According to Mary Riddell: "Tory strategists say that winning this election is like carrying a Ming vase across a room. One stumble, and the treasure is smashed."
We have heard this election-lead-as-Ming-Vase talk before (see here and here). It is badly, dangerously wrong. If this is still the mindset inside CCHQ it needs to change. Today.
Ming vases may be precious. But they are fragile, easily smashed, brittle, hollow, static, inert and need wrapping in lots of cotton wool before being taken anywhere. They may look beautiful, but they are cool to the touch. You can admire even covet them, but they don't engage the heart. You cannot have a relationship with a vase. There is absolutely nothing in common between a Ming vase and what it takes to get in front and stay ahead in an election race.
Look down the road from Manchester to Aintree. Think horses: race horses, and steeplechasers in particular. They need to be nourished, exercised, trained, stretched, galloped every day. They have to take jumps, at speed. There's risk involved, but if you don't face the risk and overcome it you'll never win. They need guts and stamina. They are organic, dynamic, living creatures that capture hearts as well as heads.
An election's a race, not afternoon tea in a well-appointed country house. It's not about a precious vase full of pretty orchids; it's about being Desert Orchid.
You can campaign as if you are cradling a vase that you are terrified of dropping if you want. But you won't win, nor will you deserve to. And it doesn't smack of hope optimism or change. But if you acknowledge the risks and make sure you jump them and stretch every sinew until the end, you have every chance.