The elephant in the room

Earlier today, Tim posted on David Cameron's fourth anniversary as leader of the Opposition. ConHome has always been a "critical friend" of our party. Indeed, one reason why the centre-right owns the blogosphere is that loyal Tories, who would die in a ditch to see a Conservative government returned, are nonetheless willing to be critical and to debate, and that the central party accepts that without rancour, indeed encourages it.

This is not the Labour Party. We don't ask that you check your brain at the door.

That said, Tim's article asks if he's missed anything. And my answer has to be.. erm... yeah. While the article brings in, at number 10, the idea that we are now "on course" to win the next election, the party's breathtaking success in the last few years is hardly referred to at all.

Now, I know what (critical) supporters of the Cameron project ConHome have been. They campaigned hard for this party in every set of elections. I do not infer any deliberate minimising of what's happened in politics since 2005 at all. Rather, it may just be that all of us are now so used to being favoured to win by the bookies, that we have forgotten quite what a turnaround this is.

Our previous leaders steadied the ship and got us into a position where victory was possible. We all need to be grateful for that strength. But in the last few years, we have progressed over the line. In every single set of nationwide local elections since Cameron became leader, without exception from 2005 up to this summer, in the London Mayoralty, once regarded as a lost Tory cause, in Crewe & Nantwich and in Norwich North, the Tories have not just won. They have gained to a degree that made even Labour's "expectations management" look bad. They have outperformed the most optimistic estimates on polling sites like politicalbetting by about two to one.

Once it was said, as a warning of the impossible, that the Tories would need to be 10% ahead to win. These days, if our lead is a mere 10%, my Labour activist followers on Twitter are ready to break open the champagne.

Margaret Thatcher said that when she quit politics she might run a Rent-A-Spine business. So our average lead as of today is 12%. Clue: this party always, inevitably, loses polling points around Christmas. Has done every year since 2005. Second, all the polling data from the marginals suggests that tactical unwind means our deficit is not so large as usually supposed. Thirdly, please bring on a general election. I do not think we need the slightest adjustment in our method or tactics, speaking as a candidate in a Labour-held marginal seat. I just think we need an election. And maybe to stop and take stock, and ask ourselves whether, despite the natural human need to Monday morning quarterback, our leadership team isn't doing the kind of job that Alastair Campbell and Peter Mandelson would kill for.