So, there is to be no referendum on Lisbon, but instead the Party will simply seek a manifesto mandate to renegotiate. So far so good. But in a ToryDiary this morning we read the following near-quote from a frontbencher:
We can spend the next few years as a government devoting those hours to cutting the deficit, delivering world class schools and hospitals and rebuilding our inner cities. Or we could spend those hours on a war with Europe. A war that we probably can't win.
The thought underlying this quote appears to be that the path of least distraction is the path that does not involve a "war with Europe". And I suspect that this is the thinking of a number of people close to Cameron. Their priorities are the deficit, the broken society, and Gove's schools policy. They fear that a struggle with the EU would derail the Cameron administration and create splits in the Conservative Party. So, what they may have in mind is to find a few token aspects of our relationship with the EU - perhaps some aspects of the social chapter as was - in the hope that that might placate the Eurosceptics so that they can concentrate on the "really important" issues.
Let's set aside the question of whether these other issues are really more important than our position within the EU. Let us also set aside the question of to what extent we could really hope to deal with these other issues, in the long term, without dealing with our relationship in the EU. Let's just focus on the narrow tactical question: is it really true that the path of least distraction here is that involving the minimum of renegotiation? For I believe that's false. I believe that the sure way for Cameron's administration to be derailed and for there to be splits on Europe would be for Cameron not to seek a proper, genuine renegotiation of our role within the EU.
Three pieces of data: Opposition to the Lisbon Treaty amongst UK voters was above 80%. Only 16% of Conservative members on the last ConservativeHome poll were content to let matters substantially lie even after Lisbon ratification. Amongst incoming Conservative MPs in 144 of the top 220 most winnable seats only 10% were content to let matters lie at where they were even before Lisbon.
The reality seems to me to be that no incoming Conservative Prime Minister could hope to survive long without facing considerable opposition unless he sought wholesale renegotiation of our relationship within the EU. Indeed, I think it doubtful whether a Conservative Prime Minister not seeking such a renegotiation would last even a full term. Spilts within the Party would be huge. Many people would start openly calling for the UK to leave the EU altogether. There would be defections to UKIP. Europe would come to dominate the headlines and never leave them.
In contrast, the path of least distraction must surely be to run with the overwhelming, overwhelming majority of Conservative Party members, the heavy majority of voters, and the vast majority of Conservative MPs, seeking a considerable renegotiation. This would build political capital, rather than spending it, by garnering cross-party support. Many Labour voters, faced with a Labour Party in disarray after defeat, would find very tempting the excuse of supporting a Conservative government on the basis of regenotiation. It would also build good will amongst Conservative voters and MPs that could be employed in the very difficult battles to come over public spending cuts and tax rises.
It's surely much better to have the whole of Britain and your Party behind you, and have some tricky negotiations as the source of distraction, rather than to have simpler negotiations but face permanent discontent and distraction from within.
The path of least distraction is to have a true and proper renegotiation, engaging with the concerns of good Conservatives of the past twenty years. That is the path that will allow Cameron the most political capital and energy to spend on dealing with the deficit, the broken society, and schools reform. For this reason, if no other, this is the path Cameron should take.
