On Sunday the Flemish nationalist NVA party became the largest party in the Belgian parliament. What is the relevance for the UK? And, a question I have probably been asked close to one thousand times since I moved to the UK in 1994: will Belgium split?
First of all, our ally in the European parliament, the LDD classical liberal / libertarian party scored abysmally, and would not gain a seat in the next European parliament based on this result. This would mean losing representation in one EU state (25 MEPs from 7 states are needed to form a group). In this case, it would mean losing the very sound Derk-Jan Eppink MEP (LDD). Better start buttering up other parties sooner rather than later.
Second, the NVA seems to favour a nation state centered approach to the EU. It is also a centre right party. This could be good news as it is what we want. The NVA does currently not hold seats in the European Parliament. At the last general election they were in an alliance with the Christian-Democrats. Perhaps the Conservative Leader in the European Parliament Timothy Kirkhope MEP should take the tram to the NVA headquarters, bearing Cornish pasties (warm beer might not do the trick).
Thirdly, the result tells us a thing or two about proportional representation. 12 parties have seats in the national parliament. Forming a majority government is going to take a long time and a lot of horse trading. It always ends in more spending: each party wants spending increases for its pet projects and each region wants compensation for spending increases in the other regions. Guess who's paying.
Fourthly, Belgian history of the last forty years tells us a thing or two about devolution. What started from a very timid devolution in 1970 has now evolved into a near complete split, with only the army (that famous navy etc.), social security and the King remaining truly Belgian. Devolution creates a dynamic towards more devolution. It has always surprised me that since devolution started in the UK there has been no greater push from the devolved parliaments to devolve more. Though the Conservative / Labour divide between England and Scotland may very well start that dynamic.
And will Belgium split? It may prove as elusive as the breaking up of the Euro: even though it makes economic sense, what counts is whether the politicians want it. Technically, it is impossible as Brussels is unsplittable. Located in Flanders, it is mainly francophone with many households divided. Historically it was Flemish. So no one community will want to give it up.
There are very many politicians who have a vested interest in keeping Belgium intact: six parliaments with so many seats and ministerial posts to aspire to; a King who can dole out noble titles (even hereditary); and, most important of all: many more opportunities for spending as each region needs to be compensated for the increased spending in the other! And a never-ending finger-pointing at the other region to deflect from failures in one's own. Everybody talking about which language will be spoken in a small rural village town hall by a deputy clerk while the national debt has grown to be the third highest in Europe. Belgium is a career politicians' dream come true: more politics, less reality.
And yet, the economic considerations may yet do Belgium in: Flemish taxpayers are sick and tired of paying up for socialist benefit-dependent Walloons. A north-south divide: where have we heard that before? Flemish taxpayers revolted in the polling booths on Sunday.
