CentreRight

Charlie Elphicke MP: Chancellor seeks to protect public services in spending review

By Charlie Elphicke MP.
 
Rather than the predicted carnage, today’s comprehensive spending review will seek to protect public services. As best possible in the current difficult circumstances.

The numbers indicate that we see a real terms cut of 10% over the course of this Parliament. Yes, public spending will continue to rise each year in straight cash terms – see graph below for how things are expected to shake out. Yet in real terms, spending will reduce 2% or so a year over the Parliament.

What makes a great difference is the spiralling debt and debt interest payments. The Chancellor is moving at speed to eliminate the borrowing that is due to Labour’s fiscal incontinence rather than the recession. Even so, it will take the current Parliament to achieve and debt interest payments will still rise from £43Bn this year to £67Bn a year by the end of the Parliament.

It’s worth reflecting that we would likely have seen real public spending rises over this Parliament had it not been for the excessive borrowing and interest bill left to us by Labour overspending that has nothing to do with the recession.  This reality is small comfort to the Dover border guardian who keeps the nation safe, whose job is under threat. Likewise, the Kent rail commuter facing fare rises, the person on benefits who will be under greater pressure or the middle class couple who will lose child benefit. That’s why we must at every turn hammer home the message that these are Labour’s cuts. And why Labour should take responsibility and say sorry.

If we don’t stop borrowing now, we’ll never get out of it

By Charlie Elphicke MP.
 
The left still claims it would be possible to carry on borrowing and spend away. What would that look like? If we carried on with Labour’s borrowing plans, measured by the Office for Budget Responsibility before the Emergency Budget, we would have £144 billion more structural debt by the end of the Parliament. Debt that would cost an extra £7 billion a year to service by 2015-16.  To put it in context, £7 billion is more than the entire transport budget.
 
Worse still, Labour are still in denial on the basic fact they overspent for years and left the books totally unbalanced. If they had been just competent managers, the borrowing due to pure overspending this year alone would be over £109 Bn lower. As it is, it’s going to take most of this Parliament to balance the budget and get rid of this so called structural deficit (see graph below). Even so our national debt will still be £292 billion higher than it ought to be due to Labour’s fiscal incontinence.

Any debt counsellor will tell you, if you don’t stop now, you’ll never get out of it. And the longer you leave it, the worse it gets. What will take 5 years now would take a generation to sort out later. That’s just to balance the books. Dealing with the debt mountain itself is another thing altogether - no doubt the focus of the next Parliament.

> Yesterday's blog from Charlie: The true cost of Labour's economic incompetence

The true cost of Labour's economic incompetence

By Charlie Elphicke MP.

As we approach the comprehensive spending review, it is worth reflecting on the scale of the mess left by Labour. Labour’s mismanagement of the economy means that this year the UK will be borrowing £109bn that has nothing to do with the recession. This borrowing is purely and simply a case of spending more than we can afford.

The amount borrowed totals £4,000 for every home in the UK. Overspending at this level could enable everyone in the UK to have a new bathroom this year.  Over the course of the current Parliament, the total cost of this pure overspending will amount to an astonishing £292 Bn. That’s some £12,000 for every household in the UK. This kind of money is enough for a house deposit.

The graph below shows the poisoned legacy of Labour’s economic incompetence. The measures being taken by the Coalition simply seek to balance the books over the course of this Parliament. The level of Government debt will continue to rise as can be seen below – the continuing bill for Labour’s fiscal incontinence. We cannot sensibly spend more than the Government gets in revenue, especially when the nation’s credit card is maxed out. So by the end of the Parliament, Government will only be spending as much as comes in.

Big Society offers real power to the people

Big Society draws scepticism because it is hard to believe that any Government would willingly give up power and return it to the people. Yet people power lies at the heart of the Big Society. It has real potential and it would be quite wrong to write it off as window dressing, an updated version of the Citizen’s Charter, the Cone Hotline etc without at least giving the policy a chance to succeed.

 

Community empowerment comes in many different forms. For some, it is about taking over the local library. For others it is about recycling schemes, fast broadband, and village energy schemes. Yet it can be large scale too – like the Port of Dover project which is a project running into hundreds of millions of pounds. Leafing through Labour’s car boot sale, it is possible to see many more potential candidates for community take over – e.g. the Dartford Crossing, the Tote and the public forest estate. The broad thrust is so wide, many more possibilities exist – one could even see communities taking over neglected branch railway lines.

 

What links all these things? It is the difference community empowerment can make. People have a sense of ownership and interest in their local assets – it really becomes a community library. People (mainly) fund the projects. Far from being “cover for cuts” it’s about letting people reach into their own pockets to do the things they want to do which Government is not doing anyway. Taking the case of the Port of Dover Big Society project, which I know most about as the local MP, there is private sector funding available. I have been overwhelmed by the number of people locally who have said they want to invest their hard earned savings in Dovorian Bonds to assist the community take over. The purchase would cost the Government no money and lose it no money. It could be done quickly and the Government would have the receipt it wants by Christmas. Traditional style big clunking Government, with a traditional unimaginative Treasury approach, would flog it off on the cheap and fail even to get the receipt in this financial year.

 

Big Society is an acceptance that Government has so many things to do it loses focus. Communities are better placed to prioritise what’s important to them, are more motivated and more effective than Central Government ever could be. This is the true opportunity of the Big Society - the Port of Dover project alone would end the scepticism and show how transformation can take place at a speed no Government could ever match, at no cost to the taxpayer. So let’s not write the policy off yet. Why don’t we give it a go?

Big Society could be really... Big

Today David Cameron launches the first stage of the Big Society. This will see help for museum volunteering, encourage recycling and enable communities to buy their own pubs. Predictably the idea has been attacked at being "cover for cuts" by a Labour Party that increasingly has little positive to say.

Yet the Big Society idea could make a real difference. Where is it written that giving power to the people has to be small scale? These pilots are a good idea, yet I hope we will see the scale expanded in the near future. There is no reason why a project cannot run into the hundreds of millions of pounds.

This is why I have tabled a Big Society project for the Port of Dover to become a people's port. The port is worth hundreds of millions of pounds. Labour were planning to sell it off to the French or whoever for a quick buck in the car boot sale. Yet the community are saying if the Government wants to sell it, they want to be able to buy it. The plan I have put together is costed, funded and would ensure the port works better with the community and the ferry companies at Dover. This could be the Big, Big Society in action.

The Conservative technology revolution

The Conservatives' technology revolution has been written up in www.wired.co.uk, although it is only available in the hard copy magazine. Written by James Crabtree, who is more usually to be found writing for Prospect Magazine, the article provides an interesting overview of the widespread changes that technology has made to Conservative campaigning. It reviews the effort the party leadership has put into embracing what technology can offer and the excellent CCHQ operation led by Rishi Saha and Sam Coates. It also looks at how this impacts on candidates in the field - which meant an interesting day of James following me around the Dover & Deal doorsteps!

 

Reading this, it makes you realise just how much things have changed in the last few years. We now have facebook, twitter, serious campaign websites, photo galleries, youtube and deep campaign outreach on the internet. Labour have been working hard at catch up, yet the early planning ahead on the Conservative side has paid off in harnessing technology for campaigning. It is predictable that Labour commentators like Progress' Jessica Asato and Labourlist's Alex Smith seek to belittle the Conservative efforts, yet a real achievement has been made. And on the "unofficial" side, the impact of the Conservative blogosphere cannot be underestimated - as we readers of this site know only too well. However, even with all this technology, there is no alternative to the foot slog of door knocking, leaflets and getting the vote out on the day.

 

The harnessing of technology in campaigning has been a transformation. Yet the Conservatives plan a technology revolution in Government. The "post bureaucratic age" agenda will have a dramatic effect on Government at a number of levels. This term is quite hard to explain on the doorstep! So I have taken to describing this agenda as Government for the people, by the people and of the people - where everyone can have more of a say in what goes on in their communities and on what Government does more generally. The response to this is enthusiastic. The people . . . really have had enough of hectoring Government and want to have more of a say about what goes on.

Border security needs a Border Police Force

Today the Home Office trumpet their "great success" in the battle against smugglers, forgers and traffickers. Yet the numbers do not support the case being made by the Government. Labour has seen no notable success on border security during these last 13 unlucky years and Labour's record on human trafficking is poor.

In Parliament last Summer, a Minister stated that in the last five years, 568 arrests of human traffickers had been made, but resulted in just 114 convictions. A conviction rate of 20% is low - especially when you consider there is generally a victim involved who could give evidence

In Dover we have some idea of why this is. An example of a total mess in tackling human trafficking is this case reported in the Dover press and I'm told it's not unusual. There seems to be a lack of effective joined up Government and the Crown Prosecution Service seems not to be as effective as it could be. Our Border Officers also tell me their ability to act is limited by Labour's "Human Rights" legislation. Human Traffickers have rights too, apparently.  The Home Office also lectures Border Officers on how they must treat their "customers" ever so nicely under the Border Agency's "Proud to Serve and Protect" programme. 

Border Officers are particularly annoyed by the "target culture". They tell me that one month they did really well on heroin, but failed to find enough bushmeat. Were they congratulated for their success in keeping hard drugs off our streets? No - they were castigated for not getting enough bushmeat. It didn't matter that the smugglers fail to smuggle in line with Labour's targets. The Border Officers were expected to hit the targets no matter what.

We need to be doing better on the evil of human trafficking. And assist our Border Officers in keeping our nation secure, giving them the tools and support they need to do a very difficult job. This is why a Border Police Force would make such a positive difference to our borders and the security of our nation.  

A fair playing field needed for UK hauliers

Recently published statistics show the extent to which non UK registered lorries have been taking over our roads in the last ten years. The number of trips to and from Britain by non UK lorries has more than doubled in the last ten years to 1,672,000 in 2008. The figures also show that the number of UK haulage vehicles fell from 72,000 to 48,000. And, sadly, the number of traffic offences by drivers of non UK registered lorries has gone from 29,000 offences by non UK registered lorries in 1997 to 125,000 in 2008. These numbers include traffic violations from accidents to unsafe vehicles.

 

Much concern has been raised by UK hauliers about the future of their industry. These figures demonstrate that there is substance to their concerns. UK hauliers say they have to pay fuel tax, road tax as well as tolls while travelling overseas. Meanwhile they point to how non UK registered lorries are often able to fill up overseas and use the UK's roads for free.

 

There is nothing wrong with free markets and open competition. Yet competition must be fair and take place on a level playing field.  Ideas have been advanced for lorry road tolls, BritDiscs, fuel duty rebates and pollution congestion charges. Haulage is an important part of our transport economy - whichever method is chosen needs to level things up.

Brown details sell off plans

Today the Government published details of its sell off plans. Gordon Brown's "car boot" sale includes: the Tote, the Dartford Crossing, URENCO (Uranium Enrichment), High Speed 1, British Waterways and much more.

And further assets are now earmarked - including the Port of Dover and BBC Worldwide. Selling off the Port of Dover will come as a great surprise to the people of Dover, as a solemn pledge was given by Labour at the last election that they would not do this. Indeed, it became the touchstone pledge of their campaign in the Dover & Deal constituency. BBC Worldwide is an interesting case - especially as the way the Government are looking at it, a multiple of £102m (£2 Billion on a PE of 15) could be achieved, whereas it could potentially be worth closer to a multiple of £500m with appropriate reorganisation (£7.5 Billion on a PE of 15). Either way, it's noteworthy that the BBC doesn't now seem to be a sacred cow for the Government.

In principle there's nothing wrong with selling off excess assets. Yet it's unwise to sell assets too hastily in weak market conditions. So it is to be hoped that we won't see a firesale at the bottom of the market, as we did with Brown's Gold sale. The student loan book, which is less sensitive to current market conditions, could be a better more immediate candidate. And special caution must be taken with the security of our nation and her borders. For this reason, the sale of Urenco and the Port of Dover should be viewed with grave concern.

A richer destiny

David Cameron's speech to the CBI starts to set out how we can build a richer future for our country. This is incredibly important. As reported yesterday, our real pay packets have been pretty much flat for the seven years since 2002. Rescuing the nation's finances is only half the story. Building a greater future so that our nation is a richer and more fun place to be is essential too.

It is important that David Cameron debunked the idea that deficit spending is somehow a good thing. It's not. It's a fools errand. Recovery can only be built on sound public finances, not by Government sucking up all available credit to fund reckless defict spending. We need to spend less. And we saw clear measures set out to control spending.  The Conservatives have also set out an important and positive agenda for growth. Strongly pro enterprise. Lower corporation tax rates, on which the Conservatives want to go further, lower NICs for smaller businesses, getting business the credit it needs and upskilling workers.

This was a really important speech. It starts to move beyond how bad things are now to how good they could be. The richer destiny our nation could have with the Conservatives. People tell me constantly on the doorstep how they want to hear more about our plans for more jobs and money. Today's speech sets out that positive agenda. And it's essential, because after seven years of tiny pay rises. . . we rather need seven (ideally more) years of more plentiful pay!

Beware selling banks at the bottom of the market

We should all be interested in the Government’s manoeuvres with the banks. A good receipt in a few years is important to the nation's finances. If an unwise move is made now, Gordon Brown’s “car boot sale” might more resemble the “closing down sale” so lampooned in Private Eye. It really matters to us all now – and in ensuring our children’s futures are unscorched.

The Government is planning to force RBS to offload its insurance division, including Direct Line, Churchill and Green Flag. Meanwhile RBS-branded branches in England may be sold off as Williams and Glyn Bank. We also learn that RBS is also under pressure to shed some of its investment banking units. Lloyds too will likely have to offload some of its operations - including the Intelligent Finance internet banking division.

Now here’s the key question. When is the best time to sell off insurance, retail banking and investment banking businesses? Sure as eggs, now is not the time to sell of investment banking. Investment banking will likely be a growth story that would fetch a very good price in a few years time. Retail internet banking is also a growth story. Traditional retail banking resembles a utility in nature – except right now market sentiment does not favour it for a good sale price. Insurance has certainly been more stable, but share prices suggest now would not be a great time to sell. The insurance sector was far higher in 2007 and likely to be back to stronger levels two or more years from now.

The best time to sell such businesses is not likely to be now – and may not be next year either. The difference could be very substantial. Any move to stuff these assets into Gordon Brown’s car boot must be viewed with grave caution and substantial concern. Brown has form when it comes to selling at the bottom of the market and the nation simply cannot afford a repeat of the Gold sale fiasco.

Rebuilding the Enterprise Economy

The Financial Times is for three things: big public spending, big Europe and big unaccountable elites. The FT's editorial today is a classic, if disappointing, example of the genre. Too often in FT-World, the powerful, distant elites of Brussels and the UK public and private sectors seem to be the fount of all wisdom, to be rewarded to excess simply for being there. Democracy to them seems to be a sort of evil necessity that has to be put up with from time to time. In their World, we would have joined the Euro long ago, seen a new rise in the corporatism that so failed our land in the 1970s and continued to allow the richest to fill their boots with massive, unjustified bonuses.

 

No-one seems to have told the FT that things have have moved on. We now need to look to our national future. It's a real shame that the FT is so stuck in the past and so completely out of touch with modern Britain. Get outside Whitehall or the City of London and go to the doorsteps of places like Dover and Deal and people are incoherent with rage. Unlike the FT, they are patriots with a powerful sense of nation. They feel the excess of the bankers and the Labour Government have seriously harmed Britain.

 

Rather than wanting to see things carry on as they are, they invariably ask "will the Conservatives be strong enough to do what needs to be done" on the public finances. I look them in the eye and say we must be or we will have higher unemployment for longer and risk a lost generation of our young people. This is why for us it's not just about the Age of Austerity - it's about the return to growth, the rebuilding of the Enterprise Economy and the stronger Britain we could build together. It's about bringing success back to these shores, with more jobs and money.

Will 2010 be the internet election?

This video is well worth watching to get a sense of the impact the information age will have on election campaigning.

Mendip Media, the people behind the video, also build websites. An example is Mark Garnier's brilliant website for his campaign to win back Wyre Forest.

I'd be really interested to know where readers think this is all going. This is my take . . . Many people think the next election will be the first true internet election. While I find internet campaiging fascinating and six months is a long time in the information age, I'm not convinced. My sense is that web campaigning has not yet caught fire in the same way as it did in the US Presidential election. Traffic levels are good, but not yet transformative. Somehow the tipping point has not quite been reached.

Most likely is that in local campaigns and nationally, the broadcast and print media, lots of leaflets and getting out and about at fetes and community events will matter far more. A shoe leather election more than an internet election. But still . . . watch out for being done over on YouTube and be prepared for the election of 2014 / 2015 being a full blown information age election.

So it is coming down the line. The most likely scenario for now is that the internet will be important for finding and marshalling helpers, supporters and fellow travellers. And to engage effectively with younger people in our communities. This is the experience that I have had with using social media in Dover & Deal. Sam Coates' brilliant work on myconservatives may well surprise in how effective it will make campaigning on the ground. And engaging with potential supporters in the sort of conversation you can have with Web 2.0 and social media like Facebook and Twitter is an essential to turn "I might help" into "I am engaged and will help to make the difference." That seems a key difference between the old shop window web page and the newer two way conversation you can have.

Firesale!

The expected announcement today of the privatisation of £16 Bn assets owned by the Government is reckless and irresponsible. It amounts to a firesale.

There is nothing wrong with selling off assets or Labour's privatisation programme as a matter of general principle, but it is incredibly poor timing. Right now the values of all assets classes are low thanks to the credit crunch and the recession. So it makes no sense at all to be privatising assets. As a nation, we simply won't get the value out of them that we could and should.

What's the better strategy? To live within our means and get the deficit under control, which is the underlying problem. To wait for economic recovery which will bring with it a recovery in the value of assets. That's likely a three to six year horizon, not the firesale we are witnessing. And to take great care before selling assets that touch and concern the security of the nation - like Uranium enrichment. But then Gordon Brown has form on this doesn't he? We all remember how he sold our gold reserves at the bottom of the market. And we are all too keenly aware of his scorched earth policy which will see Britain's finances shredded ahead of a possible change in Government next year. We are witnessing an extension of Brown's scorched earth policy. This firesale is not in the national interest.

The Class of 2010

Conservative Way Forward kindly asked me to edit the Conference edition of its magazine, Forward!, which is available to download here as a pdf file (although be warned it is a very big file). It includes articles by Philip Hammond MP, Dr Liam Fox MP and Greg Hands MP, yet the focus of the magazine is on the "Class of 2010", the candidates who are standing for Parliament and what motivates them.

Obviously, there is no complacency. As David Cameron keeps saying, to elect a Conservative Government needs an historically big swing. In asking people to write - from a very wide range of seats - I gave a totally free hand on what could be written about. It's clear from the articles that candidates are very concerned about public services, are deeply compassionate, ambitious for Britain, looking for more decentralisation with power to the people and showing a strong desire to restore trust and confidence in our public life.

I hope this will make for an interesting read and demostrate how committed and thoughtful our Parliamentary candidates are. The magazine is also being handed out at the Conference in Manchester, so any Conference-goers should be able to pick up a hard copy.

Getting the best out of online campaigning

The Conservatives are leading the way in the blogosphere, social networking and online campaigning. So a few of us thought it would be a good idea to hold a fringe to discuss best practice and tips for success.

Rishi Saha, Head of New Media at CCHQ, will talk about myconservatives.com and all the other great things CCHQ are working on. Louise Bagshawe, Prospective MP for Corby, will lead on twitter, facebook and how the get the best out of social networking. Stephan Shakespeare, founder of YouGov, will look to the future and I will chat about campaign websites and online campaign building. Tim Montgomerie is the panel chairman.

Do come along. The fringe is on Tuesday, 12.45 for 1 in the Colony Dining Room of the Midland Hotel. It should be fun and there is a free buffet lunch as well! Click on the flyer (below) to get it in full size.

 

Charlie Elphicke: Getting to grips with what hundreds of billions of government borrowing will actually entail (and alas it may include tax rises)

By Charlie Elphicke

This year, the Government will borrow at least £180 billion. Over the next two years, the Government plans to borrow £360 billion.  By 2013, if things carry on as they are, the national debt will be £560 billion over the 40% of GDP level that the IMF says is sensible. These numbers are so big they lose all meaning.  They might as well be telephone numbers to most people.

So here I attempt to set out how large these numbers are in terms we can all understand.

With the amount the Government is borrowing this year, you could:

• Build an Emirates Stadium in every town in the UK;
• Feed every household in the UK for nearly three years; or
• Build a new secondary school, new primary school and a new hospital in every town in the UK and still have money left over.

With the amount being borrowed over the next two years, you could:

• Replace every car in the country with a brand new car;
• Renovate every kitchen and bathroom in the country;
• Pay the mortgage / rent and all the bills for every household in the country for two years; or
• Clothe every person in the land for 12 years.

And to pay down £560 billion? That would cost every household £5,000 a year over four and a half years.

What can we do about traffic jams and congestion?

There is nothing I hate more than traffic jams.  Sure, better public transport would help.  Major projects like High Speed Rail will make a big difference, yet will take time to come on line. And even longer to change the fact that the average person goes nearly 6,000 miles a year in a car, but just 1,000 miles by public transport (see table 11.4 here - little changed on the late 1990s as shown by table 10.6 here).

But it’s more than the tedium of sitting in traffic queues for an age while the kids scream in the back. It costs us money. Lots of money.  £20 Billion a year according to the CBI. And there’s an environmental cost too. We are not talking about a carbon footprint here, it’s more like a giant carbon boot. An hour in a jam results in about 2.36 Kg of Carbon according to the AA.  So traffic jams are an all round bad thing.

I write this as while stopping off on a trip recently I saw how things can be done better.  The (clickable) picture shows road workers busy on a Sunday.  A team was scraping off tarmac on one side of the road while on the other they were resurfacing.  The whole operation was being done at incredible speed. Often we see one person do the work while one or two others look on.  Not here – everyone was hard at it and very well organised.  Which made me think how an incoming Conservative Government could do much to tackle traffic jams and congestion.  Here are some ideas:

• Works on busy roads should be overnight or on days where road use is lightest. Motorway works should only be done overnight unless there is a very good reason not to;
• Rent a lane should be used as much as possible to encourage contractors to get a move on;
• It should only be possible for utility undertakers to dig up a road once a year in co-ordination with other undertakers except in real emergencies;
• Traffic lights should be phased to minimise jams and keep traffic moving; and
• The necessity for traffic lights that cause hold ups should be reviewed – anyone heading to Norwich by road lately will have noticed that the lights on the A11 through the Thetford Forest routinely cause long tailbacks polluting the forest . . . could a roundabout not make things go more quickly? There are lots of examples like this up and down the land.

We know that money will be tight for a Conservative Government. These ideas are not about big money – they are about how we can do more for less. And do more to protect our environment at the same time.

The tough choices are getting tougher by the day

The other day, the IMF warned that the Budget deficit this year and next will be some 13% - taking GDP at £1.4 Trillions, that’s over £180 Billion each year.  Meaningless eh? How about £15,000 a household over these two years. That’s the real cost of Gordon Brown’s economic incompetence.  We’re in the middle of the bitterest recession in 60 years.  The IMF warn that we risk a double dip downturn as well as 100% debt to GDP ratio in five years if action is not taken. The possibility of a run on Sterling is included for good measure.

The upshot of Brown’s misrule is that public spending will have to be reined in sharply - some say by up to £100 Billion - to have a hope of stabilising the economy. It will take time to alter things so we can do more for less. Ken Clarke is being honest in warning of higher taxes. History shows that tax rises may will be necessary in the short term, just as Margaret Thatcher found back in 1979. And that’s just to stabilise the public finances and close the budget deficit.  Paying down the national debt is a whole different ball game.

Every day Gordon Brown stays in office, the earth is being further scorched to the tune of nearly £500 million.  And each day the medicine that will be required to put it right gets stronger and more distasteful. Trident, ID cards, NHS IT projects, carriers . . . at these levels of financial chaos, all the big projects must be in the mix for the difficult decisions.  What do Centre Right readers think are the projects we must keep and which should be let go?

Road to hell in the public finances

As Matt Sinclair pointed out yesterday, the current Government's wrecking of the public finances looks set to result in a slashing of transport investment. By some £30Bn over ten years.

In our small island after 12 years of Labour Government, we find our roads are hopelessly congested, our railways are still very poor and our only air transport policy is "more Heathrow".  All these things are loathed with a passion by the vast majority of our countrymen. Yet what can be done? The public finances will take at least five years to put back together and we know deep down that Government spending will have to be slashed in many areas.  Transport investment is clearly going to take a hit whether we like it or not. And let's be honest, it may well mean that Crossrail and motorway improvement schemes are lost as Matthew points out. The depressing consequence of Labour's economic incompetence.

Yet there are options open to a Conservative Government to keep transport investment moving forward even in difficult times. The first is that it is possible to build new motorways. How? Through tolls for infrastructure. It's not something any of us like, yet it is an option and it may be the only game in town when the Government has no money. Second, any public sector subsidy required for the High Speed Rail network could be structured so it is provided at a later point - e.g. once it is built. And you never know, high speed rail might actually pay for itself more than people currently think. That sort of finance structure may be what is required to save the Crossrail project. Third, just because the Conservatives say no to yet more Heathrow does not mean we cannot have an expansion and renaissance in regional airports.  Those expansion projects should be self funding and should help drive regional economic expansion.

I don't know about you, but I really, really hate traffic jams. They drive me mad. There is an amazing amount of really boring stuff that can be done to cut congestion. Better road planning, traffic light management, more overnight maintenance and stamping out this wretched business of utility companies digging up roads every five seconds - which they still do! Often the smaller things make a bigger difference than the grand schemes. Years of anti motorist policies have weighed heavily in these areas. There is the potential here to make quite a few fairly quick and inexpensive changes. Changes that would impact positively on quality of life.

Lower, simpler business taxes are a good idea

The Telegraph is wrong to be critical of of the Conservatives considering a plan to lower business taxes. Lower and simpler business taxes are a good idea and will do much to spur the attractiveness of Britain as a place to do business. Reducing Britain's debt mountain is really important for all of us too.

The business tax system allows a lot of reliefs - notably for capital allowances and debt interest. Some of these reliefs could be reduced and the tax rate cut.  A "Lawsonian" approach. This means you get a lower tax rate and a simpler tax system. Discourage excessive debt by treating interest more like dividends and you encourage more equity investment. Can't pay a dividend? Well, the business passes on the dividend and can keep going until better times. Can't pay the interest? The business cuts investment or, worse, goes bust. Debt financing seems great on the way up - it is terrible on the way down. This is exactly what we are seeing. It has made the recession tougher than it needed to be.

So why then are some business interests so keen on debt being so tax attractive? Well a culture has grown up where interest is basically used to avoid UK tax. On an industrial scale. Large multinationals and private equity barons use this relief to reduce UK profits and get the money offshore to places where there is no tax - like the Channel Islands. Great for them, bad for the taxpayer, bad for all of us and our jobs in making the recession harder than it needs to be.

Now, debt is not always a "bad thing". It has its place. It is also entirely understandable that big business interests will hate any change in this area as it would put a stop to mass tax avoidance and stamp out much tax haven planning.Yet it is not right it should be tax preferred over equity financing as it is. As we can see from the effects of the recession, it would be better and fairer to enable a more level playing field between equity investment and debt, attractive to reduce the country's debt mountain at all levels and desirable to have lower, simpler business taxes.

The BBC must not slow the media revolution

Leading on from Tim's post, some politicians and candidates may be delighted by the attention he refers to, a few may even be swayed, yet most by far will think of who they serve. Like the person on £350 a week (the average wage in Dover & Deal) who struggles to pay the TV tax, frankly prefers Sky or Cable anyway, and would benefit from a more widely based and exciting media market.

And that must surely be the key question here for everyone in public life. Forget the nice dinner, the free DVD and the posh race course enclosure, the key question is does the BBC stand in the way of a more interesting media future for Britain and her people? It's much more than just a matter of questionable programming, excessive pay and the entertainment of MPs and candidates.  It's the mixing of public sector and profit making operations that enables the BBC to compete in the media market in unfair ways, including brand stretching. In any other walk of economic life that would be a state aid. Anyone who has been to the USA, and seen the vast ocean of choice, will see what I mean and understand how it could be.

Media is changing fast now, there is a great convergence between platforms going on and nothing - not even the BBC - can be allowed to slow this media revolution or damage Britain's chance to be at the forefront of it.

Reform must be deeper than choice of cloth

Time was the Speaker looked like a judge. Then, by turns, like a barrister, a solicitor advocate and now, it seems, not unlike a court usher. All much remarked on by today's press, but then who really cares what the new Speaker looks like? Surely what matters are that the reforms needed to restore trust and confidence in our democratic system are made at a substantive level.

 

And what we've seen so far gives rise to some cause for concern. We are told of a new law to imprison MPs for a year where expenses are fiddled. This is just another "we must be seen to pass some new (and useless) law" response. The criminal law caters perfectly well already for the likes of Morley, Chaytor and Moran. Prosecutions could successfully be made under the existing Theft Act and the Fraud Act. The bigger worry is the malaise is such that there is little public confidence the Police and the CPS will take any action and Concerned Citizens may well take the lead with private prosecutions.

 

We need to move towards proper reforms:

• Get rid of all personal type expenses and reset the salary at an appropriate level;
• Look again at reform to the House of Lords, introducing elected members in whole or part;
• Look again at party funding and impose a maximum limit of £50,000 per person or company (including unincorporated and every other form of association);
• Reduce the number of MPs - to 500 and no more - on "fair votes" boundaries;
• A recasting of responsibility and accountability towards the citizen - e.g. merge quangos into local authorities or back to Central Government, bring back powers from Europe - so people feel they can change things around them, have some say and fire decision makers through the ballot box.

There is a strong constitutional reform agenda that the Conservatives can pursue for the renewal of our democracy and our national life and David Cameron has indicated that he will indeed do so. It's necessary as the public mood is for reform to be deeper than the choice of public cloth.

The Chipmunk, the living dead and Octoberfest

You really have to hand it to Hazel Blears, don't you? They say no-one who crosses the Chipmunk ever lives to tell the tale and I can't help thinking they are right. It looks like she's really done it for Gordon Brown. We all thought he was sort of the living dead - increasingly grey, finished, but somehow he wouldn't quite finally go. The timing could not be more damaging and if I had to place a bet, I reckon this could finally tip it for Brown to go after Thursday and pave the way for an October election. What do Centre Right readers think?

Blears' resignation statement must be one of the most damning ever. Incredibly well drafted, with meaning built in at all levels, just about every line of it is critical of Brown in some way. A quick review:

"Today I have told the prime minister that I am resigning from the Government. [And I cannot tell you just how relieved I am]

"My politics has always been rooted in the belief that ordinary people are capable of extraordinary things, given the right support and encouragement. [Gordon is horrible and undermined me all the time]

"The role of a progressive Government should be to pass power to the people [He's a complete control freak, isn't he?]. I've never sought high office for the sake of it, or for what I can gain, but for what I can achieve for the people I represent and serve [He just clings onto power for the sake of it, he has no purpose or direction, has forgotten what he's for. He is just in it for himself].

"In this next phase of my political life I am redoubling my efforts to speak up for the people of Salford as their Member of Parliament. I am returning to the grassroots (where I began), to political activism, to the cut and thrust of political debate. [I am so relieved to be out of this wretched Government and to be able to focus on the things that matter to me - including getting revenge on Gordon Brown]

"Most of all I want to help the Labour Party to reconnect with the British people, to remind them that our values are their values, that their hopes and dreams are ours too. [We have to dump Gordon and start over right away.  No-one knows what we stand for anymore. We've really got our work cut out, haven't we? I want to be part of the Labour renewal.]

"I am glad to be going home to the people who matter the most to me: the people of Salford. [As far away from Gordon as I can get . . . Salford will do]

"Finally, there's an important set of elections tomorrow. My message is simple: get out and vote Labour. [I still believe in the Labour Party and I am loyal to the cause.]

What next?

As things rapidly move forward on the expenses saga, where do readers think it's all going to end up? I'd be really interested to know what people think. This is probably a very premature discussion, but here are some thoughts:

• David Cameron has marked himself out as being in touch with the public mood and as having the strength to run the country through the tough years that lie ahead.  It's astonishing to see how he is basically firing Conservative MPs while Brown sits on his hands. Note the "marketing man" jibes have dried up as he pretty much leads the country through the crisis as though he were already PM;
• A lot of MPs still don't "get it". Especially on the Labour side. The public want to see a lot of reform of our politics. Yet on the issue of the next Speaker, many Labour MPs say they support John Bercow MP because they think it will annoy the Conservative Party. John has many qualities that could make him a great Speaker, but his case being made on such a petty basis shows how far out of step with the public mood many Parliamentarians still are. They need to wake up and smell the coffee. This area is still developing rapidly and in unpredictable ways;
• While there is massive public rage, the public increasingly don't want simply to tear down the ramparts. There is a mood for changing the way we do things in a positive way. It's spreading beyond Parliamentary reform. On the doorstep people rage about powerlessness, quangos and the general lack of accountability (in the past they'd yawn about these subjects!). The mood seems to be swinging in favour of localism and democratic accountability.  That's a major opportunity for the Conservative Party;
• People are not just angry about MPs expenses.  This too is spreading into concern about the size and wastefulness of public spending across the board in the middle of a recession. Again, there is an opportunity for the Conservatives to put the case for tougher action on wasteful public spending.  On what Government should and should not do. There is also the potential for radical reforms like publishing all public sector receipts, spending and so on online. It would certainly make public sector spenders think very carefully about spending if it could be seen and they could be asked about it by the public.
• Voters are angry, turnout could indeed be low, but people seem a lot more interested in politics than they have been for a long time. Everything has been thrown up in the air in what could turn out to be a form of political revolution as Alan Duncan MP has suggested. There is certainly a greater opportunity to reshape things than has existed since 1979, probably since WWII.

All in all, the worst recession in 60 years, the deepest political crisis for maybe 100 years . . . both at once. This is a very interesting time to be alive! We might find ourselves bouncing our grandchildren on our knees in years to come saying "Did I tell you about 2009..."