Parliament may be winding down towards its summer recess but political eyes now turn firmly towards a busy September schedule.
The next two full parliamentary weeks will commence the process towards a referendum on the Alternative Vote electoral system, fixed term parliaments and a radical redrawing of constituency boundaries.
Whether or not the Coalition gets its legislative way over AV, I suspect that leading party strategists are already working through likely scenarios for the run-up to the next election. Both David Cameron and Nick Clegg realise that their political fates are inextricably tied to the success of the coalition, so its full term survival is probable.
Whilst prospects of a fully-fledged merger between our Party and a large part (if not all) of the Liberal Democrats are not as fanciful as many might think, I reckon this is highly unlikely to have happened by 2015. Instead I believe the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will almost certainly fight the next election as separate entities, but each standing on the basis of coalition achievements in government. Even if AV is on the statute book I reckon that defending a record in government will necessitate Conservatives giving most Liberal Democrat incumbents a free run in their seats. By way of reciprocation in the dozen or so Conservative-held seats most vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, candidates from the latter party would also stand down. Conservatives might also enable Liberal Democrats in marginal battles with Labour (in Scotland, the North and parts of London) a potentially easier fight by withdrawing from the fray. Who is to say that dozens of candidates will not take the hustings as ‘Lib Dems with Conservative coalition support’?
Yet here is the paradox. Such a formal pact in selected seats clearly aids vulnerable Lib Dem incumbents, reinforces the coalition but also critically makes any post-election coalition between the Liberal Democrats and Labour more difficult to sustain. However, any electoral strategy short of equidistance risks destroying the Liberal Democrats’ broad appeal and threatens its status as an independent political force.
Naturally any of this would require changes in Conservative Party rules.
However, importantly, the impending boundary reviews may assist in formulating such an electoral pact as no one can be sure of the precise constituency make-up until 2013 at the earliest.
In short even in the most marginal seats of the sort that might be subject to a pact, there is unlikely to be any opportunity to have selected a Conservative candidate for at least three years.
And as we know 156 weeks is a long time in politics…
