all to say this, but clearly from the polling, John McCain is going to lose this race. And at the same time, he selected Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The left loathes Palin and therefore, McCain will lose. Right?

Wrong. He will lose, and the polling directly reflects this, because the US and world economy has fallen off a cliff. McCain was way behind until the Republican National Convention and his selection of Sarah Palin. Her speech in the face of personal attacks on her family was sufficient, improbable as it seemed, to put McCain ahead. Rallies with her were record-breaking. She then gave a couple of lousy - edited - TV interviews but in the unedited Vice-Presidential debate she triumphed.

Is the ICC big enough?

Packed doesn't begin to describe it. I thought I might pop into the main hall to hear George Osborne's panel discussion with voters who are feeling the pinch. Great format; instead of reciting a speech with dreary Brown-its statistics George discussed the economic crisis with actual voters; a guy who needed to drive from London to Bury to visit his parents and couldn't afford the petrol; an estate agent who watched his sellers despair as Labour ditherer on stamp duty.

But I'd be lucky. The queue to get in was thirty deep, security guards were exasperated. "how many does the main hall hold?" one woman asked plaintively. "1500," came the reply. We were directed in to an overspill hall. That was full too. People were clapping the giant monitor screens. A secondary overspill hall was rumoured to have seats. I gave up and went to find a fringe meeting. Have the Tories ever been this popular?

Is this picture photoshopped?

Gordon Brown's attack yesterday on David Cameron's parenting was spiteful, inappropriate, and just plain pathetic.

Especially since he's being economical with the actualite.

Here's a glossy photograph of his family, featured in this Daily Mail puff piece, written at the height of the Brown bounce last summer, detailing how "The Premier, wife Sarah and boys John and Fraser" like to go to "Dorset, where bucket-and-spade family holidays are alive and well". So unlike the Blairs, you see. The family, we are breathlessly told, "will have to muck in when they stay at a friend's home" instead of being "waited on hand and foot" like those dastardly Blairs.

Maybe it's all nonsense, though, and this PR shot is actually photoshopped. I'd like to see a journalist hand him the picture and ask for a comment.

Biden Meltdown

What does the Vice-Presidential selection tell us about the judgement of the nominee?

Was this a good governing pick? Is this person ready to be a heartbeat away from the Oval Office? Was the Veep candidate even properly vetted?

Yes, these are all questions being asked today - about the Democratic ticket.

I've blogged about Biden's gaffe-prone campaign before. But over the past couple of days he has truly excelled himself. Ask yourselves how the American media can look themselves in the face: had Sarah Palin come out with any of these gems the American press would have eaten her alive. But Joe Biden's different, you see; despite over twenty years of campaigning experience the press is willing to cut him a total free pass - because he's running with Barack Obama.

So just for fun, here are his latest comments: first, his denunication of the appalling Obama ad (video in link) attacking John McCain for not using email; McCain cannot type well, tie his own shoelaces or comb his own hair due to injuries to his hands sustained under torture for his country. Biden said to Katie Couric:

""I thought that was terrible by the way," Biden said...
Asked why it was aired, Biden said: "I didn't know we did it and if I had anything to do with it, we would have never done it."

The Obama campaign forced him to put out a clumsy retraction. But there's more... lots more...

That Tory landslide poll

An interesting snippet on the Politics Home superpoll of 282 marginal seats (biggest Lab > Con swing; the East Midlands - certainly fits with our mass canvassing here in Corby & East Northants). Informative insider Brownite blogger the Mole, a man with excellent New Labour credentials. says of this dynamite poll, predicting a majority for David Cameron of 146,  that:

"Labour is finding it hard to dismiss as 'just another opinion poll' the survey conducted by PoliticsHome.com, released over the weekend, which concluded that David Cameron is on course to win a 146-seat landslide at the next election. The survey was conducted among 35,000 voters in 238 marginal seats and echoes private research by Labour HQ kept under lock and key."

Tell me more, Deborah Mattinson. I'm all ears.

PS: you needn't peg your hopes on a complacent or arrogant Tory party either. We spent the summer hand-delivering surveys to ten and a half thousand voters and sending out personalised answers to every respondent; and will be rolling the project out across the rest of the constituency, amongst other campaigns, in the autumn and winter.

JK Rowling's magic wand

News today of JK Rowling's million pound donation to Labour may disappoint some of her more Conservative fans. Not me; I have long suspected she was a Labour supporter - there were plenty of clues in various interviews she has given. For a long time she tried to stay out of politics. I remember fondly her reply when asked by a child what Hogwarts houses Tony Blair and David Cameron would be placed in by the Sorting Hat. Well, Labour would be Gryffindor, because they're the red house, and the Conservatives would be Ravenclaw, because they're blue. Very diplomatic. I hope she did not have to bite her tongue wanting to throw us all into Slytherin! Politically, she is quite wrong in thinking David Cameron's support for marriage in any way condemns or victimises single Mums. The tax system works against marriage and parents staying together, and that is something any party that stands for social justice has to correct.

Rowling appears to be a personal friend of the Browns. Her donation may theoretically provide him a boost, but I think it is too late. Both the money and the PR could have been used by the party when the Westminster horse-race was more competitive. Now the Tories are on 52%, more than double the Labour share of the vote. Alan Johnson's intervention on behalf of Miliband, the timorous Piglet of political challengers, may be enough to finally encourage him to move when Brown loses the neighbouring seat of Glenrothes - almost inevitable as Labour's campaign manager downs tools, calling the battle a "no-hoper". Miliband is almost as much of a ditherer as Brown - writing his Guardian challenge article then sloping off on holiday for three weeks. A commenter on Political Betting came up with the glorious line "A Miliband is one thousandth of a bandwagon".

But if Rowling's donation cannot help her friend or Labour, it does, however, offer yet another piece of evidence as to her public spirited nature. Tony Blair gave every single donor to the Labour party of a million pounds or more either a knighthood or a peerage. Rowling's genius, her achievment in bringing back a generation of children to reading, her promotion of the UK, her charitable work, and now her wholly admirable donation to her party (for donating to a political party is a noble act of public service) demand recognition, and not with some paltry Damehood either. She should be made a life peer. She is a credit to her country and the party she supports.

What's up with Joe Biden?

There is another Vice-Presidential nominee in the race. I can't help thinking that the furore over Sarah Palin has thrown Senator Joe Biden a lifeline; the spotlight has been completely off him. You may be forgiven for asking "Joe Who?"

Biden has apparently been a gaffe machine on the campaign trail. Here is a post (with video) suggesting some of his campaign stops have been a little, ahem, "buffoonish". Bizarre, certainly. Biden recently referred to catching "Obama" on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border (he corrected himself, but still, a hell of a slip of the tongue). Asked about Sarah Palin, he referred to her as the "Lieutenant Governor". He may be the only man in America not paying the woman any attention, I suppose. He has also accused the driver of the car involved in the accident the night his wife was killed of being drunk; there was no such suggestion at the autopsy and Biden has had to retract :

"Since his vice presidential nomination, Joe Biden's 2007 statement that a "guy who allegedly ... drank his lunch" and drove the truck that struck and killed his first wife and daughter has gained national media traction.

Alcohol didn't play a role in the 1972 crash, investigators found. But as recently as last week, the syndicated TV show Inside Edition aired a clip from 2001 of Biden describing the accident to an audience at the University of Delaware and saying the truck driver "stopped to drink instead of drive."

The senator's statements don't jibe with news and law enforcement reports from the time, which cleared driver Curtis C. Dunn, who died in 1999, of wrongdoing.

"To see it coming from [Biden's] mouth, I just burst into tears," Dunn's daughter, Glasgow resident Pamela Hamill, 44, said Wednesday. "My dad was always there for us. Now we feel like we should be there for him because he's not here to defend himself."

Biden spokesman David Wade said Wednesday that the senator "fully accepts the Dunn family's word that these rumors were false."

It's unclear who first suggested alcohol was a factor in the crash, but since Barack Obama tapped Biden to be his running mate on Aug. 23, The New York Times, National Public Radio and The Economist have run stories that characterized Dunn as a drunken driver.

"The rumor about alcohol being involved by either party, especially the truck driver, is incorrect," said Jerome O. Herlihy, a Delaware Superior Court judge who was chief deputy attorney general and worked with crash investigators in 1972."

Biden has said some strong words in defence of Sarah Palin's family and some gracious words of personal loyalty for his friend John McCain. He is widely liked. But if the media ever turn their biased spotlight in his direction, I believe the "Eagleton scenario" may play out on the Democratic, rather than the Republican, ticket. Paging Senator Clinton?

Attagirl - Sarah Palin and the A list

Watching Sarah Palin hit it out of the park this morning I found myself moved to tears. She affected me on so many levels; as the sister of a girl who got pregant in her teens, welcomed and loved her child; as the cousin of a Down's syndrome baby; as a mother; as a "smalltown", OK, village, girl; as a politician; as a fiscal conservative; as a voter; yes, even as a thirty-seven year old who would sell something precious to look that damn good at 44.

But mostly as a woman.

Here's something to annoy many of the ConHome faithful; Palin is perfect proof that David Cameron's A list was the right idea, and that promoting candidates who look like the country mattered. I wrote the first major blog column in the country, I think, right here on CR guessing that Palin would be the pick. And I said she'd be electrifying. This is because she's a talented woman.

The A list was a correct response to the idea that women voters and voters from ethnic minorities feel excluded if 91% of the parliamentary party are white males. Don't give me your rubbish about the most talented man for the job, race and gender not important. The hell it's not. For one thing, women simply don't buy that 91% of the most talented candidates, by a remarkably consistent co-incidence, happened to be white men. They want to see candidates who look like them. Who they can empathise with.

Sarah Palin's pick as possibly the first woman in the OEB had plenty of women, who never thought they'd see the day, weeping ecstatic tears of joy. The validation was supreme. It's the American dream; after more than two hundred years of men, a daughter of the frontier gets her day at bat.

Sarah Palin and the misogyny of the American Left

Well, that didn't take long. Those lovely folks over at DailyKos have proved once again that there is simply no level to which they will not sink. The blog is hosting diaries that smear Gov. Palin and her sixteen year old daughter. They state that her Down's Syndrome son is really her grandson, and was the child of her daughter. There are worse smears even than that which I scorn to repeat on Conservative Home.

For the record, this link has pictures of Governor Palin when pregnant with her fifth child. It also contains timelines.

Madam President

John McCain's sensational pick makes Obama's dull choice look just awful.

There is a strong possibilty that we are being introduced to the first woman President of the United States. Unlike Mrs. Clinton, Gov. Palin achieved office on her own and not by virtue of her husband.

It's fair to say I'm thrilled at this decision.

Blogging from a phone, so more later.

Is Pawlenty a headfake for Palin?

The American right-wing blogs seemed certain last night that Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota was John McCain's choice for veep. Karl Rove himself called it for Pawlenty on Fox. The hot rumour this morning, however, is that Pawlenty will not be in Ohio and that Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska, former beauty queen and mother of five, including a baby with Down's syndrome and a son in the military, may be the choice.

Unlike Geraldine Ferraro, with the polls this close, McCain's VP may actually make it to the White House. In my opinion Palin would be an electrifying pick. Fingers crossed.

Get ready for a General Election

Saturday is normally the quietest day of the week for news junkies. Not today. As Fraser Nelson says on Coffee House, it's all kicking off. Brown is gone, ladies and gentlemen. Not even this Cabinet of Cowardly Lions could brief so desperately against him and fail to strike.

The Telegraph talks of ministerial plots. The Times says the knifing will be after the summer holiday. The Guardian says the Cabinet want an "orderly resignation". Deals are being done between Purnell and Miliband. Jack Straw amuses Fraser Nelson, and me, with his desperate positioning to be caretaker leader. Alan Johnson may have something to say about that, Jack. Labour's all at it. Ferrets - meet sack.

Some choice quotes from a bunch of indisciplined, sloppy Cabinet ministers who don't care how badly they knife their own party in the press (hey, great whipping there Geoff Hoon!). "We're a no nation party - can't win in Scotland, can't win in England, can't win in Wales," said one to the Telegraph. Another brave Cabinet minister confidently said to John Kampfner that there wouldn't be a Labour meltdown - "I think you exaggerate," came the reply. "We should win at least 100 seats next time."

There's going to be a coup. It was all about momentum after Glasgow East, the hope being the recess would save Brown. Looks as though that is not happening

And I can't resist blowing my own trumpet just a tiny bit - in 2007, when Brown was at his zenith in the polls, and credit was easy to get, I predicted all this would happen.

Have the SNP won Glasgow East?

Indications on the BBC, Sky, and the Guardian are that Davena Rankin may, following a strong campaign, have come third in Glasgow East and that the SNP may have won the seat.

The seat is one of Labour's safest in Scotland. A loss or even a close result would be an utter disaster for the party as a whole and not just Gordon Brown.

Happy Birthday Tim Montgomerie

Ah, yes, the great joys of Facebook, which informs me that today is Tim's birthday.

So I thought I would embarrass him by revealing the same on CentreRight.

Happy birthday Tim and thank you for ConHome, which buries every other partisan site in the UK blogosphere. Tim is doing business in the US and also has the excitement of the Glasgow East by-election to look forward to (vote Davena Rankin!). What more could a political junkie want?

Leftwing bias at the New York Times

All the propaganda that's fit to print?

Drudge has the story. The New York Times, America's "paper of record", printed a guest editorial by Barack Obama. Now since they'd like to kid the world that they are a balanced, unbiased news source (not a left-wing rag that's every bit as politically biased as Fox News) they pretended to invite John McCain to do a guest editorial as well, a right of reply.

The Republican nominee submitted his op ed - and had it rejected. The paper's executive, a former staffer for Bill Clinton, stated it was turned down because it had to "mirror Senator Obama's".

"We'd be happy to look at another draft," he smirked oleaginously. (Well, the characterisation is mine. But surely it's as impartial as the New York Times.)

Labour's shambolic campaign in Glasgow East

How did this fascinating article get overlooked? Since I combine green and fiscal Conservatism by reading all the newspapers online and for free, I can't be sure, but my screen appears to suggest that it appeared in the Times Literary Supplement for some reason.

Anyway, take a look and enjoy. One Brendan Perring infiltrates Labour's campaign HQ in Glasgow East and immediately, without any checks, is put to work. A few highlights, emphasis mine...

"I suspect that, had I been a monkey, I’d have been handed a pile of leaflets and pressed into action. Such is the sense of desperation in the Labour camp at the prospect of a Scottish National party victory next Thursday, that frankly, they can’t afford to be choosy about who campaigns for them."

"On one wall a supposedly motivational plea penned by Curran smacks of desperation. It is flanked by two more posters, reminding activists that “Proper Planning and Preparation Prevents Piss Poor Performance” and “Team Work Makes Dream Work.” Some chance!

Charts covering the dingy off-white walls showed every registered voter in the constituency for the purposes of voter ID planning and leaflet drops. On the wall next to them was a list of the areas covered — only a few paltry ticks at this stage.

I learn that canvassing now all has to be done manually after it was discovered that the English computer system, which produces printouts of constituents who have voted Labour in the past, doesn’t work in Scottish constituencies with tenements because it doesn’t recognise the slashed, double-digit addresses."

Miliband falls; Purnell rises

The first anniversary retrospectives did not make happy reading for Mr. Brown. The general conclusion was that the election that wasn't, Yellow Saturday, was what buried his premiership. He who hesitates is lost.

I'm starting to wonder if Mr. Brown is not the only politically lily-livered ditherer in the Cabinet. David Miliband's PM-in-waiting act is starting to remind me a lot of Gordon Brown. Regarded by his wing of the party as the inevitable successor (tick), as the Prime Minister plunges in popularity becomes longed-for by the other wing of the party (tick), refuses to act despite entreaties (tick)....

The difference between Brown-as-heir and Miliband-as-heir is that Brown only had one possible rival (Miliband) whereas Miliband has several. The chief amongst them is James Purnell.

Labour Cabinet Ministers Love John Lewis

Amazingly, MPs in the Commons have voted to retain the "John Lewis list" system, whereby MPs claim for furniture. They rejected external audits in favour of internal ones.

Gordon Brown wanted reform, but apparently he has as much control over his own front bench as Nick Clegg has over LibDem peers.

The BBC reports that more than 30 ministers voted to retain the John Lewis list - I'll be checking to see if Corby's MP was one of them. Those voting in favour of keeping the ACA included, amazingly, Jacqui Smith, Andy Burnham and David Cameron's predecessor in Witney, Shaun Woodward, for whom apparently the 20 million pound mansion and the butler are insufficent.

To top it all off, Gordon Brown's own PPSes voted for the ACA and only internal scrutiny!

Chris Grayling and Nigel Evans MP came out quickly with robust responses. The Beeb reports that David Cameron, on the front bench after the vote, was heard to exclaim "Where's the government?".

Where indeed? And will Brown do anything to discipline his Cabinet and PPSes? I wouldn't hold your breath.

You must be (expletive deleted) joking

As they disintegrate at the polls, Labour is losing its collective mind. Lunatic policies, unworthy of a serious government party, are being introduced in almost every department; Harman's non-equality bill, Jacqui Smith's proposal to mark kids as troublemakers at the age of 5, and now this.

I wish to God I were joking, but senior examiners are being instructed to award a child points for writing "f--- off" on an examination paper. If they add an exclamation mark, they'll get more points. For using the correct punctuation.

Points for rudeness and thuggery. Does anybody want to argue with me that our qualifications are not being dumbed down? As a mother of three, I am so furious. Labour's slumping standards are a betrayal of our children. I'd like to suppose this story will be the nadir of Labour policy, but I have no such confidence. Paging Michael Gove; the Conservative mission must be to rescue a generation being left behind.

Catholic Charities rebuke the UN in Zimbabwe

Caritas, the major Catholic Charity, has been forced to suspend its work in Zimbabwe following the brutality meted out to opponents of the government. Caritas has worked with the victims of Mugabe's forced "slum clearances" and concentrates on children, women and the most vulnerable. They have been feeding one million Zimbabweans direct, and their projects in the country have assisted a further two million. Now Mugabe's thuggery has driven out those who want to help.

The moral vacuum displayed by the UN and the so-called "international community" over Zimbabwe has come under strong criticism from the archbishops. Archbishop Buti Tlhagale of the Southern African Catholic Bishops Conference stated ""Quiet Diplomacy" is not feeding the people, but allowing the current structures to threaten the very survival of the extremely vulnerable." The bishops urged the Zimbabwean government to work with relief agencies from all religions, amongst others.

And indeed, as a Catholic myself I wonder if the tragedy in Zimbabwe does not belie the phrase "international community". Is there, in fact, an international community? Because nobody, including Zimbabwe's nearest neighbours or the U.N., appears to care. Kane's shrug from Genesis hangs heavy in the air. "Am I my brother's keeper?"

As three million Zimbabweans are deprived, at gunpoint, of church-led aid, the UN's answer appears to be "No".

Not a two speed Europe. A flexible Europe

David Cameron was proved right last week in his stance that he would not decide a Conservative response to Lisbon until it had cleared all its hurdles. The Irish voted no by a large margin. Since the treaty must be ratified by all 27 member states, it is now dead. Brown and Miliband are proceeding to ratify something that no longer exists. The Treaty has ceased to be. It is an ex-treaty. Logic, as we know, is not Labour’s strong suit.

Yet none of us can think the rejection of Lisbon solves the fundamental problem. There are two visions of what the EU should be, and they are not reconcilable. If our party doesn’t admit this basic truth, David Cameron and his eventual successors will be bogged down in the European question for decades to come.

And we simply can’t waste time navel gazing over Europe. We’ve got a country to fix. We should give up entirely trying to convert France, Germany and Luxembourg to our vision of the EU, and they should give up wrestling with us over ours. What is needed is a permanent solution that embraces both visions – a flexible Europe. It is the only answer when the unstoppable force of ever-closer union meets the immovable object of pragmatic nation states.

The sexist accusations against Caroline Spelman

Party Chairman is a thankless job. Absolutely vital, Cabinet rank but with none of the glamour and power of individual departments, it must consist of more complaints per hour than any other senior party post. Caroline Spelman is doing a tough job well. She has headed off trouble at the pass more than once, and the fact readers have not noticed it is to her credit rather than otherwise. Mrs. Spelman has overseen a period where the party has become united, efficient and enthused.

And she is now being pilloried by the BBC on absolutely sexist grounds. She should be robust in her defence.

Thank you, Jenny Scott

A sad moment for lovers of the Daily Politics. The talented and beautiful Jenny Scott is leaving the show to work for the Bank of England.

I've been a guest on the show a couple of times and enjoyed myself hugely. Jenny was a classically tough but fair interviewer; she tried to set guests at ease, especially inexperienced ones like ppcs; and I pay her the greatest compliment when I say I have no clue what her personal politics are.

In an age where some at the Beeb think we need dumbed-down political coverage, a la Jeremy Vine's Clegg shootout, Ms. Scott was a measured presence and a welcome relief.

Good luck at the Bank, Jenny. You will be missed.

A Tory feminist writes...

A good day for women in political life. First, some sense from the far left. Yes, you read that right. Cllr. Salma Yaqoob, (Respect) from Birmingham has spoken out about Labour's outrageous willingness to spit on ethnic minority women in pursuit of their electoral goals. Labour's lack of action on forced marriage is something I've blogged about before, but as a party they are always willing to overlook the rights of women if it serves other goals they consider "progressive". One example was their quango looking to reduce sentences on men for domestic violence and rape if the abuser merely expresses contrition. Another, of course, is postal voting. Labour knows full well that "community elders" take the votes of women under duress. Cllr. Yaqoob says in the Birmingham Post that ""A particular issue I want to raise is postal voting on demand. I want to call for it to be scrapped. Thousands of Asian women have been denied secret ballots and thousands of ballots have been stolen."

The Conservatives should reform this so that British women are not bullied out of their votes.

Secondly, may I thank Lord Kalms and Chris Gent? They are proposing anew that women be allowed to be full members of the Carlton Club. I hope to be a Conservative MP, and it is sheer nonsense that the major club allied to a progressive party like ours should bar women from full membership. Such is not the Conservative way.

I have defended the party's new direction against Lord Kalms before; and hope he is now persuaded of the true Conservatism of our leadership. But be that as it may, I am most grateful to him and to all other men in the Carlton ready to fight to put this anachronism in history, where it belongs. Thanks to David Cameron and Associations up and down the country, there will be a large number of new Conservative women MPs. The Carlton Club's raison d'etre is Conservatism, not masculinity. I trust it will take this new chance to put the situation right.

Labour PPC mocks major Crewe employer

The hapless Lucy Powell is Labour's PPC for Manchester Withington. She's written a piece for Comment is Free on the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

As she says, the constituency is "nearby" her own.

Not much local knowledge, then, Lucy? You'd think a PPC from the area would know better than to sneer like this:

"In this Labour town, they're not convinced that the Tory candidate will do this. (Driving around campaigning in Bentleys isn't helping)"

Bentley is, of course, a major employer in Crewe, and local people are proud of this exceptional British car. Incidentally, the link Lucy gives us is to a Mirror story calling the car a "luxury motor...gas guzzler". So, New Labour is not the party of aspiration anymore. Or employment in Crewe, either.