OK. So it was a really really stupid idea to have those debates with Clegg. Take that on the chin and get over it. Don't hope that it can all turn into a good idea really, as if Clegg will be "exposed" in the last two debates. First impressions last, and in the other two debates he'll be on strong territory: "We told you so about Iraq" then "Vince - blessed be his name - told you so about the economy." People will see attacks on Clegg now through the lens of the good first impression they had of him. Saying that the Lib Dems will keep Brown in power when they don't say they will (and pretty obviously won't) just looks desperate and hollow. The Lib Dem bubble might burst before the Election, but I don't believe there is any way that Conservative tactics can burst it.
No. There's no way we can, through effort and argument, put the Lib Dem genie back in the bottle. Attacking the Lib Dems is just a tactic for minimising the Lib Dem influence in a hung Parliament - it can't, itself, secure us a majority. So is a hung Parliament inevitable? By no means! We can still win, and handsomely - a solid overall majority of 50+ seats, even with a Lib Dem surge. But how?
What people are missing is the real story here. On these polls numbers Labour is finished, permanently, barring the unlikely scenario that Nick Clegg decides to rescue Labour from oblivion in a hung Parliament. If it polls 26% in a General Election having been the governing party for 13 years, with two opposition parties simultaneously polling in the mid-30s then Labour is gone, over, finished for our lifetimes. Clegg would be nuts to shore up Labour in coalition when by standing back he can replace Labour - standing back is his stated policy and it is the policy that all reason recommends.
And a 26% voting share may well flatter Labour. Labour's actual votes in elections have tended to be under its expressed voting share for decades - Labour voters don't come out on the day. And why would they do so this time, to support a Party that has utterly failed, has zero chance of winning, and is about to be humiliated by coming third. Who would really want to be part of that?
If these poll numbers continue to the end of this week, then Labour's vote share is in danger of capitulation. It could poll comfortably under 25%. And that's what we should be seeking to achieve. If Labour gets 21-22% then the Conservatives can get a serious overall majority on 34-35%. The Lib Dems can complain that their 37% poll rating deserved more seats and demand electoral reform all they want, but the Conservatives will have a solid overall majority and it will be game over insert coin for the Labour Party as a party of government.
All our fire should be on Labour. Ignore Clegg and the Lib Dems, beyond talking a bit more about Europe. People may not care that much about Europe, but once people see that they actively disagree with the Lib Dems about Europe, even if they don't think the European question all that important, they might pause and look a bit harder at other Lib Dem policies. (But don't imagine you can help them much - support for replacing Trident like-for-like isn't high; people might be concerned about their immigration policies, but the Conservatives can only mention them in passing (if only we'd talk about our own policies on immigration that might get us somewhere).)
Indeed, attacking Labour will also dent some of the Lib Dem appeal. For people want someone to blame for their current circumstances. They want to know who are the Guilty Men. The Lib Dem story is that the Guilty Men are the Old Politics, bickering with each other over a tiny piece of ground without any material differences of substance between them. We should not try to respond to this attack or deflect it directly. Instead we should focus on saying "There are the Guilty Men. It is Labour that has been in power these past 13 years. It was their failed banking regulation that created the worst recession of modern times. It was their indisciplined spending that created the worst deficit of modern times. It was the Speaker their backbenchers chose that oversaw the key abuses of the expenses system."
By doing this, we tap into two rich veins. First, we make Truth our ally - always the best ally in politics. Second, we facilitate people voting for us to Kick the Rotters Out when they've failed - the key function of representative democracy.
Labour has failed, and it deserves to be finished. If we keep our fire on Labour we can drive capitulation in its vote, turning the Election into a two-horse race between the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. In that race we are ahead on the seat distribution, not behind.
We can still win a good majority. Keep all guns on Labour. Make its vote capitulate. Let the Lib Dem vote look after itself.
