By Paul Goodman MP.
Fascinating piece here by Andy Cooke on PoliticalBetting arguing that we need only a six point opinion poll lead, all other things being equal, to form a Government after the election. I wrote here that all-other-things-being-equal we need a 10% lead - the orthodox view.
Cooke argues in effect that the three phenomenon which have most disadvantaged us in general elections since 1997 - our tendency to pile up votes in “safe” Conservative seats; Labour's tendency to distribute its vote more evenly, which helps it in marginal constituencies, and tactical voting for Labour - will vanish in the event of a 6% lead. Indeed, according to his table we'd be the largest Party in the event of a 3% lead. He ends by suggesting that his figures actually underestimate our lead in the event of tactical anti-Labour voting.
Does this mean that a Conservative Government should junk fairer voting and fewer seats? Not in the least. The change is worth doing in its own right - regardless of Party considerations. And if Cooke's piece has a single lesson, it's this: what winds one way during one election can wind a different way in another…
