Six points with YouGov. Seven with ICM. Nine with Harris. Twelve with Angus Reid. Fourteen with Angus Reid in the top 150 marginals.
Confusing? Sure. But really, so what?
My heroine, Margaret Thatcher, famously said that when she left politics she was going to start a "rent-a-spine" business. It's time for every Conservative candidate and activist to ignore polls that are all over the place and get ready - finally - to take this fight to Labour. It would be nice if Brown had ever discovered his lost bottle down the back of the no. 10 sofa. But although sometimes it seems like nothing's happening, and politics is in a holding pattern - the fact is, Labour are out of ideas, out of money and most importantly out of time. Within just a few weeks Gordon will be forced into his car, kicking and screaming, and he'll have to drive down the Mall to the Palace. And we will be starting the most important election of our lives.
Paging the Spectator - who appear to have had something odd added to their tea of late - now is not the time for Conservative supporters to start whimpering and crying because we have a consistent poll lead over the government. Now is not the time to get out the onions and start the waterworks, because we're going to kick Brown out of no. 10. Sometimes I despair that in politics, people have the memory of a goldfish. Guess what, fact fans - we have fewer MPs today than Michael Foot had in 1983 at the nadir of Labour's political fortunes. Cast your minds back to the Tory leadership election. It was assumed, back then, that whoever won had the task of shaping the Conservatives into a good enough opposition that they might, repeat might, win an election in 2015. The idea that we could so overturn the political climate that we could win in one go was unthinkable.
Cameron's strategy has not changed. It's an election - of course Labour support might firm up a little. That's not our concern. Rather, we need to focus on the amazing opportunity, indeed the duty, of being confident, getting out there, delivering leaflets, campaigning. Really, haven't we all had enough? What are we in politics for?
Yesterday, on my way back to Corby from Northamptonshire County Cricket Ground, my agent and I listened to the news. Here were the stories:
1. Prime Minister denies Chancellor's public account of "the forces of hell" unleashed on him in a smear campaign.
2. Stafford hospital eyewitness account from relative of a terrified dying woman of patients begging for water, soiling themselves and wandering naked in corridors while staff "giggled" and ignored them.
3. And on the BBC website... 7 year old Khyra, literally starved to death in Birmingham after repeated visits to her home by police and social workers failed to raise any alarm.
This, ladies and gentlemen, is Broken Britain under Labour. As for the whining, we've been here before - in 2007. I don't want to hear it. Margaret Thatcher wouldn't have cared for one second. The polls go up, they go down, they range from 6-14 points. We must not be complacent, but ask any Labour MP. They are behind, 6-14 points. They know they are going to lose. We have to be calm, confident of victory, and have faith in our beliefs as Conservatives and the effort we need to put in. This is the best possible time to be a Tory. We have a priceless chance to make a difference, to get a government in that will fix our sinking economy, mend our broken society, and restore social justice and Britain's pride in itself. It's time we got back to aspiration and hope. We've been waiting thirteen years for this. Now is the moment. Let's get on with it. I tell you, this election cannot come soon enough for me.
