Brown had to win tonight and he bombed. He was wooden; his prepared jokes fell really flat (agonising to hear them repeated); his smile was a rictus; he interrupted much more than the others; he was boring.
Clegg won on energy and passion, as reflected by the instant polls. But what do the Lib Dems do now? The Seer Vince, last week, positioned himself close to Labour; tonight Clegg distanced himself from Brown's increasingly desperate "I-agree-with-Nick" ploys. The Lib Dems need to work out their position: do they exploit Brown's weakness and turn their fire on Labour, or do they stick with the Vince strategy and try to keep close to Brown? The Clegg approach is not the same as Cable's. How does this impact on their strategy for the rest of the campaign - do they defend in the South West, or attack in the North? On tonight's evidence, they are better placed to take votes from Labour than position themselves close to Labour.
Cameron did OK; his closing remarks were his high point, but he never caught fire. He missed some openings - he never tried to explain his most radical and exciting policy - Gove's school reforms (even though Clegg gave him an opening by praising the Swedish system). Nothing on the Broken Society (again Clegg used Conservative language abiut the conveyer belt to crime, which Cameron could have developed) . He didn't mention his big idea of the Big Society until the very end. He didn't communicate his hunger to change Britain. He didn't challenge Brown on his ridiculous assertion that opposing the NIC rise is to take money out of the economy.
For all of them: anecdotes about people they have met ("some of my best friends are...") are not the same as their personal experience of the system. David Cameron sounded authentic when talking about his own experiences of the NHS. But he needs to build on his performance tonight.
The debate on the economy will be vital. Some clearer announcements about the debt and deficit over the next couple of weeks may be needed to boost Cameron's supply of arms and armour. At the moment too many people blame it all on the bankers. We need to explain how much is Brown's debt, and how much is the Banks'.
