The Internet could decide the election

As the Conservative poll lead shrinks ever smaller – to just 2 points in Sunday’s YouGov poll – the chances of a Conservative majority after the election are being cut it seems every day. “The Conservative Party has been eased to 4/7 from ½ (a 63 percent chance from 66 percent) to win a majority at the next General Election,” reads a Ladbrokes press release. “Not so long ago a majority for David Cameron appeared a formality. That’s certainly not the case now.” They can say that again. It may be that in future analysis this 16-point narrowing is observed as a blip, an odd polling phenomena that couldn’t be accounted for and soon corrected itself, but there is an increasing risk that it isn’t. I do not mean to cause alarm, or appear defeatist, but I fear that if we do not take heed of this warning then we could be just weeks away from a fourth Labour term. In so many ways I wish that we had never had the double-digit mega leads that have perhaps catastrophically engrained complacency, as good as they felt at the time. Even now we console ourselves in the belief that we are performing better in the marginals that matter most – perhaps we are, but are we performing better enough in enough marginals? – and that we can still win through effort – knocking on that extra door, calling that extra voter, delivering that extra leaflet – but there is a threat that this won’t be enough. With every vote now counting, the role of the internet could now prove decisive. Now my views on internet campaigning – particularly Twitter – are well known and not universally shared here on ConservativeHome CentreRight or with the Party leadership, but this one last time I will make the case. The situation we now face I will call the situation of increasing returns (though I welcome better titles), in which the closer the election the greater impact the internet will have. I concede that online campaigning may only sway a few voters – though point out this is true of all types of campaigning – but the closer fought the election not only does each vote count more but the greater the number of votes swayed by the internet becomes. In a tightly fought election people think far more about their decision, absorb more information, discuss more with others and research their options in a far greater degree. Whilst these things were once greatly limited, the internet has opened new possibilities. Where once there was a chat by the water cooler there is Facebook and Twitter, where once there was a few leaflets there is now Google. If we go into this election with the polls putting both the Conservatives and Labour within a few points, it could well be the internet which decides who enters Downing Street. A few years ago the Conservatives had a strong lead over Labour on the internet front, but the prospect of election defeat focussed socialist minds and today things are much more evenly matched. On Twitter - which I understand has 5 million UK users - Labour is ahead with several accounts such as Sarah Brown and Labour supporting Stephen Fry boasting 1-million plus followings. I have said before, but it is really time David and Sam Cameron joined. War does not yet seem to have been declared fully on YouTube, but if Labour supporters' billboard spoofing and the US Presidential Election are anything to go by then we can expect viral video (perhaps employing comedy) to be a feature. Viral advertising - spread by others and thus in part endorsed as a message by them - is without doubt the best form of advertising, and after the billboard spoofs turned up on the hotly contested Mumsnet I expect Labour will seek more such campaigns. (The Conservatives could perhaps establish a semi-independent team outside of CCHQ to focus on viral promotions?) In conclusion I guess this is a final plea for the internet to play a greater role, a final plea that the good work of CCHQ's New Media team is allowed to expand, be built upon, and be made as central to campaigning as can be. We cannot be complacent - we have to use everything and leave nothing - and at the moment we aren't using everything. With a 2 point lead - to borrow a phrase - we can't go on like this, we need to Twitter the message and get viral.