Despite opinion polls showing former Prime Minister Jarosław Kaczyński trailing Bronisław Komorowski by as much as thirty points in the race for Polish President, the first round held yesterday produced a much closer result.
With nearly all votes cast, the interim President Komorowski leads Kaczynski by a margin of 41% to 36% - a remarkable comeback for a politician whose campaign was mocked by the British media, amidst expectations of a first round Komorowksi victory.
In so significantly underperforming expectations Komorowksi is, despite scoring a narrow victory, the real loser in the first round of voting. It is a mark of Komorowksi's weakness as a candidate that Jarosław Kaczyński, often described by even the most loyal of his own supporters as an awkward man who ill at ease while on the stump, is widely believed to have run the most dynamic campaign.
Crucial to the chances of both Kaczyński and Komorowski will be the votes of third-placed Socialist candidate Grzegorz Napieralski who secured a better than expected 14% of the poll. While Kaczyński is as far removed from being a socialist as it is possible to be, his conservative message sits far more comfortably with the largely elderly and agrarian voters who backed Mr Napieralski.
Kaczyński still faces an uphill challenge as he heads into the second round on July 4th but it should be remembered that his late brother Lech had trailed Donald Tusk by a 36%/33% margin in the first round in 2005, only to later win the second round by an 8% margin.
There can be no doubt that this election is going down to the wire.
Good luck to Jarosław Kaczyński and our excellent Prawo i Sprawiedliwość allies in the European Conservatives and Reformists Group!